About the Institute for the Future

About Future Now


  • IFTF's Future Now draws on research and forecasting at the Institute for the Future, a Palo Alto, CA think tank specializing in the future of technology, health, and organizational change. It began in September 2003.

Who is Future Now?

  • IFTF's Future Now is a group weblog, founded by Institute research director Alex Soojung-Kim Pang in September 2003. Its contributors include IFTF researchers interested in emerging technologies, the future of Asia, and the social and economic impacts on new technologies; IFTF corporate affiliates; academic partners; and members of the Innovation Lab, a Danish futures group with offices in Aarhus and Copenhagen. A complete list of contributors is available here.

The Future of Cities - A conversation about global urbanization in the 21st century

Virtual China

51 posts categorized "Science"

April 22, 2008

The X2 project

For the last 6 months or so, I've been working on a big new project at the Institute. I haven't written that much about it, as we've been... quiet. Now, though, we're starting to take the project public.

The project is called X2, and its aim is to forecast the future of science, technology and innovation. The name may sound like science fiction, but it's actually an historical allusion. In my previous life as an academic historian, I studied the X Club, a group of Victorian scientists who were very interested in the future of British science. The Club formed when its members were still young, ambitious outsiders, fighting to establish their reputations in a world in which social connections and privilege mattered more than scientific achievement; by the time they retired, its nine members were among the leaders of British science.

Not only did they do well for themselves; they changed how we think about science. The X Club helped establish the idea that science was an essential ingredient for modern industry, a resource for national security, and a tool to improve public health and well-being. Now, the idea that science is important in modern society seems so self-evident, it's hard to imagine a time when people didn't believe it; but that was exactly the world the X Club confronted in its early years. As much as any single group of people, they created our modern view of science.

Finally, the group was interested in just about everything, and was incredibly hard-working. They lectured on a wide variety of subjects, published popular works, did ground-breaking research, and advised government-- and like many of their Victorian brethren, still took month-long vacations to the Lake Country or Europe.

As of today, the main site for the project is public. There's a FAQ that explains what we're doing in greater detail, but you should just go wander about and see for yourself what's going on.

Technorati Tags: ,

April 19, 2008

Post-scientific society

[Cross-posted from the new Future Now.]

I've been in Malaysia and Singapore this week, conducting workshops on the future of science and innovation. It's been a very interesting week, talking to scientists in Penang and Kuala Lumpur about the future of science, and what role they see Malaysia playing in that future. The people I've been talking to are pretty convinced that Malaysia, which has a respectable but not world-class scientific community, can evolve into a global player in science in the next couple decades. They don't want to emulate American and European institutions: you won't see multi-billion dollar particle accelerators here any time soon. But they're pretty aware that cloud computing, cheap genomics, and other inexpensive research tools will lower the economic bars to develop world-class competence in some important fields.

So I was especially struck by Gregg Zachary's latest column in the New York Times, which asks, "might cheap science from low-wage countries help keep American innovators humming?" At least a few policy analysts and scholars studying global trends in science think that the United States can profit from the growth of scientific excellence in the developing world.

Americans have long profited from low-cost manufactured goods, especially from Asia. The cost of those material “inputs” is now rising. But because of growing numbers of scientists in China, India and other lower-wage countries, “the cost of producing a new scientific discovery is dropping around the world,” says Christopher T. Hill, a professor of public policy and technology at George Mason University.

American innovators — with their world-class strengths in product design, marketing and finance — may have a historic opportunity to convert the scientific know-how from abroad into market gains and profits. Mr. Hill views the transition to “the postscientific society” as an unrecognized bonus for American creators of new products and services.

Mr. Hill’s insight, which he first described in a National Academy of Sciences journal article last fall, runs counter to the notion that the United States fails to educate enough of its own scientists and that “shortages” of them hamper American competitiveness.

The opposite may actually be true. By tapping relatively low-cost scientists around the world, American innovators may actually strengthen their market positions....

Precisely because the gap between basic science and commercial innovations is large, Mr. Hill’s postscientific society makes sense to innovators on the front lines. One implication for the future is that the United States “won’t have to import so many scientists,” says Stephen D. Nelson, associate director of policy programs at the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

The association, which for decades has generally favored policies to expand the ranks of American scientists, is devoting a portion of its annual policy seminar next month to talk about the “postscience” situation.

Industry, meanwhile, is adapting to a world where scientific goods can come from anywhere — and fewer scientists work on abstract problems unrelated to the market. “It is no accident that many corporate labs have fallen apart,” Sean M. Maloney, executive vice president of Intel, says. “They were science farms looking for problems.”

What is this post-scientific society that Hill writes about? As he explains it,

A post-scientific society will have several key characteristics, the most important of which is that innovation leading to wealth generation and productivity growth will be based principally not on world leadership in fundamental research in the natural sciences and engineering, but on world-leading mastery of the creative powers of, and the basic sciences of, individual human beings, their societies, and their cultures.

Just as the post-industrial society continues to require the products of agriculture and manufacturing for its effective functioning, so too will the post-scientific society continue to require the results of advanced scientific and engineering research. Nevertheless, the leading edge of innovation in the post-scientific society, whether for business, industrial, consumer, or public purposes, will move from the workshop, the laboratory, and the office to the studio, the think tank, the atelier, and cyberspace.

There are growing indications that new innovation-based wealth in the United States is arising from something other than organized research in science and engineering. Companies based on radical innovations, exemplified by network firms such as Google, YouTube, eBay, and Yahoo, create billions in new wealth with only modest contributions from industrial research as it has traditionally been understood. Huge and successful firms like Wal-Mart, FedEx, Dell, Amazon.com, and Cisco have grown to be among the largest in the world, not as much by mastering the intricacies of physics, chemistry, or molecular biology as by structuring human work and organizational practices in radical new ways. The new ideas and concepts that support these post-scientific society companies are every bit as subtle and important as the fundamental natural science and engineering research findings that supported the growth of firms such as General Motors, DuPont, and General Electric in the past half century. But innovation in these two generations of firms is fundamentally different.

The piece is well worth reading, as it has a number of provocative implications for science policy, innovation policy, and education. Essentially, Hill is arguing that a decline in America's monopoly on science-- even if that does happen-- is not to be lamented any more than the shrinking of the agricultural workforce: it doesn't reflect a weakness, but a more fundamental shift to a different kind of economy, in which the sources of value aren't facts, but what you do with them.

Technorati Tags: ,

March 22, 2008

New study on Chinese-EU energy cooperation

SciDevNet reports on a new study proposing cooperation between the EU and China on alternative energy research and development:

China and the European Union (EU) can significantly advance low-carbon technologies if they cooperate closely on technological development and market access, according to a new report.

'Interdependencies on Energy and Climate Security for China and Europe', outlines common challenges faced by the China and the EU in dealing with the impact of climate change on energy security — despite differences in their economic development.

The report was presented in Beijing last month (28 February). Contributors include UK think tank Chatham House and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).

In order to meet its fast-growing energy demands, China will need to add power generation capacity of 1260 gigawatts by 2030. And despite stable economic development, the countries of the EU will need to generate 862 gigawatts of additional energy by 2030 to replace outdated generation facilities.

If conventional technologies are used, both China and the EU will be locked in a high-carbon development model, the report warns.

But if they work together, the EU and China — which together account for 30 per cent of the world's energy consumption — could create unprecedented opportunities for global transition to low-carbon energy generation, says the report.

China's huge energy demands, low-cost manufacturing, and cheap local technological talent offer a shortcut for the production of clean energy technologies such as wind, solar and clean coal.

China has already produced 80 per cent of the world's energy-saving lamps — many of which are based on technology created in the EU.

The report recommends that EU research bodies establish research and development centres in China and increase the involvement of Chinese expertise in the development of clean energy technology.

It also suggests that the EU builds 'low-carbon economic zones' in China and establishes a joint technology platform to improve energy efficiency in the building sector.

Technorati Tags: , , ,

January 28, 2008

Use a sensor, go to jail

The Village Voice (via Jason) reports on a proposal in New York City to essentially have all environmental monitoring devices registered by the police.

Richard Falkenrath, the NYPD's deputy commissioner for counterterrorism... and Mayor Michael Bloomberg have asked the City Council to pass a law requiring anyone who wants to own... that detect traces of biological, chemical, and radiological weapons... to get a permit from the police first. And it's not just devices to detect weaponized anthrax that they want the power to control, but those that detect everything from industrial pollutants to asbestos in shoddy apartments. Want to test for pollution in low-income neighborhoods with high rates of childhood asthma? Gotta ask the cops for permission. Why? So you "will not lead to excessive false alarms and unwarranted anxiety," the first draft of the law states.

Last week, Falkenrath made his case for the new law before the City Council's Public Safety Committee, where Councilman Peter Vallone introduced the bill and chaired the hearing. Dozens of university researchers, public-health professionals, and environmental lawyers sat in the crowd, horrified by the prospect that if this law passes, their work detecting and warning the public about airborne pollutants will become next to impossible.

Given how important environmental sensors are to all kinds of scientific research, not to mention environmental activism (e.g., monitoring of pollutants in low-income neighborhoods), this seems like a pretty extreme move.

But Falkenrath pressed on, saying that unless the police can determine who gets to look for nasty stuff floating in the air, the city would be paralyzed by fear.

"There are currently no guidelines regulating the private acquisition of biological, chemical, and radiological detectors," warned Falkenrath, adding that this law was suggested by officials within the Department of Homeland Security. "There are no consistent standards for the type of detectors used, no requirement that they be reported to the police department—or anyone else, for that matter—and no mechanism for coordinating these devices. . . . Our mutual goal is to prevent false alarms . . . by making sure we know where these detectors are located, and that they conform to standards of quality and reliability."

Futurists regularly talk about the potential for cheap environmental sensors to serve as tools for sustainable development, more efficient energy use, etc.; I'm not sure how many of us (or how many computer scientists, ecologists, and others) ever thought that it would make sense to have the police "know where these detectors are located, and that they conform to standards of quality and reliability," any more than they would have a compelling interest in making sure all clocks and watches were accurately set. It'll be interesting to see how this unfolds.

Technorati Tags: , ,

January 24, 2008

Miguel Nicolelis and the future of Brazilian science

Despite the fact that I'm quoted in it, Scientific American's recent story on Miguel Nicolelis' plans to build a network of institutions to improve Brazilian science is worth reading.

Convinced that science is a key capable of unlocking human potential well beyond the rigid hierarchies of academia—and outside the traditional scientific bastions of North America and Europe—his other big project has been nothing less than a quest to transform the way research is carried out in his native Brazil. In the process, he believes, science can also leverage economic and social transformation throughout the country. The heart of Nicolelis’s vision is a string of “science cities” built across Brazil’s poorest regions, each centered on a world-class research institute specializing in a different area of science or technology. A web of education and social programs would intimately involve surrounding communities with each institution while improving local infrastructure and quality of life. And the presence of these knowledge-based oases would spark a Silicon Valley–style clustering of commercial scientific enterprise around them, jump-starting regional development.

One of the most notable aspects of his vision is that it reaches down into primary education-- something that's very unusual for science city projects that tend to focus on attracting major multinationals or luring in world-class researchers.

In Nicolelis’s view, reaching children well before college age is crucial. He believes that science education strengthens critical thinking skills in general, and he plans to use improvements in the children’s regular school performance as a benchmark for the effectiveness of the supplementary classes at institute science schools. If some of the kids become interested in pursuing science and technology careers, they will find plenty of opportunities in the knowledge economy. “Ninety-nine percent of scientific work doesn’t require a Ph.D.,” he insists.

Technorati Tags: , , ,

January 09, 2008

Enhancement isn't just for athletes any more

For years there's been anecdotal evidence, and a couple surveys, suggesting growing use of drugs like Ritalin and Provigil by undergraduates looking to get an edge over the competition. Now, some faculty are starting to claim that professors have started doing it, too:

While caffeine reigns as the supreme drug of the professoriate, some university faculty members have started popping "smart" pills to enhance their mental energy and ability to work long hours, according to two University of Cambridge scientists.

In a commentary published in the journal Nature last month, Barbara Sahakian and Sharon Morein-Zamir revealed the results of their informal survey of a handful of colleagues who study drugs that help people perform better mentally....

But brain boosting raises hackles in some parts of academe. "It smells to me a lot like taking steroids for physical prowess," said Barbara Prudhomme White, an associate professor of occupational therapy at the University of New Hampshire, who has studied the abuse of Ritalin by college students. After recent revelations about the use of performance-enhancing drugs in professional baseball, she sees parallels between athletes and assistant professors. "You're expected to publish and teach, and the stakes are high. So young professors have to work their tails off to get that golden nugget of tenure."

The poll was not meant to be a comprehensive study, said Ms. Morein-Zamir, a research associate at Cambridge. Rather, the essay, "Professor's Little Helper," was intended to provoke a public discussion of whether society in general, and universities in particular, should regulate the use of available compounds and medications that might be developed in the future. "If a drug helps you be more alert but also make better decisions, how does society feel about that?" she asked.

The essay, published in Nature, is a rewardingly geeky piece that includes a long discussion of how these drugs work, and what dangers exist in their use.

Technorati Tags: , ,

December 07, 2007

Finally, an inexpensive solution to the Chinese Hamster Ovary cell transportation problem

Wired reports on a impressive piece of improvisational science: while waiting for their lab's equipment to arrive, UC Merced engineering professor Michelle Khine, an expert in microfluidic systems, and her research group "designed complicated patterns in Auto CAD, printed them onto Shrinky Dinks, and then heated the plastic toys in an inexpensive oven."

As the sheets became smaller, the lines of print would bulge out. Taller and more pronounced, the miniaturized pattern served as a perfect mould for forming rounded, narrow channels in PDMS -- a clear, synthetic rubber.

In addition to making some simpler devices, Khine and her team emblazoned a Christmas tree design into a piece of PDMS and showed how it can blend different types of food coloring to make a rainbow pattern. Since microfluidic devices are sometimes used for biological research, the young professor also showed that Chinese Hamster Ovary cells can flow through through the narrow channels.

An article published in the Royal College of Chemistry's journal Lab on a Chip describes the lab's

rapid and non-photolithographic approach to microfluidic pattern generation by leveraging the inherent shrinkage properties of biaxially oriented polystyrene thermoplastic sheets [those would be the Shrinky Dinks-- ed.]. This novel approach yields channels deep enough for mammalian cell assays, with demonstrated heights up to 80 µm. Moreover, we can consistently and easily achieve rounded channels, multi-height channels, and channels as thin as 65 µm in width. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of this simple microfabrication approach by fabricating a functional gradient generator. The whole process—from device design conception to working device—can be completed within minutes....

Unlike the expensive setup and laborious processing required to make the silicon wafers, this approach only requires a laser-jet printer and a toaster oven, and can be completed within minutes. Moreover, we can achieve multi-height designs within the device, which typically requires a laborious and iterative process using standard lithographic approaches.

A few weeks ago I pointed out Attila Csordás' article on DIY biology. This is another data-point suggesting that the DIY biology world isn't close-- if you're ingenious and have the toys at hand, it's here.

Technorati Tags: , , , ,

December 04, 2007

American students rank 17th in OECD scientific literacy survey

The Chronicle of Higher Education (sub req) reports on "an international assessment of scientific literacy among 15-year-olds" conducted by the Program for International Student Assessment, sponsored by the OECD. The assessment

shows American students to be scoring slightly below the average for the group of 30 nations that sponsored the test, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.... The United States posted an average score of 489 on a 1,000-point scale (with the mean set at 500), placing it just above the Slovak Republic and Spain, and just below France and Iceland [and 17th overall]. The top scorer was Finland, with an average score of 563, followed by Canada, Japan, and New Zealand.

A close examination of the results for the United States shows that racial and ethnic gaps in educational performance contributed to the nation's mediocre showing. The average score for non-Hispanic white 15-year-olds in the United States was well above the international average, at 523, but black U.S. students posted a mean score of 409—below the averages for every other OECD nation and all but eight of the 27 non-OECD nations and jurisdictions. The average score for Asian-American students was a 499, while the average for Hispanic-American students was 439.

The entire report is available at the National Center for Educational Statistics.

October 30, 2007

Small quake

We had a small earthquake here in the Bay Area this evening. On the Peninsula, where the Institute is located, it probably lasted about 30 seconds or so, and buildings shook a little; but nothing fell over.

Seconds after it was over, I started getting IMs from colleagues, asking if I'd felt the quake too, and how long it had lasted. It was my kids' first earthquake, and so naturally I wanted to explain what an earthquake is (though without the part about the near inevitability of the Bay Area eventually being hit hard by a Hayward Fault quake); so naturally, I fired up Google Earth, found the USGS report (5.6, not so small), and showed them where the epicenter was:

Earthquake

The red star is the epicenter, and the yellow pin is where we live.

A little later, I was curious to see what fault it was on, so I went back online, grabbed a KMZ file from the USGS showing the locations of Bay Area fault lines, and added it into the mix:

Calaveras

Now I could see it was on the Calaveras Fault, not the Hayward, as I'd assumed.

We at IFTF write a lot about how visualization tools create new interpretive possibilities, and how the existence of substantial, free data sets creates new opportunities for amateur science. Turns out we're right.

Technorati Tags: , , ,

October 22, 2007

And with this post, I'm going to sleep

I've recently been dipping into the literature on the neuroscience of memory and futures thinking, trying to figure out if there are insights from this work that can help futurists do their work better. After a few months of reading about inter-temporal decision-making, the tangled relationship between memory and imagination, and why we make bad decisions, my eye finds brain-related news pretty quickly. Like this piece on sleep research from the New York Times:

Scientists have been trying to determine why people need sleep for more than 100 years. They have not learned much more than what every new parent quickly finds out: sleep loss makes you more reckless, more emotionally fragile, less able to concentrate and almost certainly more vulnerable to infection. They know, too, that some people get by on as few as three hours a night, even less, and that there are hearty souls who have stayed up for more than week without significant health problems.

Now, a small group of neuroscientists is arguing that at least one vital function of sleep is bound up with learning and memory. A cascade of new findings, in animals and humans, suggest that sleep plays a critical role in flagging and storing important memories, both intellectual and physical, and perhaps in seeing subtle connections that were invisible during waking — a new way to solve a math or Easter egg problem, even an unseen pattern causing stress in a marriage.

The theory is controversial, and some scientists insist that it’s still far from clear whether the sleeping brain can do anything with memories that the waking brain doesn’t also do, in moments of quiet contemplation.

Yet the new research underscores a vast transformation in the way scientists have come to understand the sleeping brain. Once seen as a blank screen, a metaphor for death, it has emerged as an active, purposeful machine, a secretive intelligence that comes out at night to play — and to work — during periods of dreaming and during the netherworld chasms

Technorati Tags: , , ,

DIY Biology

We do a lot of stuff here at the Institute on user-driven innovation. As one of the first nodes on the ARPANet-- the original "users are driving innovation" playground-- and a place that's followed the evolution of online collaboration pretty much since Day 1, it's been interesting to see the concept go mainstream in the last couple years. Now it's clearly spreading from IT and the Web to other areas, including biology. Attila Csordás encouraged bio-DIYers, "do not hesitate:"

[I]n the not so distant future, self-aware citizens may manage their own stem cells, grow them in the garage, and store them in the fridge. It could be a form of autonomous medical self-insurance.

Incredible as it may sound, the basics of molecular biology - what is DNA, how genetic information is coded, how it turns to RNA, which base triplets fits to which amino acids, the building blocks of proteins, that make up your body - can be learnt within 2 hours. Another intensive two weeks in an official lab with an instructor and you can work with them.

Csordás argues that if you can learn the basics of PCR and in vitro cell culture-- both of which are now relatively cheap, well-known technologies-- you can do it. Baris Karadogan (at From Istanbul to Sand Hill Road) draws out some implications:

Welcome to open source science, welcome to do it yourself biology.... With so much information on the Internet and such ready access to scientific data, what Attila wrote about could very well be commonplace in 5-10 years. This is a world where people could be "playing around" with their own biology. I see two big impacts right away.

First, tinkering is the best way to invent things, and this would really push the envelope in scientific and practical discovery. Second, if you think governments are having a hard time figuring out the laws to govern file sharing, let's see how they'll deal with "amateur genetic engineering". This will be a huge issue. Imagine people coming up with "user generated biotechnology".

Update: Attila points me to a recent interview he conducted with biotech startup founder Jim Hardy. "Make no mistake," he argues: "biotech is the next IT."

Technorati Tags: , ,

August 02, 2007

Sharkrunners: Real World Sensor Grid Feeds Hybrid Reality Science Game

IFTF friends area/code, a pervasive game design consultancy based in Manhattan launched Sharkrunners last week on the Discovery Channel's website as part of the 20th anniversary of Shark Week celebration.

Some of you may be aware of my fascination with all things marine and nautical, which I'm trying to record over at the Blue Economy Blog. But Sharkrunners is more than just an aquageek's dream. It's a multiplayer web game that's drawing down real sensor data from a collection of sharks that have been tagged off the coast of California by marine biologists. As the real sharks' positions are plotted using real-time GPS tracks, you move your virtual science vessel around to chase them. When you encounter a shark you are presented with options to send divers down to collect data, which results in additional research funding or sometimes SHARK ATTACKS! that can injure your researchers.

This is a great example of sensory infrastructure being used in a novel way for fun and learning, and it will be very interesting to watch as others find ways to extend this model.

July 26, 2007

Evolutionary algorithms, and design vs. understanding

This week's New Scientist has an article on evolutionary algorithms (sometimes also called genetic algorithms) and debates over their use. Put simply, EAs "mimic the processes of natural selection and random mutation by 'breeding,' selecting and re-breeding possible designs to produce the fittest ones." They might start with two current designs for an antenna, and generate a number of offspring that borrow characteristics from both. The offspring are tested; most fail to work and are discarded, while the survivors are matched up, and the cycle is repeated-- a few thousand times. The result is a new antenna design that is better than any of its ancestors.

Some of the biggest successes with EA (or evolutionary design, or artificial design, take your pick) have been with technologies where the scientific foundations aren't very firm, or don't work as well as you'd expect. Antenna design, for example, has had some notable successes with EA, in part because, as NASA scientist Jason Lohn notes, "Maxwell wrote down the four equations which govern all of wireless communication.... They describe the physics, but the weird thing is, you never use them. In practice, this field is so squirrely, the only way to learn is through trial and error. It's the school of hard knocks."

These methods have been around for a while, but they seem likely to become more widely accessible soon:

[Traditionally, EAs have required] ultra-fast computers, both to breed the thousands, or even billions, of generations and to simulate the results to select those offspring that are fit for re-breeding. This has limited their use to a few niche applications.

That is now changing with the availability of ever more powerful computers, the advent of distributed computing "grids", which pool the resources of thousands of PCs, and the emergence of multicore chips, which suit EAs because it's easy to divide up the tasks between cores. As a result, designs can now be evolved in days rather than months or years and EAs are going mainstream.

As one evolutionary designer recalled in 2004, "When I started doing this, I was running my simulations on a single Pentium 66 [MHz] PC.... That meant I had to be real careful with how large my problems were and how long it took things to run. Now, you can brute-force things a lot more easily."

So why if these methods work, and are becoming more accessible, why are they controversial? Here's where things get really interesting.

Proponents of EAs say they could replace traditional methods in many fields from designing exotic new types of optical fibre and USB memory sticks to more aesthetic computer-generated art. Critics argue that the technique may lead to designs that can't be properly evaluated since no human understands which trade-offs were made and therefore where failure is likely....

Essentially, some worry that these designs might perform better, but if we can't understand them, we won't know know what hidden costs or disadvantages they carry-- until it's too late. NASA scientist Lohn puts it a different way: he sees EA as forcing people into one of two schools of thought.

"One school of thought says you need a black box that does X, Y and Z. If I use evolution to get something that does X, Y and Z, I don't care what's in it as long as it works."

And the other school? "That one says, 'I need to understand what's in there,'" Lohn says. "Those are the people we can't really help, because a lot of times, we don't know what's in there."

So ultimately, the question isn't whether these designs work, but whether it's important for us to understand why they work.

Technorati Tags: ,

July 10, 2007

All the World's Science Parks Gather in Barcelona, and I Learn About A New Model for Tech Transfer

I returned Friday from the annual congress of the International Association of Science Parks, an organization formed 20+ years ago at Sophia Antipolis in southern France - one of the early "technopoles" featured in Manuel Castells' and Peter Hall's classic study on science parks and science cities.

The world has come a long way since that first meeting... and since Castells and Hall looked at science parks and science cities in the 1980s. There were over 800 people from hundreds of science parks around the world at this conference - evidence that, while commercial success may not be widespread, science parks have become a popular tool in the arsenal of economic developers. Even in Bloomberg-ian capitalist Manhattan, we've got the city actively involved in orchestrating the development of the East River Science Park, intended to house a small but vibrant set of research hospital spin-offs. At the conference, I even met an ambitious young scholar trying to put together the plans for a science park in Windhoek, Namibia.

My talk focused, among other trends, on the long-term shift away from science parks and science cities, to science that is embedded in cities. At IFTF, Alex Pang and I have been trying to document and understand this trend over the last few years - first as part of the Delta Scan's 50-year look at the future of science and technology and more developed in our 2006 Ten Year Forecast.

Perhaps the most interesting presentation I heard was by the president of the Alfred Mann Foundation, A, Stephen Daums. Alfred Mann is the third largest philanthropist in the world, after Bill Gates and Warren Buffett, and has been funding the creation of major centers for accelerating the transfer of biomedical technology out of universities into the marketplace. Twelve centers are planned, and 3 are currently in operation (at USC, Perdue, and Israel's Technion). Each center will receive a $100 million dollar endowment and a $70 million grant for operating expenses, and will focus exclusively on selecting promising research for commercialization, assessing market potential, and shepherding the project through to commercialization. It's too early to tell if this will be a success, but I suspect that down the road we may owe thanks for some truly game-changing biomedical technologies to this novel model for technology transfer.

July 09, 2007

The world's most pessimistically-named science park

Contrast the glittery language of Biopolis or Phase Z.Ro with Oxford's science park... Begbroke. Though it's probably the only science park that can confidently trace its history back to the Domesday Book.

Technorati Tags: , ,

June 13, 2007

Another example of tagging in science

I've recently been interested in technologies that allow scientists to tag animals (and other things), and how those technologies have been getting smaller and more powerful-- or rather, since that trend is pretty much a given, what difference it makes.

While catching up on my RSS feeds, I came across this report from May about tagging isotopes to track the migration of baby clownfish-- sort of Jacques Cousteau meets Finding Nemo:

A team tagged two species of reef fish larvae to see where the juveniles were going after spending weeks and even months maturing in open sea.

It found most of the orange clownfish - made famous by the Finding Nemo movie - and vagabond butterflyfish returned to the reef where they had first hatched....

"Marine fish lay very small eggs, and when they do, they are released into the water column," explained co-author Professor Geoff Jones from James Cook University in Queensland, Australia.

"They develop into a really tiny little larvae that we think drift around in the water currents, sometimes for months.

"The missing link in our understanding of coral reef fish has always been: where do the larvae go?"...

[To track the larvae, the scientists captured] female coral reef fish from a small 0.3 sq km reef in Kimbe Bay, Papua New Guinea, and injecting them with a rare, stable barium isotope.

The females pass this isotope to their developing offspring where it accumulates in their bones, giving the baby fish unique chemical signatures.

A few weeks later, the team returned to the reef and collected young fish to test them to see if they carried the "tag".

"We found that 60% - well over half - were coming back to the small island reserve, which was an unexpected result," Professor Jones told the BBC.

Technorati Tags: , , ,

June 04, 2007

Has the Higgs boson been found?

Slate reports on some fairly serious rumors that scientists working using the Fermilab Tevatron have found the Higgs boson, right where the standard model says it should be. The Tevatron is supposed to close in 2009, and so "as time runs out for America's biggest atom smasher, some nervy experimentalists have jumped the gun."

So why could this be bad news for physics? Two reasons.

[T]he standard model... happens to be clunky, boring, and infuriatingly silent on the Big Questions that the final theory of physics was supposed to answer. Questions like: Why is there something, rather than nothing? And where does gravity fit in? If the standard model turns out to be a complete description of particle behavior, as the discovery of the Higgs would suggest, these questions may never be answered.

Not only that, but it would also mean that a vast-- nay, cosmic-- jump in accelerator power would be necessary to keep particle physics going. How cosmic?

[T]he standard model predicts that you'd need a machine roughly a quadrillion times more powerful than the LHC to find anything new. With current technology, this would mean an accelerator the circumference of the Milky Way....

That's why particle physicists, and the EU member states that have spent Nepal's annual GDP to build this accelerator, are hoping that no one, in Chicago or Switzerland, finds the Higgs. The future of high-energy physics lies with the small chance that the standard model is wrong, and something exotic happens at LHC energies.

Ironically, finding the Higgs boson might profoundly change the way particle physics research is done. For decades, high-energy physics has been driven by a combination of spectacularly big, complex (and expensive) machines, and astoundingly sophisticated theory. If it becomes impracticable to build those machines, then the game changes in a basic way.

Looking a littler closer to home, this could mean that CERN's Large Hadron Collider-- which is going to go operational very soon, and was designed to look for the Higgs boson-- might go down in history as the Maginot Line of Big Science. Though Anthony Townsend, always looking on the bright side, contends that as a computing infrastructure project it was still probably worth it.

Technorati Tags: ,

May 09, 2007

'Intelligent' cars as fuel-efficient as hybrids

via Slashdot and Physorg,

A study released today reveals that cars with traffic flow sensors built into them can perform just as efficiently as hybrids; The concept of an 'intelligent' car that communicates with the highway or other cars is an old idea, but the idea of them using sensors to anticipate braking could vastly reduce fossil fuel consumption. From the article, 'Under the US and European cycles, hybrid-matching fuel economy was reached with a look-ahead predictability of less than 60 seconds. If the predictability was boosted to 180 seconds, the newly-intelligent car was 33 percent more fuel-efficient than when it was unconverted.'

May 02, 2007

Biopolis and the new urban science

I spent last week in Singapore, speaking at a conference on RFID in Asia, and visiting with various futures groups in the Singaporean government. But the thing I was really looking forward to doing in my free time was not shopping (though the shopping is very good), nor the food (which was excellent): rather, it was the chance to see Biopolis.


biopolis sky bridge, via flickr

Biopolis is one of the cornerstones in the Singaporean government's effort to turn the city-state into a regional (indeed, global) center for biotech research. Novartis and SKB already occupy parts of two buildings; five others are mainly occupied by labs run by A*Star; and two more are under construction. Over the long run, they want to build more local talent in the basic sciences underlying biotech, and support the development of a native biotech companies.


map of biopolis, via flickr

Not only is it architecturally very exciting-- the best contemporary Singaporean architecture is all post-Rem Koolhaus and Zaha Hadid swooping lines and glass, Biopolis also beautifully exemplifies a couple trends in the design of spaces for science that Anthony Townsend and I wrote about in the 2006 Ten Year Forecast (warning: it's a huge PDF-- 24MB).

Technorati Tags: , , , ,

Continue reading "Biopolis and the new urban science" »

April 10, 2007

The Best $95 I've Ever Spent: The New York Academy of Sciences

For any readers in the New York area, I highly suggest you pony up $95 for annual membership in the New York Academy of Sciences. Not only do you get a host of email and print updates, their lecture series (at their newly installed HQ in 7 WTC) are outstanding. Just in the next week, I'm going to see:

The Science of Taste: Molecular Gastronomy
Speaker: Hervé This, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Paris

Biology and Art: Two Worlds or One?
This
conference will explore the nature of the science-art interface, the
inspiration this interface provides to scientists and artists alike,
and the impact of these interactions on art, research, and other human
endeavors.

Brain Science: New Syntheses
Host: Steven J. Pinker, Harvard University

Speakers: Bruce Lahn, University of Chicago; Rebecca Saxe, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
In
tonight's New Vistas lecture, a leader in the field of cognitive
neuroscience moderates a discussion with two researchers who explore
how the physiology of the brain gives rise to our experience of mind.


And I do believe its 100% tax-deductible.


March 21, 2007

Is brain drain bad?

The conventional answer is a resounding "of course." And certainly a dynamic in which wealthy Western nations drawing away talented minds from the developing world looks like a zero-sum game, with clear winners and losers.

After all, people can't be in two places at once. Further, while they might have notable careers in the West, they give up the opportunity to have a transformative impact on public health systems, universities, civil society, public culture and the world of letters back home.

Finally, to add insult to injury, in some fields-- particularly medicine and nursing-- the people who leave were trained, sometimes at government expense, by their home countries. It's bad enough to have that promising young scientist go to Oxford for his D.Phil and never return; it's even worse to lose a virologist trained at the national university.

But is brain drain really such a zero sum game? A Nature editorial (sub req) suggests that it may not be. Brain drain, it notes, is still

a policy fixation in European science, a concern for at least three-quarters of American states, and, most of all, a major strategic headache for developing countries.

In South Africa, for example, the government has demonized institutions that train doctors and nurses who leave for employment elsewhere. It has taken steps to penalize those state-trained health professionals who choose to leave.

But South Africa is wrong. Its perception of the brain drain — as a simple transaction in which the recipient gains and the donor loses — is, at best, incomplete.

One data-point is a recent study by economist Michael Clemens on the impact of health professional emigration on African health care systems. As Clemens writes:

Conventional wisdom says that, because low-income countries need skilled professionals to develop, their migration to better-paying countries is unequivocally bad--when they leave, poor countries lose engineers' ideas, lawyers' contracts, and physicians' care. So the recent surge in the international mass migration of highly skilled workers has many worrying: will the loss of skilled professionals stymie development?

What's the answer?

[I]mpeding the migration of skilled health professionals, by sending and receiving countries, does little to improve health systems or heath outcomes in Africa.

The Nature editorial argues that this apparently counterintuitive conclusion makes sense:

This is not so strange, when you think about it. Countries and professions with more openness and greater mobility of personnel are more likely to be in touch with global trends — and more likely to attract able trainees in the first place.

In other words, all the arrows point the same way. Countries that have people who are well-trained enough to be attractive on the global market are more likely to have better medical systems and educational institutions, and to be more a part of scientific and professional worlds-- in other words, they're not the poorest countries, but ones that aren't doing too badly.

Finally, there's the role that these emigrants play as sources of global connections-- and hard cash.

The tendency of perhaps half of today's emigrants to return home later on in their careers is another factor. So is remuneration and the large amounts of cash that migrants send back home. These changes make the old model of immigrant 'donor' societies obsolescent. Communities can benefit, financially and intellectually, from those who have left. It is the degree to which these benefits counteract the unquestionable initial loss that is open to question.

Unexpected dynamics may not be at work only between the developing and developed world. Migration opportunities between Western countries may also work to the benefit of migrants' home countries.

Similar observations could be made regarding emigration flows between wealthy nations. According to the World Bank, Britain has more professional émigrés than any nation on Earth. But... [a]ccording to surveys of citations against expenditure, Britain has one of the most productive research systems in the world. How can this be?

Well, say the revisionists, science departments at British universities may actually benefit from the ambition to depart, and, to a lesser degree, from their connections with those who have done so. Perish the thought, but some of these mobile researchers may even do the best work of their lives at Salford, say, only to take their foot ever-so-slightly off the gas when they 'arrive' at Stanford.

Certainly this is an interesting piece, but I'm not entirely sanguine about the net benefits of brain drain. For one thing, I'd be interested to know how language and GDP affect the ability of migrants to stay in touch with, and eventually return home to, their countries of origin. Do Haiti and Costa Rica, or Cambodia and Singapore, experience brain drain the same way?

It would also be good to know to what degree developing nations that can train skilled migrants also serve as magnets for talent from the developed world. If I'm a restless physicist, say, eager to leave my postdoc in Austin research semiconductors and do some more meaningful work on alternative energy in the developing world, where am I likely to go? To a place so far away you have to fall off the edge of the flat world to get there? or a country I find through one of my advisor's former students, who went back a few years ago and now runs the national bureau of standards?

Technorati Tags: , ,

March 12, 2007

Squid v. whale, now tracked electronically

During the opening of one episode of Seinfeld, Jerry Seinfeld told a joke about how a nature scene-- a lion hunting a gazelle-- would be spun by film-makers to make you root for one side or the other: "Go, gazelle, run away!" "C'mon, lion, you have to eat!"

This piece brings the use of ever-smaller electronic tags to understand the habits and environments of animals (something I've found very interesting) into that joke.

In the cold, dark abyss of the Pacific lurk thousands of aptly named jumbo squid (Dosidicus gigas), aggressive carnivores up to six feet long and 100 pounds nicknamed "red devils" by fishermen.

Still, even these creatures can become prey to leviathans. The largest predators in the world, sperm whales, have a voracious appetite for squid, devouring perhaps 220 billion pounds a year or more, roughly equivalent to the entire annual harvest of all the commercial fisheries on Earth.

Yet how sperm whales hunt jumbo squid has remained a mystery.

Now, by electronically tagging both to peer at their habits up to thousands of feet underwater, scientists are discovering a deep sea version of "out of the frying pan and into the fire," with squid that flee the relative heat of surface waters potentially finding themselves in the maws of whales.

Marine scientist William Gilly at Stanford University and his colleagues were tagging jumbo squid in the Gulf of California, also called the Sea of Cortez. By good luck, they found marine biologist Randall Davis of Texas A&M University in Galveston and his collaborators tagging sperm whales nearby.

After a dinner of tacos, beer and rum on Davis and his colleagues' research vessel, the scientists decided to work together to be the first to electronically track deep sea predators and their prey simultaneously.

Lest it sound too much like a drunken lark-- the scientific equivalent of waking up after a drunken bender and finding one's self wearing a tattoo of a radio tracking collar-- it should be said that Gilly and Davis didn't throw the beer bottles overboard and immediately start shooting tags at whales; the tagging happened over the next few days. So what did they find?

During the day, electronic tags revealed tagged squid spent about three-quarters of their time at depths ranging from 600 to 1,300 feet, but at night, they spent at least half their time in shallower waters above 600 feet....

The electronics tags revealed whales spent three-quarters of their time ranging from 600 to 1,300 feet day and night, "whether squid are there or not," Davis said. "Perhaps it's the only way they can catch them, but no one has ever seen a sperm whale feeding in the wild, so nobody really knows how they capture their food."

Technorati Tags: ,

December 21, 2006

We were cyborgs then

Nicholas Carr, in an appropriate follow-up to his post about energy consumption by Second Life avatars, looks at the Sigma and Delta scans and notes, "One of the recurring themes is the blurring of the line between people and machines, between the human mind and the computer. "

Technorati Tags: , , , , ,

December 20, 2006

More Delta Scan coverage

This time by Ian Sample in the Guardian Unlimited:

Drought, pandemic and waste mountains - a future that science may help us avoid

Piles of rubbish clutter the streets of the new urban sprawls. In overloaded hospitals, patients lie in corridors, victims of a pandemic. Water prices have rocketed, and temperatures have nosedived with a premature slowing of the Gulf stream.

Welcome to dystopian Britain, a thoroughly miserable snapshot of the country's woes come the middle of the 21st century. While the bleak scenario might seem unlikely at present, Sir David King, the government's chief science adviser, is urging policy-makers not to be complacent. A bleak future will only be avoided if they understand the threats and what new technologies might come to the rescue.

Technorati Tags: , , , ,

First press on the Delta Scan

The Financial Times' Clive Cookson is first out of the gate:

Vision of life in the middle of the century

Chinese astronauts walk on the moon, the world has splintered into currency blocs after an international exchange rate shock, and even robots have the vote.

It sounds like the exaggerated vision - utopian or distopian according to taste - of a parlour futurologist. But these scenarios of what life might be like around the middle of the century have emerged from 270 rigorously researched papers commissioned by the government that together purport to be the world's most extensive look into the future.

The Horizon Scan covers a vast range of science and technology, politics, economics and society - from internet crime to robotics, banking to the computer-brain interface, stem cell research to "grey power" in an ageing population.

And it is intended to do far more than feed a human curiosity about what life may be like for our children or grandchildren. Sir David King, the government's chief scientist, argues horizon scanning will have a powerful influence on policy-making - and not only in Whitehall. "Although it was designed as a tool for government, I believe it will also have a broader use across the private sector," he adds. Horizon scanning has grown out of the 12-year-old Foresight programme in the government's Office of Science and Innovation, which produces in-depth studies of future developments in specific areas such as infectious disease diagnosis and defences against flooding.

Horizon scanning papers are individually quite brief but together they cover the entire public policy spectrum. The exercise comes in two parts. The Delta Scan, commissioned from the Institute for the Future in California, covers science and technology....

Sir David says: "The two scans look at what trends are developing, what new issues may arise, and what events may surprise us - and the possible implications for us individually and collectively. They are not 'predicting' the future, rather setting out a broad range of different possibilities and challenging assumptions."

Although the future is not predictable, "government can't just sit back and wait for it to happen", he says. "Government has to identify opportunities and risks at least five to 10 years ahead when making policy. It can then make decisions that might move us from an unfavourable to a favourable scenario."

While still in the development stage, the horizon scans have already started to influence policy-making. They have, for example, aided the Health and Safety Executive in planning for the future of workplace health and safety, and the Treasury in writing its report, "Opportunities and Challenges for the UK:analysis for the 2007 Comprehensive Spending Re-view", published last month.

Technorati Tags: , , , , ,

December 19, 2006

Delta Scan

A number of us at the Institute have spent the last 18 months working on a project for the British government on the future of science and technology-- a very broad scan of how and where science and technology might progress over the next fifty years. As an historian of science turned futurist, it was pretty much the ideal project for me; it was also one of those excellent projects that was able to draw on the combined skills of lots my colleagues, and a good part of the Institute's research network.

As part of the work, we built a database with a bunch of specific outlooks on particular areas, ranging from energy use, to scientific publishing, to the implications of pervasive computing for the practice of field science.

And as of midnight, the database is open to the general public. Visitors can read and comment on the outlooks, but it's not a wiki, so there's no facility for editing existing pieces or writing new ones.

Enjoy.

Technorati Tags: , , , ,

December 07, 2006

Webscience

via Langreiter,

a commentary at the Journal of Neuroscience speculates on the future of research journals and peer-review:

Research studies appear on databases, not in journals
First, I don't think that it makes any sense to continue with paper copies of research articles. Instead of the "quasi-legal" document that is the current scientific article, we should be moving to full data being available on the web together with the software that might have been used to manipulate the data, as well as multimedia presentations to back up the data. Research papers are primarily of interest to other researchers in the same area, and they usually don't need the introduction and certainly not the discussion, which mostly degenerates to hype anyway
...
If an absence of peer review (or post-publication review, as I call it) is a step too far, then we should have an author (or rather funder) pays model. These fees could support a peer review mechanism, which should be open in that both authors and readers would know who was reviewing studies. It's ethically unacceptable that such important judgements should be made an unidentified judge. Like it or not, we live in a world where what is not transparent is deemed to be biased, corrupt, or incompetent until proved otherwise. Plus I believe that peer review should be a scientific discourse rather than an arbitrary judgment. This is far from radical: it's simply science returning to its roots when science was presented and discussed at meetings rather than published in journals.

Perhaps we will invent new forms of peer review by learning from innovations like Wikipedia. It is in some ways a form of peer review, only reviewers make changes directly rather than simply commenting.
...
Another worry from the conservative about such a system is to wonder how credit would be allocated. At present credit comes from publishing in prestigious journals. Often the impact factor of the journal (a dubious and manipulated statistic) is allocated to the paper, which is wholly unscientific because there is little correlation between the citations to studies and the impact factor of the journals in which they are published, because the impact factor of a journal is driven by a small number of highly cited studies (Seglen, 1997). In the new world I'm imagining, credit would come from the buzz from researchers and hits on the study. These hits can be disclosed in real time, unlike citations, which come years after studies are published.

The part about multimedia presentations makes a lot of sense as we expect simulations to play an increasingly important role.  I'm eager to see researchers experiment with new ways of publishing and finding each others work. I met someone from Georgia Tech who had setup some kind of display to notify researchers when they were working on portions of the genome that overlap with someone in the building.  It's impossible to know what will work or not beforehand - what would encourage research and what would bring the whole system to a screeching halt. For more webscience speculation, look at these Machine Learning (Theory) posts:

9/18/2006 - What is missing for online collaborative research?
12/1/2005 - The Webscience Future

November 20, 2006

New Scientists' "Brilliant Minds Forecast the Next 50 Years"

I suspect I'll have a lot more to say about this after I've read through and digested the whole thing, but I wanted to point out New Scientists' special feature "Instant Expert: Brilliant Minds Forecast the Next 50 Years."

What will be the biggest breakthrough of the next 50 years? As part of our 50th anniversary celebrations we asked over 70 of the world's most brilliant scientists for their ideas.

In coming decades will we: discover that we are not alone in the universe? Unravel the physiological basis for consciousness? Routinely have false memories implanted in our minds? Begin to evolve in new directions? And will physicists finally hit upon a universal theory of everything? In fact, if the revelations of the last 50 years are anything to go on - the internet and the human genome for example - we probably have not even thought up the exciting advances that lay ahead of us.

I don't want to be too hard on a feature like this, as I don't think it's intended to be read as a serious exercise in prognostication; it's a highbrow, PBS-like version of a futures petting zoo, not a report that's going to affect science policy. Still, having just returned from a conference where I spent two days arguing about the meaning of the words "forecast" and "technology," and the ways out assumptions about both may be leading us seriously astray, my reflex is to argue that no set of forecasts this short, produced by people working by themselves, can illuminate much of anything. But more on the pros and cons of such projects later.

Technorati Tags: ,

October 19, 2006

Animal attacks

File this under the wildest of wildcards, but rae the number of attacks by animals formerly thought to be relatively harmless or difficult to provoke on the rise?

My ever-sharp colleague pointed me to an article about a stingray attack in Florida, in which the stingray leapt into a boat and stung an 81 year-old man. Today, Reuters reports that five people in a village in Bangladesh were killed by rampaging elephants. The New York Times had a remarkable article speculating about "an elephant crackup" earlier this month, which some scientists argue is a consequence of the breakdown of elephants' biological and social environments:

All across Africa, India and parts of Southeast Asia, from within and around whatever patches and corridors of their natural habitat remain, elephants have been striking out, destroying villages and crops, attacking and killing human beings. In fact, these attacks have become so commonplace that a new statistical category, known as Human-Elephant Conflict, or H.E.C., was created by elephant researchers in the mid-1990’s to monitor the problem....

it is not only the increasing number of these incidents that is causing alarm but also the singular perversity — for want of a less anthropocentric term — of recent elephant aggression. Since the early 1990’s, for example, young male elephants in Pilanesberg National Park and the Hluhluwe-Umfolozi Game Reserve in South Africa have been raping and killing rhinoceroses; this abnormal behavior, according to a 2001 study in the journal Pachyderm, has been reported in ‘‘a number of reserves’’ in the region. In July of last year, officials in Pilanesberg shot three young male elephants who were responsible for the killings of 63 rhinos, as well as attacks on people in safari vehicles. In Addo Elephant National Park, also in South Africa, up to 90 percent of male elephant deaths are now attributable to other male elephants, compared with a rate of 6 percent in more stable elephant communities....

For a number of biologists and ethologists who have spent their careers studying elephant behavior, the attacks have become so abnormal in both number and kind that they can no longer be attributed entirely to the customary factors. Typically, elephant researchers have cited, as a cause of aggression, the high levels of testosterone in newly matured male elephants or the competition for land and resources between elephants and humans. But in ‘‘Elephant Breakdown,’’ a 2005 essay in the journal Nature, [Oregon State University professor Gay] Bradshaw and several colleagues argued that today’s elephant populations are suffering from a form of chronic stress, a kind of species-wide trauma. Decades of poaching and culling and habitat loss, they claim, have so disrupted the intricate web of familial and societal relations by which young elephants have traditionally been raised in the wild, and by which established elephant herds are governed, that what we are now witnessing is nothing less than a precipitous collapse of elephant culture.

It has long been apparent that every large, land-based animal on this planet is ultimately fighting a losing battle with humankind. And yet entirely befitting of an animal with such a highly developed sensibility, a deep-rooted sense of family and, yes, such a good long-term memory, the elephant is not going out quietly. It is not leaving without making some kind of statement, one to which scientists from a variety of disciplines, including human psychology, are now beginning to pay close attention.

Elsewhere, Bradshaw elaborates her argument about elephant aggression, and also suggests that this new interpretation of its causes is part of a bigger shift in animal psychology.

Some biologists think that increased elephant aggression might comprise, in part, revenge against humans for accidental or deliberate elephant deaths. Could it be that elephants, like humans, also suffer psychological trauma as a result of violence?
Until a few years ago, making such inference and diagnosing elephants with PTSD would have been dismissed as anthropomorphism. But no longer. Elephant psychopathology, chimpanzee infanticide and other un-animal-like behaviors are part of a growing body of research that suggests science is building toward a radical paradigm shift. Streams of new data and theories, critically from neuroscience, are converging into a new, trans-species model of the psyche. Humans are being reinstated back into the species continuum that Darwin articulated, a continuum that includes laughing rats, octopuses with personalities, sheep who read emotions from the faces of their family members and tool-wielding crows.

We now understand that all vertebrates, and it is argued even some invertebrates, share many biological structures and processes that underlie attributes once considered uniquely human: empathy, personality, culture, emotion, language, intention, tool-use and violence. Furthermore, we are able to see beyond species differences in ways we have never been able to before. Neuroimaging advances such as PET and fMRI can help map more elusive subjective qualities—such as emotion, states of consciousness and sense of self—to specific regions of the brain. In conjunction with a rich legacy of observational data and theories on animal behavior and human psychology, neuroscience is bridging long-standing conceptual and perceptual gaps.

Whether or not this paradigm shift conforms precisely to science philosopher Thomas Kuhn's definition, its potential effects on science and society are revolutionary. The idea that humans share a psyche with other animals is enormously challenging. First, it alters the basic model around which biomedical and other disciplines have organized theory and terminology. Concepts like sense of self, empathy and intention have largely been considered exclusive to humans, and have therefore defined what animals are not. Such perceived dissimilarities have shaped theory, practice, law and custom for centuries. The human-animal gap influences how we live, how we formulate scientific questions, how we practice science and even what we eat. Today, in contrast, models of species' similarity are replacing models of difference, and the lines between species have become increasingly blurred—blurred to the extent that many insist on limits to stem cell-chimera research to avoid mixing the neuronal and psychological capacities of humans and other species.

Are there other interesting statistics suggesting an increase in the number of attacks by animals that previously were not especially aggressive (as in the case of the stingray), or a change in the kind of aggression exhibited by animals (as in the case of the elephant)?

Technorati Tags: , ,

August 22, 2006

The city as laboratory

Another data-point in my and Anthony Townsend's ongoing study of how R&D is turning into an urban enterprise-- and often turning cities into hothouses and laboratories:

Google's Latest Laboratory: The City of Mountain View

Google, known for its innovative hiring practices and research-based worked environment, unveiled its most interesting laboratory to date: a wireless network in Mountain View, CA, that covers "11.5 square miles and has 380 access points in the city with a population of about 72,000, 35 miles south of San Francisco," according to this Bloomberg article.

The company insists it has no desire to roll out a nationwide wireless service; instead, it plans to use its hometown as a test bed for consumer interest in wireless products.

Bloomberg adds,

Google engineers attached antennas to lamp posts in Mountain View, which approved the project in November.

Consumers need to sign up for a Google account to use the network that offers connections of about 1 megabit per second, more than 15 times the speed of most dial-up services.

Technorati Tags: , , ,

August 21, 2006

UK environmental issues

The Guardian reports that scientists at the University of East Anglia have

drawn up a list of the 100 biggest questions to face the UK environment, including controversies such as whether farmers should be allowed to kill badgers to protect their cattle from disease and how many seabirds are slaughtered by wind farms.

The list, a roll call of Britain's most pressing ecological problems, is based on the suggestions of more than 650 experts in universities, conservation groups and government institutes. It is intended to inform policy-makers and steer research over the next decade to answer key questions in areas such as farming, climate change, pollution and urban development.

One term you hear if you spend any time with people in the British government is the phrase "evidence-based policy," which is exactly what it sounds like: policy based on evidence. However, proponents of this don't argue that policy has heretofore been made without evidence, but that it can be improved with deeper and more forward-looking information.

The list is pretty specific.

The list includes current controversies in environmental science, and introduces some new ones. It asks whether there is evidence that organic farms are better for the environment, as supporters claim. It revisits the problem of whether badgers spread bovine TB to cattle. And it raises the thorny issue of the damage that domestic cats might be doing to bird and animal populations, a long-standing question that ecologists rarely voice in case they anger the UK's millions of pet owners....
Several of the questions cover the indirect environmental effects of government decisions in related fields, such as energy. Groups including the RSPB have objected to large wind farms, such as the one planned for the Isle of Lewis, because they argue not enough is known about their impact on wildlife. Scientists in Norway recently reported that coastal wind turbines there were responsible for a spate of sea eagle deaths, and are now investigating how to keep the birds away from the blades.
The experts who compiled the list also want to know more about the environmental impact of other forms of renewable energy, including wave power.
Some of the questions are "effectively unanswerable", the report admits, while others are "essentially too vague". For that, Dr Sutherland says we should blame the policy-makers, who had the final say and deliberately broadened the specific problems posed by the scientists.

Interestingly, the process they used to come up with their top 100 sounds rather like one of our expert workshops.

The original survey gathered 1,003 suggested questions - including "if the government gave more money to ecologists, would the country be better off?". These were whittled down during a two-day exercise at the University of East Anglia in February 2005.

The suggestions were printed and pasted across the walls and the policy experts invited to mark their favourites with sticky labels. (The scientists were there to advise only, and, in the words of Dr Sutherland, "to make the tea".)

Paul Armsworth, a lecturer in the animal and plant science department at the University of Sheffield, said the exercise was among the strangest experiences of his career. "For a nerdy scientist who usually sits at my desk this was a very physical experience. It was very much a one-off - a unique and ground-breaking effort."

Many of our expert workshops begin with a big brainstorming exercise. From there, we narrow down and order the ideas, by doing voting exercises that rank them, sorting them into categories, or building a map around them.

Technorati Tags: , , ,

August 20, 2006

Shakemovie, the future of science

I'm only half joking with the title of the post. When I was at Britannica, I spent forever trying to commission a set of 3D visualizations of earthquakes; for various reasons, the project never went anywhere. Tonight I discovered that a Caltech site publishes visualizations of earthquakes in near real time.

Caltech's Near Real Time Simulation of Southern California Seismic Events Portal. This portal has been designed to present the public with near real time visualizations of recent significant seismic events in the Southern California Region. These movies are the results of simulations carried out on a large computer cluster. Earthquake movies will be available for download approximately 45 mins after the occurrence of a quake of magnitude 3.5 or greater.

As they explain, the data comes from the Southern California Earthquake Data Center, which maintains several hundred earthquake monitoring stations (here's a map of the array); the data is then run through a 3D wave simulation, and a movie is generated.

It's an example of what interesting things you can do with real-time environmental data, ample processing power, and an Internet connection. It's easy to imagine amateur scientists creating things like this,