IFTF's Future Now

The X2 project

For the last 6 months or so, I've been working on a big new project at the Institute. I haven't written that much about it, as we've been... quiet. Now, though, we're starting to take the project public.

The project is called X2, and its aim is to forecast the future of science, technology and innovation. The name may sound like science fiction, but it's actually an historical allusion. In my previous life as an academic historian, I studied the X Club, a group of Victorian scientists who were very interested in the future of British science. The Club formed when its members were still young, ambitious outsiders, fighting to establish their reputations in a world in which social connections and privilege mattered more than scientific achievement; by the time they retired, its nine members were among the leaders of British science.

Not only did they do well for themselves; they changed how we think about science. The X Club helped establish the idea that science was an essential ingredient for modern industry, a resource for national security, and a tool to improve public health and well-being. Now, the idea that science is important in modern society seems so self-evident, it's hard to imagine a time when people didn't believe it; but that was exactly the world the X Club confronted in its early years. As much as any single group of people, they created our modern view of science.

Finally, the group was interested in just about everything, and was incredibly hard-working. They lectured on a wide variety of subjects, published popular works, did ground-breaking research, and advised government-- and like many of their Victorian brethren, still took month-long vacations to the Lake Country or Europe.

As of today, the main site for the project is public. There's a FAQ that explains what we're doing in greater detail, but you should just go wander about and see for yourself what's going on.

Technorati Tags: scienceX2, science

Post-scientific society

[Cross-posted from the new Future Now.]

I've been in Malaysia and Singapore this week, conducting workshops on the future of science and innovation. It's been a very interesting week, talking to scientists in Penang and Kuala Lumpur about the future of science, and what role they see Malaysia playing in that future. The people I've been talking to are pretty convinced that Malaysia, which has a respectable but not world-class scientific community, can evolve into a global player in science in the next couple decades. They don't want to emulate American and European institutions: you won't see multi-billion dollar particle accelerators here any time soon. But they're pretty aware that cloud computing, cheap genomics, and other inexpensive research tools will lower the economic bars to develop world-class competence in some important fields.

So I was especially struck by Gregg Zachary's latest column in the New York Times, which asks, "might cheap science from low-wage countries help keep American innovators humming?" At least a few policy analysts and scholars studying global trends in science think that the United States can profit from the growth of scientific excellence in the developing world.

Americans have long profited from low-cost manufactured goods, especially from Asia. The cost of those material “inputs” is now rising. But because of growing numbers of scientists in China, India and other lower-wage countries, “the cost of producing a new scientific discovery is dropping around the world,” says Christopher T. Hill, a professor of public policy and technology at George Mason University.

American innovators — with their world-class strengths in product design, marketing and finance — may have a historic opportunity to convert the scientific know-how from abroad into market gains and profits. Mr. Hill views the transition to “the postscientific society” as an unrecognized bonus for American creators of new products and services.

Mr. Hill’s insight, which he first described in a National Academy of Sciences journal article last fall, runs counter to the notion that the United States fails to educate enough of its own scientists and that “shortages” of them hamper American competitiveness.

The opposite may actually be true. By tapping relatively low-cost scientists around the world, American innovators may actually strengthen their market positions....

Precisely because the gap between basic science and commercial innovations is large, Mr. Hill’s postscientific society makes sense to innovators on the front lines. One implication for the future is that the United States “won’t have to import so many scientists,” says Stephen D. Nelson, associate director of policy programs at the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

The association, which for decades has generally favored policies to expand the ranks of American scientists, is devoting a portion of its annual policy seminar next month to talk about the “postscience” situation.

Industry, meanwhile, is adapting to a world where scientific goods can come from anywhere — and fewer scientists work on abstract problems unrelated to the market. “It is no accident that many corporate labs have fallen apart,” Sean M. Maloney, executive vice president of Intel, says. “They were science farms looking for problems.”

What is this post-scientific society that Hill writes about? As he explains it,

A post-scientific society will have several key characteristics, the most important of which is that innovation leading to wealth generation and productivity growth will be based principally not on world leadership in fundamental research in the natural sciences and engineering, but on world-leading mastery of the creative powers of, and the basic sciences of, individual human beings, their societies, and their cultures.

Just as the post-industrial society continues to require the products of agriculture and manufacturing for its effective functioning, so too will the post-scientific society continue to require the results of advanced scientific and engineering research. Nevertheless, the leading edge of innovation in the post-scientific society, whether for business, industrial, consumer, or public purposes, will move from the workshop, the laboratory, and the office to the studio, the think tank, the atelier, and cyberspace.

There are growing indications that new innovation-based wealth in the United States is arising from something other than organized research in science and engineering. Companies based on radical innovations, exemplified by network firms such as Google, YouTube, eBay, and Yahoo, create billions in new wealth with only modest contributions from industrial research as it has traditionally been understood. Huge and successful firms like Wal-Mart, FedEx, Dell, Amazon.com, and Cisco have grown to be among the largest in the world, not as much by mastering the intricacies of physics, chemistry, or molecular biology as by structuring human work and organizational practices in radical new ways. The new ideas and concepts that support these post-scientific society companies are every bit as subtle and important as the fundamental natural science and engineering research findings that supported the growth of firms such as General Motors, DuPont, and General Electric in the past half century. But innovation in these two generations of firms is fundamentally different.

The piece is well worth reading, as it has a number of provocative implications for science policy, innovation policy, and education. Essentially, Hill is arguing that a decline in America's monopoly on science-- even if that does happen-- is not to be lamented any more than the shrinking of the agricultural workforce: it doesn't reflect a weakness, but a more fundamental shift to a different kind of economy, in which the sources of value aren't facts, but what you do with them.

Technorati Tags: policy, science

New study on Chinese-EU energy cooperation

SciDevNet reports on a new study proposing cooperation between the EU and China on alternative energy research and development:

China and the European Union (EU) can significantly advance low-carbon technologies if they cooperate closely on technological development and market access, according to a new report.

'Interdependencies on Energy and Climate Security for China and Europe', outlines common challenges faced by the China and the EU in dealing with the impact of climate change on energy security — despite differences in their economic development.

The report was presented in Beijing last month (28 February). Contributors include UK think tank Chatham House and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).

In order to meet its fast-growing energy demands, China will need to add power generation capacity of 1260 gigawatts by 2030. And despite stable economic development, the countries of the EU will need to generate 862 gigawatts of additional energy by 2030 to replace outdated generation facilities.

If conventional technologies are used, both China and the EU will be locked in a high-carbon development model, the report warns.

But if they work together, the EU and China — which together account for 30 per cent of the world's energy consumption — could create unprecedented opportunities for global transition to low-carbon energy generation, says the report.

China's huge energy demands, low-cost manufacturing, and cheap local technological talent offer a shortcut for the production of clean energy technologies such as wind, solar and clean coal.

China has already produced 80 per cent of the world's energy-saving lamps — many of which are based on technology created in the EU.

The report recommends that EU research bodies establish research and development centres in China and increase the involvement of Chinese expertise in the development of clean energy technology.

It also suggests that the EU builds 'low-carbon economic zones' in China and establishes a joint technology platform to improve energy efficiency in the building sector.

Technorati Tags: China, cooperation, energy, Europe

Use a sensor, go to jail

The Village Voice (via Jason) reports on a proposal in New York City to essentially have all environmental monitoring devices registered by the police.

Richard Falkenrath, the NYPD's deputy commissioner for counterterrorism... and Mayor Michael Bloomberg have asked the City Council to pass a law requiring anyone who wants to own... that detect traces of biological, chemical, and radiological weapons... to get a permit from the police first. And it's not just devices to detect weaponized anthrax that they want the power to control, but those that detect everything from industrial pollutants to asbestos in shoddy apartments. Want to test for pollution in low-income neighborhoods with high rates of childhood asthma? Gotta ask the cops for permission. Why? So you "will not lead to excessive false alarms and unwarranted anxiety," the first draft of the law states.

Last week, Falkenrath made his case for the new law before the City Council's Public Safety Committee, where Councilman Peter Vallone introduced the bill and chaired the hearing. Dozens of university researchers, public-health professionals, and environmental lawyers sat in the crowd, horrified by the prospect that if this law passes, their work detecting and warning the public about airborne pollutants will become next to impossible.

Given how important environmental sensors are to all kinds of scientific research, not to mention environmental activism (e.g., monitoring of pollutants in low-income neighborhoods), this seems like a pretty extreme move.

But Falkenrath pressed on, saying that unless the police can determine who gets to look for nasty stuff floating in the air, the city would be paralyzed by fear.

"There are currently no guidelines regulating the private acquisition of biological, chemical, and radiological detectors," warned Falkenrath, adding that this law was suggested by officials within the Department of Homeland Security. "There are no consistent standards for the type of detectors used, no requirement that they be reported to the police department—or anyone else, for that matter—and no mechanism for coordinating these devices. . . . Our mutual goal is to prevent false alarms . . . by making sure we know where these detectors are located, and that they conform to standards of quality and reliability."

Futurists regularly talk about the potential for cheap environmental sensors to serve as tools for sustainable development, more efficient energy use, etc.; I'm not sure how many of us (or how many computer scientists, ecologists, and others) ever thought that it would make sense to have the police "know where these detectors are located, and that they conform to standards of quality and reliability," any more than they would have a compelling interest in making sure all clocks and watches were accurately set. It'll be interesting to see how this unfolds.

Technorati Tags: environment, security, ubicomp

Miguel Nicolelis and the future of Brazilian science

Despite the fact that I'm quoted in it, Scientific American's recent story on Miguel Nicolelis' plans to build a network of institutions to improve Brazilian science is worth reading.

Convinced that science is a key capable of unlocking human potential well beyond the rigid hierarchies of academia—and outside the traditional scientific bastions of North America and Europe—his other big project has been nothing less than a quest to transform the way research is carried out in his native Brazil. In the process, he believes, science can also leverage economic and social transformation throughout the country. The heart of Nicolelis’s vision is a string of “science cities” built across Brazil’s poorest regions, each centered on a world-class research institute specializing in a different area of science or technology. A web of education and social programs would intimately involve surrounding communities with each institution while improving local infrastructure and quality of life. And the presence of these knowledge-based oases would spark a Silicon Valley–style clustering of commercial scientific enterprise around them, jump-starting regional development.

One of the most notable aspects of his vision is that it reaches down into primary education-- something that's very unusual for science city projects that tend to focus on attracting major multinationals or luring in world-class researchers.

In Nicolelis’s view, reaching children well before college age is crucial. He believes that science education strengthens critical thinking skills in general, and he plans to use improvements in the children’s regular school performance as a benchmark for the effectiveness of the supplementary classes at institute science schools. If some of the kids become interested in pursuing science and technology careers, they will find plenty of opportunities in the knowledge economy. “Ninety-nine percent of scientific work doesn’t require a Ph.D.,” he insists.

Technorati Tags: brain, brain circulation, brazil, pro-am

Enhancement isn't just for athletes any more

For years there's been anecdotal evidence, and a couple surveys, suggesting growing use of drugs like Ritalin and Provigil by undergraduates looking to get an edge over the competition. Now, some faculty are starting to claim that professors have started doing it, too:

While caffeine reigns as the supreme drug of the professoriate, some university faculty members have started popping "smart" pills to enhance their mental energy and ability to work long hours, according to two University of Cambridge scientists.

In a commentary published in the journal Nature last month, Barbara Sahakian and Sharon Morein-Zamir revealed the results of their informal survey of a handful of colleagues who study drugs that help people perform better mentally....

But brain boosting raises hackles in some parts of academe. "It smells to me a lot like taking steroids for physical prowess," said Barbara Prudhomme White, an associate professor of occupational therapy at the University of New Hampshire, who has studied the abuse of Ritalin by college students. After recent revelations about the use of performance-enhancing drugs in professional baseball, she sees parallels between athletes and assistant professors. "You're expected to publish and teach, and the stakes are high. So young professors have to work their tails off to get that golden nugget of tenure."

The poll was not meant to be a comprehensive study, said Ms. Morein-Zamir, a research associate at Cambridge. Rather, the essay, "Professor's Little Helper," was intended to provoke a public discussion of whether society in general, and universities in particular, should regulate the use of available compounds and medications that might be developed in the future. "If a drug helps you be more alert but also make better decisions, how does society feel about that?" she asked.

The essay, published in Nature, is a rewardingly geeky piece that includes a long discussion of how these drugs work, and what dangers exist in their use.

Technorati Tags: brain, drugs, university

Finally, an inexpensive solution to the Chinese Hamster Ovary cell transportation problem

Wired reports on a impressive piece of improvisational science: while waiting for their lab's equipment to arrive, UC Merced engineering professor Michelle Khine, an expert in microfluidic systems, and her research group "designed complicated patterns in Auto CAD, printed them onto Shrinky Dinks, and then heated the plastic toys in an inexpensive oven."

As the sheets became smaller, the lines of print would bulge out. Taller and more pronounced, the miniaturized pattern served as a perfect mould for forming rounded, narrow channels in PDMS -- a clear, synthetic rubber.

In addition to making some simpler devices, Khine and her team emblazoned a Christmas tree design into a piece of PDMS and showed how it can blend different types of food coloring to make a rainbow pattern. Since microfluidic devices are sometimes used for biological research, the young professor also showed that Chinese Hamster Ovary cells can flow through through the narrow channels.

An article published in the Royal College of Chemistry's journal Lab on a Chip describes the lab's

rapid and non-photolithographic approach to microfluidic pattern generation by leveraging the inherent shrinkage properties of biaxially oriented polystyrene thermoplastic sheets [those would be the Shrinky Dinks-- ed.]. This novel approach yields channels deep enough for mammalian cell assays, with demonstrated heights up to 80 µm. Moreover, we can consistently and easily achieve rounded channels, multi-height channels, and channels as thin as 65 µm in width. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of this simple microfabrication approach by fabricating a functional gradient generator. The whole process—from device design conception to working device—can be completed within minutes....

Unlike the expensive setup and laborious processing required to make the silicon wafers, this approach only requires a laser-jet printer and a toaster oven, and can be completed within minutes. Moreover, we can achieve multi-height designs within the device, which typically requires a laborious and iterative process using standard lithographic approaches.

A few weeks ago I pointed out Attila Csordás' article on DIY biology. This is another data-point suggesting that the DIY biology world isn't close-- if you're ingenious and have the toys at hand, it's here.

Technorati Tags: biology, biotech, innovation, DIY, users

American students rank 17th in OECD scientific literacy survey

The Chronicle of Higher Education (sub req) reports on "an international assessment of scientific literacy among 15-year-olds" conducted by the Program for International Student Assessment, sponsored by the OECD. The assessment

shows American students to be scoring slightly below the average for the group of 30 nations that sponsored the test, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.... The United States posted an average score of 489 on a 1,000-point scale (with the mean set at 500), placing it just above the Slovak Republic and Spain, and just below France and Iceland [and 17th overall]. The top scorer was Finland, with an average score of 563, followed by Canada, Japan, and New Zealand.

A close examination of the results for the United States shows that racial and ethnic gaps in educational performance contributed to the nation's mediocre showing. The average score for non-Hispanic white 15-year-olds in the United States was well above the international average, at 523, but black U.S. students posted a mean score of 409—below the averages for every other OECD nation and all but eight of the 27 non-OECD nations and jurisdictions. The average score for Asian-American students was a 499, while the average for Hispanic-American students was 439.

The entire report is available at the National Center for Educational Statistics.

Small quake

We had a small earthquake here in the Bay Area this evening. On the Peninsula, where the Institute is located, it probably lasted about 30 seconds or so, and buildings shook a little; but nothing fell over.

Seconds after it was over, I started getting IMs from colleagues, asking if I'd felt the quake too, and how long it had lasted. It was my kids' first earthquake, and so naturally I wanted to explain what an earthquake is (though without the part about the near inevitability of the Bay Area eventually being hit hard by a Hayward Fault quake); so naturally, I fired up Google Earth, found the USGS report (5.6, not so small), and showed them where the epicenter was:

The red star is the epicenter, and the yellow pin is where we live.

A little later, I was curious to see what fault it was on, so I went back online, grabbed a KMZ file from the USGS showing the locations of Bay Area fault lines, and added it into the mix:

Now I could see it was on the Calaveras Fault, not the Hayward, as I'd assumed.

We at IFTF write a lot about how visualization tools create new interpretive possibilities, and how the existence of substantial, free data sets creates new opportunities for amateur science. Turns out we're right.

Technorati Tags: earthquake, Google Earth, menlo park, visualization

And with this post, I'm going to sleep

I've recently been dipping into the literature on the neuroscience of memory and futures thinking, trying to figure out if there are insights from this work that can help futurists do their work better. After a few months of reading about inter-temporal decision-making, the tangled relationship between memory and imagination, and why we make bad decisions, my eye finds brain-related news pretty quickly. Like this piece on sleep research from the New York Times:

Scientists have been trying to determine why people need sleep for more than 100 years. They have not learned much more than what every new parent quickly finds out: sleep loss makes you more reckless, more emotionally fragile, less able to concentrate and almost certainly more vulnerable to infection. They know, too, that some people get by on as few as three hours a night, even less, and that there are hearty souls who have stayed up for more than week without significant health problems.

Now, a small group of neuroscientists is arguing that at least one vital function of sleep is bound up with learning and memory. A cascade of new findings, in animals and humans, suggest that sleep plays a critical role in flagging and storing important memories, both intellectual and physical, and perhaps in seeing subtle connections that were invisible during waking — a new way to solve a math or Easter egg problem, even an unseen pattern causing stress in a marriage.

The theory is controversial, and some scientists insist that it’s still far from clear whether the sleeping brain can do anything with memories that the waking brain doesn’t also do, in moments of quiet contemplation.

Yet the new research underscores a vast transformation in the way scientists have come to understand the sleeping brain. Once seen as a blank screen, a metaphor for death, it has emerged as an active, purposeful machine, a secretive intelligence that comes out at night to play — and to work — during periods of dreaming and during the netherworld chasms

Technorati Tags: memory, neuroscience, psychology, science