IFTF's Future Now

The complex relationships between media

From Marc Andreesen's blog, quoting the New Yorker, July 14, 1951:

The most encouraging word we have so far had about television came from a grade-school principal we encountered the other afternoon.

"They say it's going to bring back vaudeville," he said, "but I think it's going to bring back the book."

Before television, he told us, his pupils never read; that is, they knew how to read and could do it in school, but their reading ended there. Their entertainment was predominantly pictorial and auditory -- movies, comic books, radio.

Now, the principal said, news summaries are typed out and displayed on the television screen to the accompaniment of soothing music, the opening pages of dramatized novels are shown, words are written on blackboards in quiz and panel programs, commercials are spelled out in letters made up of dancing cigarettes, and even the packages of cleansers and breakfast foods and the announcers exhibit for identification bear printed messages.

It's only a question of time, our principal felt, before the new literacy of the television audience reaches the point where whole books can be held up to the screen and all their pages slowly turned.

Anyone who watches an hour of cable news is probably exposed to more words and numbers-- in the form of headlines, crawls, stock tickers, etc.-- than their grandparents saw in a day. Of course, that's a total guess. But as I mentioned a little while ago, my son is keen to start reading more on his own so he can play more advanced video games. The bottom line is, the relationship between new media and old skills is always more complicated than we think.

Technorati Tags: technology, television, reading

"Experience is the new reality"

Via Epicenter, this new forward-looking video, "Prometeus: The Media Revolution."

The Wired blog describes it as "a faux-documentary short released by Italian consultancy Casaleggio Associates that takes us into the year 2027, a world where Google has acquired Microsoft, Amazon has consumed Yahoo and Laurence Lessig has become the U.S. Secretary of Justice."

Technorati Tags: future, media, video

The Blackberry UI defense

I noticed in this morning's Talking Points Memo a twist in the "he said, she said" swirling around the U.S. Attorney firings / resignations/ replacements. One of the elements of the controversy involves the use of a little-known provision allowing the Attorney General to appoint interim attorneys without Congressional approval, and whether the firings were intended as a test of that new power.

Alberto Gonzales' chief of staff Kyle Sampson was advising the use of the AG's newfound power to appoint replacements indefinitely -- without the trouble of Senate confirmation.... The emails show that Sampson wasn't shy about the scheme. He discussed it freely with members of the White House counsel office, including Harriet Miers. In October of 2006, he forwarded one of these discussions to Michael Elston, [Deputy Attorney General Paul] McNulty's chief of staff.

McNulty has maintained that he knew nothing about this, and that the AG's office always planned to send the nominations up to Capitol Hill.

But if his chief of staff was sent an e-mail about it, how could McNulty not have heard? The culprit is technology:

“Either Elston did not scroll down on his BlackBerry to read the last section [of the e-mail] or it made no impression on him, because he knew that it did not reflect the department’s plan for replacing the U.S. attorneys who would be asked to resign,” says spokesman Brian Roehrkasse.

This instantly reminded me of a problem John Hagel wrote about, "Berrybite" blowback:

Both JSB and I have had experiences where documents we sent were read by people on a Blackberry or Treo. They weren’t long documents – basically the equivalent of two or three pages of text. The recipients were initially highly critical of the material. But, when we pressed them to read the documents again, they came back after reading them more carefully on a PC or in print form and apologized for their initial reactions. They said the material was excellent and they didn’t really understand why they had such a negative initial reaction.

Well, we think we know why initial reactions were so negative. The Blackberry or Treo is not conducive to a careful read – it encourages skimming. It also encourages people to find a quick way to capture what is in the document and then move on to the next message. As a result, people tend to try to fit these documents into familiar categories based on some key words rather than thinking deeply about the topic and absorbing new perspectives. It also doesn’t help that documents on these devices are typically accessed in environments with lots of distractions – meeting rooms, airports, automobiles, etc. – making it difficult to concentrate on the message at hand.

Bottom line, if you send a document to someone and they don’t like it, ask them how they accessed and read it. If it was on a Blackberry or Treo, ask them to read it again in a different format. You (and they) might be surprised at how their reactions change.

Or as one commenter put it, "If the text don't fit, you must acquit."

One has to wonder how many government or corporate decisions are made via Blackberry or Treo without having read all through the relevant documents.... John or JSB, if you're someday called as defense witnesses, I deeply apologize!

Technorati Tags: interface, mobility, politics

My Rolling Stone appearance feels less cutting-edge now

Being quoted in Rolling Stone was cool, but futurists Joseph Coates and Graham Molitor were guests of Ali G.

[via Sadly, No!]

Technorati Tags: future, humor

Beijing Hipsters Hit Manhattan

I had the chance last night to catch two new alternative rock bands from Beijing that are touring the US, Rebuilding the Rights of Statues and Lonely China Day, at Cake Shop on New York's Lower East Side.

The music was definitely good, but it was a struggle to hear any unique Chinese influence or sound. Most of it seemed derived from various US and UK alternative music sounds - I definitely heard some Siouxsie and the Banshees in the Rebuilding's style. So while I was hoping for more, and I wouldn't say the Beijing sound is going to sweep the world, I think it's pretty cool that Beijing hipsters are popping up in Manhattan. Who would have thought that 10 years ago or 20 years ago? Who'll be here 10 or 20 years from now? Lahore hipsters? Lagos hipsters?

Cake Shop's Flickr feed (a couple days behind, look for the March 8 shots in about a week)

Two methods of visualizing reactions to the Presidential address

Slate/HCD Research and Institute for the Future of the Book are both exploring new methods for presenting reactions to the President's Wednesday night speech.

Slate partnered with HCD Research to survey Republicans, Democrats and Independents on the Internet for their evaluation of Bush's believability throughout his speech.  The graph is then matched to selected video clips and played back in real time.

The Institute for the Future of the Book posted the speech transcript using software they've developed that allows people to attach comments to specific paragraphs.  The commenting group is seeded with writers from Lapham’s Quarterly and visitors can join the conversation by submitting a short application.

Flirting with Bluetooth?

The New Republic has a highly anecdotal article about Bluetooth-enabled cell phones that, if true, reinforces William Gibson's observation that the street finds its own use for things.

[T]he mating call of choice in Muslim countries today is the wireless digital telegram--a discrete medium for surreptitious flirting and hooking up that circumvents authoritarian strategies for repressing casual sex. In patriarchal societies like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait or hard-line regimes like Iran, methods for preventing unchaperoned dating range from legal restrictions on non-familial mixing between the sexes to tough social taboos, reinforced at home and at school, that render frontal flirtation all but impossible.

Mobile phones, now widely in use by teens and twentysomethings throughout the Middle East, enable swinging singles to tiptoe around these roadblocks: A group of boys can appear to be hanging with each other when they're really chatting it up with girls across the hall. And, thanks to Bluetooth technology, which renders phone numbers unnecessary by enabling short-range, anonymous signaling, it's even possible for a boy and a girl to meet and mingle without any prior arrangement. Small wonder some Muslim clerics in the Gulf and elsewhere have called for a Bluetooth ban.

Technorati Tags: mobility, wireless

Best. Media. Mention. Ever.

Future Now made it onto YouTube: check out feast file 9.9.06.

There's something truly hypnotizing about the synthetic voice, the techno beat, the anxiety about information overload.

Okay, the video has got far fewer hits than the automatic cat feeder or Bus Uncle, but still.

Technorati Tags: AI, future

Larry Smarr on the past and future of telepresence

At tonight's Technology Horizons conference, Larry Smarr gave a terrific talk on the history and future of telepresence-- i.e., systems that "eliminate distance between individuals who want to interact with other people and with other computers." I'm a bit fuzzy-- it was a long day, and tomorrow will be even longer-- but a few notes.

Telepresence has a long history in the laboratory and story. The first AT&T PicturePhone appeared forty years ago. Even as that system bombed, science fiction explored what a world in which telepresence really worked would be like: for example, the bridge of the USS Enterprise (with its giant screen that can alternately be a portal to the outside, a communications screen, or a data display) still resonates with some researchers.

Smarr argues that we're now at the point where we can seriously contemplate creating systems that, under certain conditions, are indistinguishable from reality.

The two most important developments, as I heard them, are

1. The world has an awful lot of fiber optic cable, and we know how to push an amazing amount of information through it; and
2. We have displays that can push as much detail as humans can handle. The input rate to the human eye-brain system (which takes up about 25% of your brain) is roughly 1 Gbps. We're crossing that threshold now, meaning that the foundational capability to do telepresence is here.

What'll this mean? To me, Smarr's most compelling line was that Thomas Friedman argued that relatively slow technologies had made the world flat. In 2015, Smarr argues, a world in which telepresence work won't be flat; it'll be a single point.

Technorati Tags: computer, digital-physical, internet, networks, visualization

Podcast Series on Social Media and Marketing

PodTech is doing a series of podcasts on social media and marketing.  It is called "Marketing Voices" and Jennifer Jones is the host. The most recent show features Edelman PR guru Phil Gomes.  I did the opening podcast, so this does fit a bit under the tag "self promotion". 

Jennifer has a steller list of guests lined up for future shows, and new shows will be released every week or so.

Slingbox goes Mobile

The New York Times has an article covering Slingbox's new mobile feature.  Slingbox is designed:

"to let you, a traveler on the road, watch what's on TV back at your house, or what's been recorded by a video recorder like a TiVo."

Basically, you plug Slingbox into your home network and it will beam TV shows from your DVR or TV to your computer or (now) your mobile device. 

While I think Slingbox is an interesting niche product, its biggest impact is potentially going to be on business models.  A lot of big media companies - and small start-ups - are looking to charge for the delivery of mobile content.  If products like Slingbox can beam content directly to mobile devices from home networks, it will be easy for users to bypass mobile delivery charges. 

Superbowl Ad Scorecard

Reprise Media released their second annual Superbowl Ad Scorecard.  Reprise rates each of the Superbowl ads based on well they integrate the TV ad with online marketing programs.  The press release with links to the scorecard is here.  The press release headline does a good job of summarizing the scorecard:  "Super Bowl Advertisers Still Missing the Big Handoff to Online Channel"

If you are interested in watching the superbowl ads online, iFilms is a good place to go.

Brokeback to the Future

There is a great remix trailer called "Brokeback to the Future" on Youtube.  It is a take off on the movies Brokeback Mountain and Back to the Future, and it is very funny and very well done.

Internet video is exploding and corporations are starting to use Internet video to reach and market to consumers.  Some recent examples are:

1.  Budweiser is launching "Bud TV" this weekend during the superbowl.  "Bud TV" will contain original programming that can be downloaded to computers, cell phones and video iPods.  The show will be on budweiser.com

2.  Amazon is launching an online talk show featuring Bill Maher this summer. 

3.  JnJ has launched "Ouch", which is a website containing original videos and other content related to pain relief.

As home TVs are increasingly connected to the Internet, the reach and power of direct to consumer video will greatly increase.  The next few years will be interesting for network TV.

iPod my ride

Institute friend Peter Hesseldahl writes about iPod integration now influencing car buying:

Several people (no, not from Denmark) have told me how the integration of an ipod with the stereo system was a major factor when they choose their new, expensive car. Amazing how a $250 gadget can determine the purchase of product that's a hundred time more expensive.

Übercool adds to the story:

Few carmakers realize it yet, but seamlessly integrating an Apple iPod with a new automobile is influencing a lot of car buyers.

In one sense it's amazing, as Peter says; but two bigger trends make it make more sensible.

First, plenty of car buyers expect to spend a lot of time in their cars. In major metropolitan areas in the U.S., drivers can spend a couple hours a week-- or, added all together, several days a year-- commuting to and from work (see below). Then add shopping, chauffering kids, etc., and you get a substantial amount of time.

(Source: U.S. Census press release)

This connects to the second trend. More people-- in particular, families in the U.S.-- treat cars not just as transportation devices, but as living rooms. It's where families catch up; sometimes where they eat; and increasingly cars are equipped with comfy chairs, DVD players, and other entertainment systems. So having your music with you-- or more specifically, being able to carry some functionality from your living room to the car-- shouldn't come as a surprise.

Or perhaps the connection comes from another source: cars = mobility; iPod = mobility; ergo, cars = iPod.

What'll really be amazing is if bicycle designers start playing around with iPod integration: adding little speakers on the handlebars, say.

Technorati Tags: Apple, cars, ipod, travel

Quote of the day: "The last presses"

“They may be the last presses we ever own.” (Editor Alan Rusbridger, on the presses the Guardian recently bought, quoted in BuzzMachine)

via Bill McCoy

Technorati Tags: publ, reading

It's the reference to pervasive computing that makes it

The Virtual Air Guitar: all you need is a rock'n'roll attitude

As computers learn how to enhance and augment every form of human endeavour, it was only a matter of time before talentless, uncoordinated individuals such as your humble writer could indulge their musical ambitions and produce sounds to match those in their dreams - and the Virtual Air Guitar project appears to be well on the way to setting would-be musicians free, without the need for even an instrument.

When someone writing about the virtual air guitar can invoke pervasive computing, you know some kind of tipping point has been reached.

But wait a minute. The term "virtual air guitar" ought to be a mind-bending logical construction. After all, air guitar isn't a thing, it's an activity-- playing an imaginary guitar. But the virtual air guitar layers technology atop this imaginary activity, and makes it real: you actually generate chords when you're "playing" the virtual air guitar.

As Keanu Reeves said in The Matrix, "Whoa."

Technorati Tags: digital culture, digital/physical

Will the iPod morph in to a personal server

According to Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, it will, once Apple releases its terabyte iPod:

Say goodbye to your DVD player and Tivo box?

Perhaps, if one analyst's predictions come true -- they could be replaced by the ubiquitous iPod, according to Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, who issued a research note predicting products in Apple's pipeline.

While predicting what products the notoriously secretive Apple is going to launch next can lead normally rational analysts into flights of "wild speculation," as Munster put it, he believes the company is gunning to be the consumer hub for digital media -- and that it's got a foundation in place to do that.

Muster said that within five years, Apple could release an iPod with one terabyte of storage -- that's almost 17 times the maximum amount of iPod storage Apple currently offers.

Munster envisions a one terabyte iPod as a portable, "coffee table" media center that would allow users to store hundreds of movies and thousands of photos and songs. Munster wrote that fellow Piper Jaffray analyst Les Santiago, who covers data storage technologies, thinks Apple could feasibly release a $500, one terabyte iPod in the next five years.

[Via Gizmodo, again]

Technorati Tags: Apple, ipod, memory, ubicomp

Deep thought of the day

From Peter Brantley's shimenawa:

In an interview with the Daily Princetonian, Bill Gates of Microsoft was asked about the next-generation DVD format wars. His response was not at all exceptional save for the last, almost throwaway remark: "Understand that this is the last physical format there will ever be. Everything's going to be streamed directly or on a hard disk. So, in this way, it's even unclear how much this one counts...."

[T]his is a stilling comment. It portends the demise of an evolutionary stage in the development of technologies in human society, with the transition to the more ephemeral storage of content in formats intended for networked distribution, as opposed to physical portability. There are no clear, direct impacts on texts or print, but it does give one pause, and makes one recall just how venerable the book is, and how persistently useful it has been as a means of conveying and sharing thought and expression.

Brantley is Director of Technology of the California Digital Library, and well worth reading.

Technorati Tags: books, culture, media, memory

Memeorandum & Tech News

Memeorandum is a real time, tech related blog news aggregator that is getting a lot positive reviews across the blogosphere.  Tech Crunch describes the product and service in-depth in a glowing post called "Memeorandum is Changing the Web".  I've been using Memeorandum for a month or so and find it very useful.  I've yet to have a  "life changing experience" by using the product, but I hope for such an epiphany. 

Memeorandum is an example of how blogs are taking over the tech news world.  Its automated real time reporting on tech related blog activity far exceeds the tech news reporting capabilities of traditional human based systems. 

Yet another example is CNET's reporting of Apple's recent product announcements.  Instead of the traditional article filled with quotes from industry analysts, CNET has an article that simply lifts from a variety of Apple related blog sites. 

CNET Beta and Participatory Journalism

I went to CNET today and was sent to the CNET beta site.  A couple of things hit me.  They've changed their tag line from "Tech News First" to "News of Change".  I guess it is no longer possible in a world of blogs and specialty tech websites for CNET to deliver "Tech News First". 

The new site design also emphasizes audience participation.  The middle column features "Readers' Choice" based on the most discussed stories, followed by the "Most Popular" stories.  Their old site has these lists, but the beta features them much more prominently.  The third column is called "My News", and gives the reader the ability to create story lists based on keywords.

It also appears, based on the tag line change and new design, that CNET is increasing the amount of tech news synthesis and interpretation they do. 

These are big changes.  Should be interesting to watch.

Steve

Unilever Axe Podcasts

In the August Wired, p. 32, an article: Podcasting for the Man, which mentions the Axe Body Spray Podcast, An example of a large corporation attempting to use podcasting for marketing:

Concept: The anti-corporate, corporate podcast, promoting Axe Body Spray, amid some decent tunes and candid chatter.

Flaw: Music is interrupted by jarring hard sell 'Axe is the hottest body spray .. the hottest deoderant ... one of the hottest brands right now'

Here are the downloadable Podcasts. Unilever has also experimented with video blogging for Axe.  P&G competes with a blog on Secret Sparkle Body Spray.  Gillette makes the competitive Tag spray.  More on Podcasting.

The future of paper

This isn't a post about how paper is going away. Futurists, I think, are past all that, especially after 1) it didn't happen after the explosion of the Web, and 2) The Myth of the Paperless Office explained in terrific detail just how paper works as a medium for collaboration, as a physical object for organizing workplace interactions, and as a tool for instantly seeing the state of a job (in air traffic control, for example).

This evening, I ran across Anonymous Lawyer's post on the uses of paper as dramatic props and communication tools in legal practice (paragraph breaks added):

you can't mark up a document on the computer, you can't carry it down the hall and wave it in someone's face and ask them what they were thinking when they left out the comma on page 17.

I never thought about it before, but I can't imagine ever getting to a point where there wasn't all this paper. You just can't walk into an associate's office, slam your laptop on his desk, and scroll down to the place where he made a mistake. You need to have that brief printed out, you need to be able to tear those pages right in front of eyes, to scatter them wildly across the room, to fill the sheet with red lines and crosses and corrections, to crumple those papers up, toss them in the trash can, light them on fire, and watch them burn.

Sure, we could probably afford to destroy a couple dozen laptops a day just to make a point that we demand perfection -- but paper just works so much better for that.

Incidentally, his blog is worth dropping in on whenever you think your job is bad.

Tivo Pops-Up During Fast Forward

More details about the testing of the Tivo ads that pop-up during fast-forward. This was apparently part of the recently announced Comcast-Tivo deal. I previously posted on this, with some links to Tivo economic models. This brings to mind the book: The Big Picture: the New Logic of Money and Power in Hollywood by Edward Jay Epstein, which talks at considerable length about the evolution of content delivery economic models. The Tivo approach is novel, but how will its users respond? Slashdot post on Tivo's test. Via Richard L. James.

The New Media in 2014

A clever 8 minute video from bloom.org that examines the direction of the new media extrapolating current actions by Google, Microsoft and Sony ... thought provoking ... A time-shifted transmission from the Museum of Media History, 2014 ...

Update: I missed all the information in Slashdot on this ... several comments point out its orgin and more information, see here and also a transcript.

Technologies that Will Jolt the Marketing World

The first issue of CMO magazine details the 5 technologies that they believe will jolt the marketing world in an article called Future Shock:
1.) Internet Data Mining
2.) Virtual Worlds
3.) Decision Markets
4.) Neuromarketing
5.) Automated Behavior Recognition

Read the full article, which provides a good overview of each. These technologies are certainly the flashiest ideas out there, much will be done with more mundane things, but each deserves a close look as they are likely to influence marketing in the next 3-5 years.