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10 posts categorized "Events"

April 09, 2008

Ten Year Forecast conference

The Institute's 2008 Ten Year Forecast conference is going on today at the Mission Bay conference center. The center is part of the new UCSF Mission Bay campus, which is a pretty extraordinary piece of city redevelopment. It's also a very fitting place for this year's conference, as we're talking about innovations in biology and ecology, sources of new economic value, and the development of "amplified humans"-- all things that are happening here.

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September 12, 2007

The Experience of Prediction Markets

I had been co-administering the prediction market for the Open Ex program at IFTF and pulled together a summary for people interested in Prediction Markets.  The IFTF market used InklingMarkets.com as a platform.

These ideas are pulled predominantly from the experience of running the market, rather than participating in the market.

Overview Observations

(1) Don't buy-and-hold. Prediction markets are less enticing the further into the future the event might be.  This is (obviously) because of staleness and the degree of uncertainty as a function of time, but also because a long-term market will hold someone's money trapped for a long time if they're "buy and hold." In other words, given no transaction costs for trading in and out, it's a poor strategy to buy and hold.

(2) Think ahead about how to prove something HASN'T happened. As a market administrator, you have to be very careful when constructing a market to clearly state winning conditions AND, in some cases, sources for establishing winning conditions. If you need to determine that an event has happened, since it's impossible to determine it *hasn't* happened I'd suggest requiring that the event needs to be reported in a limited number of specified, searchable venues. This might be a list of news sources, or even as specific as keyword search engine. Another route would be requiring that the players report on an event happening as proof that it occurred ( i.e. let them participate as news miner-researchers).

(3) Teach Game Strategy to Boost Confidence. There are two main flaws associated with trading. The first is given in this example:  If I believe that Obama's going to win the election, but I think it's about 60% likely and the market's trading at 95%, then I should SELL to bring the percentage in closer to my prediction. However if I sell and the market closes with Obama winning - as I expected him to do - I would lose my trade.  So the market force here actually pushes the market to an extreme price - 95%: the only people who buy at that price would think that 95% is an okay price.  People who believe he'd win but aren't quite so certain, do not sell because they'd be betting against their actual prediction.

The game strategy that would fix this would be to SELL at 95, but make sure that you cover your sell before the market closes regardless of the price.

Alternatively if you were constructing a prediction market software application, you could enable bids to be put in directly for any prediction, but the odds would be different depending on the existing distribution of the predictions. (This would be more of a betting market than a prediction market.)

The second flaw is the assumption that people will be unmoved by mob assessment.  Obviously the predictive value has been shown repeatedly in liquid markets with a lot of information and consensus building done outside the market (e.g. with elections, sporting events, etc.).  However I would imagine in a small market without information, participants might second-guess themselves. This could be a good thing if there is also a way to engage conversation; it could be a bad thing if accurate voices belong to people who lack self-confidence, such as people who rely on their intuition but who function in a strongly analytical environment.

There is an argument to the contrary, that in order for the market to be accurate there needs to be arbitrage players who are acting in uninformed ways and for reasons like entertainment, etc.



Recommendations for Market-Makers


(1) Players MUST trade into and out of the stocks frequently in order to ensure the markets are valid, rather than tending to show only the extremists' views.  This should be formally incentivized. One way would be that the winner is the person with the highest *weighted* score, where the weight is related to the number of trades placed.  (Some serious thought would have to go into that.) Players must also be explicitly taught how to sell an overpriced stock and cover before market close.

(2) Beware insider trading.  There should be conversations outside of the markets regarding the relevant news so that players can feel that they have some basic understanding of the issues. When I set up markets in the game I tried to consistently refer to at least one major news story so that players could get some context to begin with.  If there were more time available, a daily email news feed on all open market topics would be a great help if the markets aren't limited to highly visible news (e.g. the French Presidential Election).

(3) New players probably don't understand how quickly scores can change. Because trades are settled for $0 or $100 (to reflect the 0 or 100% probabilistic outcomes) it's not like real-life stock trading; if you Buy for 51 and you're correct, you make 49 on each share.  You can nearly double your balance in one successsful trade. (Or lose it.)  The leaderboard should be emailed frequently, and top winnings on each *trade* should be publicized .  "Fortunes" are made and lost quickly - this needs to be emphasized.  "The game isn't over until it's over."



Further Thoughts

I'm very interested in how to best capture the meta-market. 

(1) Options Markets. In financial markets, options are a way of pricing the expected future value of a security.  An options market with a rule excluding people from engaging in both the options market and the underlying stock market simultaneously might enable a long term forecast in a short-term timeframe.

For example:  Who will win the Nobel Prize in 2008? might have an associated options market: Will "other" in "Who will win the Nobel Prize in 2008?" be under 25% by midnight, Oct 31, 2007?

(2) Contingency Markets. I'm also interested in contingent markets for this purpose.  A "contingent market" might be a pair of related markets:  One market states that a thing happens, and you're paid the price of something if it does happen and refunded otherwise;  one market states it doesn't happen and  you're paid the price of the same thing if it doesn't happen and refunded otherwise.  The difference in the prices is the markets' expectations of the thing happening on the price of the item.

An example:  What will be the Net Revenues of a company if the CEO is fired? and What will be the Net Revenues of the same company if the CEO isn't fired?  The difference in the pricing will show you the expectation of the CEO leaving on the Net Revenues.

In this way you could have a contingent market, stop it when the action is either taken or not (a definitive short-term action) and then return to benchmark at the end of the period of time -- let's say one year -- what has occurred.  (Presumably everyone who has participated will have use of the funds in the interim and the settlement will really be an adjustment a year later.)

April 17, 2007

Ten Year Forecast meeting

Today we're holding the Institute's annual Ten Year Forecast conference, at the Dolce Hayes Mansion in San Jose. It actually started last night, with a set of games designed by Jane McGonigal to illustrate (or embody, or get people to play out) some of the big trends we're talking about today.

This is the 32nd Ten Year Forecast meeting-- so far as we can tell, one of the oldest continually-running futures conference today.

Much of what we're talking about in this year's forecast deals, in one way or another, with responses to climate change. Perhaps not surprising an overarching theme, but it's playing out in everything from our ethnographic work and surveys, to our forecasts on the impact of 3D printing and the organization of science.

These conferences are an enormous amount of work, but our clients and friends quite like them, so they're worth it.

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April 10, 2007

The Best $95 I've Ever Spent: The New York Academy of Sciences

For any readers in the New York area, I highly suggest you pony up $95 for annual membership in the New York Academy of Sciences. Not only do you get a host of email and print updates, their lecture series (at their newly installed HQ in 7 WTC) are outstanding. Just in the next week, I'm going to see:

The Science of Taste: Molecular Gastronomy
Speaker: Hervé This, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Paris

Biology and Art: Two Worlds or One?
This
conference will explore the nature of the science-art interface, the
inspiration this interface provides to scientists and artists alike,
and the impact of these interactions on art, research, and other human
endeavors.

Brain Science: New Syntheses
Host: Steven J. Pinker, Harvard University

Speakers: Bruce Lahn, University of Chicago; Rebecca Saxe, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
In
tonight's New Vistas lecture, a leader in the field of cognitive
neuroscience moderates a discussion with two researchers who explore
how the physiology of the brain gives rise to our experience of mind.


And I do believe its 100% tax-deductible.


November 03, 2006

From Counterculture to Cyberculture

Earlier this week the Institute had Fred Turner over to give a talk on his new book, From Counterculture to Cyberculture. Tonight Next Thursday, November 9, Fred's part of a symposium at Stanford on the subject.

From Counterculture to Cyberculture: The Legacy of the Whole Earth Catalog

A Public Symposium featuring Stewart Brand, Kevin Kelly, Howard Rheingold and Fred Turner
Thursday, November 9 from 7:00 to 8:30 PM
Cubberly Auditorium, Stanford University

During the 1960s, student marchers chanted "Do not fold, spindle or mutilate!" as they railed against computers and the Cold War-era military industrial complex computers seemed to represent. But within just three decades, computers had become emblems of countercultural revolution.

This symposium will feature a conversation with three people who played key roles in that transformation: Stewart Brand, founder of the Whole Earth Catalog, Kevin Kelly, former executive editor of Wired magazine and author of Out of Control: The Rise of Neo-Biological Civilization and New Rules for the New Economy, and Howard Rheingold, author of The Virtual Community: Homesteading on the Electronic Frontier and Smart Mobs: The Next Social Revolution.

The discussion will be moderated by Fred Turner, assistant professor of communication at Stanford and author of the new book From Counterculture to Cyberculture: Stewart Brand, the Whole Earth Network and the Rise of Digital Utopianism.

This free event is sponsored by the Stanford University Libraries, the Department of Communication, and the American Studies Program.

It will be introduced by Henry Lowood, of the Stanford University Libraries, and followed by a public reception.

No doubt this'll be a fascinating event, if for no other reason than to watch historical subjects put in the same room with the person who's written about them.

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August 02, 2006

California's Kiss Goodbye

Some of you may know that I'm relocating back to New York City in September and will continue working remotely for IFTF. Well I couldn't get away without at least one noticeably freaky earthquake - California just blew me a 4.7 magnitude kiss goodbye from Sonoma!

See the recent California earthquake map. I wasn't sure what had happened, though my whole building shook and I knew it was more than a truck. It came up on the map in less than a minute. This blog entry was up less than 5 minutes later!

I sure hope the grapes are ok up there in wine country.

June 14, 2006

Wall Street Journal on brainstorming

I've spent most of last week and this working on an event I'm leading next week, two days of technology roadmapping and scenario planning. I've organized events before, but every time I do it, I'm impressed with how much work it ought to be.

You have to think about the arrangement of the room (you want people to be able to talk to each other, and see the board).

You have to anticipate how what kinds of supplies you need-- down to the level of numbers of Post-its and pens.

You have to design the processes for every session, down to the minute, and figure out how to structure the day so that each session builds upon earlier ones, and contributes to the next.

You have to think about how interactive and physical the sessions should be: having people get up, interact with stickies on a board, or doing other things takes time, but depending on the time of day, you're better off having people up and about.

You even have to think about the food (the more protein the better-- carbs make you stupid).

And unless you know someone else is responsible for it, you are.

At least, that's the way we do it here.

So, in between e-mails to workshop participants, thinking of questions to ask the venue management, and making up lists of things to send, I was gratified to see the Wall Street Journal article on brainstorming.

[G]reat brainstorming sessions are possible, but they require the planning of a state dinner, plenty of rules, and the suspension of ego, ingratiation and political railroading. Hosts have to hope that people won't expend creative energy trying to tell others their ideas are bad without actually telling them that -- admittedly a real business skill. And they have to cross their fingers that the session won't deteriorate into what some people call "blamestorming" or "coblabberation," where you get nowhere or settle on something mediocre to be done with it....

[I]f you don't carefully follow procedures, you risk wasting a lot of energy. "If you leave groups to their own devices, they're going to do a very miserable job," says Prof. [Paul] B. Paulus, [a professor of psychology at the University of Texas at Arlington]....

When the goal really is ideas, some companies resort to hiring facilitators. Outsiders don't have political dogs in the fight and can, as Bill Hall learned, make people "get back in line." The last time Mr. Hall tried to conduct a session himself on how to save his organization money, "it quickly degenerated into a worthless day," he says.

All this suggests that that time spent on Post-its and process design is worth it. Creativity-- particularly in groups-- isn't just some chaotic, let-it-hang-out, post-hippie thing. You have to build a structure and context around the chaos to have a chance at success.

The one other argument the article makes is that individual brainstorming is actually more effective a way of getting ideas.

Prof. Paulus conducted research on the number and quality of ideas of four people brainstorming together versus four people brainstorming by themselves. Typically, group brainstormers perform at about half the level they would if they brainstormed alone.... [I]f people brainstorm alone after the group brainstorming session, it can [also] be productive, he says, adding, "It's ironic: You tap the benefits of groups alone. Everyone still presumes the best brainstorming is group brainstorming."

David Perkins, a professor at the Harvard Graduate School of Education, warns that sometimes group sessions can result in one person's bad idea tainting and limiting the range of others' ideas. "The best way to get good ideas is to get people to write them down privately and then bring them in," he says.

It's an interesting idea, and I wonder: is there a literature on individual brainstorming? There are lots of books about how to be more creative, but is there something that parallels the pretty extensive literature on group processes?

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April 05, 2005

Cebit 2005

Over at the newly translated Innovation Lab site, we have a selection of some of the most interesting things we spotted at the recent Cebit 2005 show in Hannover.

See among other things, the UltraCane, which is designed to give the blind greater confidence and freedom of movement, Wedge which is a spectacular screen that consists of a thin sheet of plexiglass with a projector in the base and the Ay one, from Siemens, which is a cell phone that uses microsensors instead of keys.

September 28, 2004

SIMS distinguished lecture series

Even though I've spoken in and thus am a suspect source, I wanted to point to this fall's UC Berkeley School of Information Management and Systems Distinguished Lecture Series.

It's a very diverse, interesting group of speakers, ranging from former Amazon.com CTO Andreas Weigend (speaking tomorrow) to Stanford's Fred Turner, to Genevieve Bell. and a good audience-- even though Berkeley has SO many different things going on, it's easy for people to get overloaded and just hang out at Cafe Milano.

I suspect many of our readers are within striking distance of Berkeley, and they should check out the events if they're in the area.

May 17, 2004

Sensing overview @ Stanford (Free!)

Thursday, May 20, 4:15-5:30 p.m.

Three researchers from Stanford's School of Engineering will be talking about the current sensor research at the school.

Mark Brongersma, Materials Science and Engineering
Nicholas Melosh, Materials Science and Engineering
Ozgur Sahin, Electrical Engineering

Skilling Engineering Auditorium, Stanford University.

Continue reading "Sensing overview @ Stanford (Free!)" »

March 04, 2004

Presentation the future of new media

Before I came to the Institute, I worked at the Encyclopaedia Britannica, running their editorial division during the company's transition from print publishing to electronic publishing. It was very interesting being at a 200 year-old company trying to figure out its way in the digital age, and I learned a lot about technology's impact on business, the workplace, and the craft of knowledge-creation.

Last night I had a chance to put together my previous and current life: I gave a talk at Cal State Hayward's multimedia graduate program on pervasive computing and the future of new media. Essentially, I argue that pervasive computing, by radically changing the nature of human-computer interaction, will create a whole new set of challenges for people interested in using computers as a creative medium.

It's the result of just a couple days' thinking, so it's not even a serious forecast, just some informed speculation: however, for anyone who's interested, the slides are available here. It's a 800K PDF file, so caveat downloader.

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