About the Institute for the Future

About Future Now


  • IFTF's Future Now draws on research and forecasting at the Institute for the Future, a Palo Alto, CA think tank specializing in the future of technology, health, and organizational change. It began in September 2003.

Who is Future Now?

  • IFTF's Future Now is a group weblog, founded by Institute research director Alex Soojung-Kim Pang in September 2003. Its contributors include IFTF researchers interested in emerging technologies, the future of Asia, and the social and economic impacts on new technologies; IFTF corporate affiliates; academic partners; and members of the Innovation Lab, a Danish futures group with offices in Aarhus and Copenhagen. A complete list of contributors is available here.

The Future of Cities - A conversation about global urbanization in the 21st century

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62 posts categorized "Digital-physical convergence"

August 02, 2007

Sharkrunners: Real World Sensor Grid Feeds Hybrid Reality Science Game

IFTF friends area/code, a pervasive game design consultancy based in Manhattan launched Sharkrunners last week on the Discovery Channel's website as part of the 20th anniversary of Shark Week celebration.

Some of you may be aware of my fascination with all things marine and nautical, which I'm trying to record over at the Blue Economy Blog. But Sharkrunners is more than just an aquageek's dream. It's a multiplayer web game that's drawing down real sensor data from a collection of sharks that have been tagged off the coast of California by marine biologists. As the real sharks' positions are plotted using real-time GPS tracks, you move your virtual science vessel around to chase them. When you encounter a shark you are presented with options to send divers down to collect data, which results in additional research funding or sometimes SHARK ATTACKS! that can injure your researchers.

This is a great example of sensory infrastructure being used in a novel way for fun and learning, and it will be very interesting to watch as others find ways to extend this model.

July 25, 2007

Network Reliability in San Francisco and New York

It's funny - I spent a half hour the other day on the phone sharing some insights with a team from the New York City Economic Development Corporation, the city agency that is developing a telecommunications plan for the Big Apple. They are focusing on ways to assess and ultimately improve network reliability so that even while terrorists fly jetliners into skyscrapers, blackouts occur, or steampipes explode, the investment banks and global media companies can stay connected.

My advice was - telecom networks are among the most resilient infrastructures we have. Let the carriers worry about that, as their customers will demand what they think they need. But they depend on two critical underlying infrastructures that are old, weak, decaying, and highly vulnerable: physical conduits (tunnels, roads, even sewers and water mains). It's also an areas where local governments have some regulatory pressure to apply (versus telecom where they have almost none).

Two days later, Pacific Gas & Electric in San Francisco proved my point for me by letting a transformer explosion knock some important web services offline. GigaOM has great coverage:

This resulted in a transformer blowing up, and causing even more disruptions, especially at 365 Main, one of the large co-lo/data center facilities situated in the SOMA area of San Francisco.

This resulted in massive outages at some of Web 2.0’s brand name companies - Six Apart, Facebook, Technorati and Yelp - knocking out their systems and web services out flat. Whatever the reasons behind the failure might be, yesterday was a rude reminder of how fragile our digital lives are.

The seemingly invincible web services (not to mention the notional wealth they signify) vanish within a blink of the eye. It was also a reminder, that all the hoopla around web services is just noise - for in the end the hardware, the plumbing, the pipes and more importantly, the power grid is the real show.

Full article. Also see O'Reilly Radar blog's coverage.

Update: Sean Ness of IFTF forwarded me a blog comment by somafm that has a fairly detailed technical explanation of the chain of events that brought down 365 Main, the AboveNet data center that was at the heart of web outages caused by the San Francisco blackout:

365 Main, like all facilities built by AboveNet back in the day, doesn't have a battery backup UPS. Instead, they have these things called "CPS," or continuous power systems. What they are is very very large flywheels that sit between electric motors and generators. So the power from PG&E never directly touches 365 Main. PG&E power drives the motors which turn the flywheels which then turn the generators (or alternators, I don't remember the exact details) which in turn power the facility. There are 10 of these on their roof.

The flywheels (the CPS system) can run the generator at full load for up to 60 seconds according to the specs.

There are also 10 large diesel engines up on the roof as well, connected to these flywheels. If the power is out for more than 15 seconds, the generators start up, and clutch in and drive the flywheels. There are no generators in the basement. (There is a large fuel storage in the basement, and the fuel is pumped up to the roof. There are smaller fuel tanks on the roof as well. )

Here's what I think happened. Since there were several brief outages in a row before the power went out for good, it seems that the CPS (flywheel) systems weren't fully back up to speed when the next outage occurred. Since several of these grid power interruption happened in a row, and were shorter than the time required to trigger generator startup, the generators were not automatically started, BUT the CPS didn't have time to get back up to full capacity. By the 6th power glitch, there wasn't enough energy stored in the flywheels to keep the system going long enough for the diesel generators to start up and come to speed before switching over.

Why they just didn't manually switch on the generators at that point is beyond me.

So they had a brief power outage. By our logs, it looks like it was at the most 2 minutes, but probably closer to 20 seconds or so.

Update #2: From Good Morning Silicon Valley:

OK, it's all happenstance and coincidence, but those inclined to see omens and portents might be excused for thinking that the gods are displeased with the Net. Almost a month ago, a huge fire in downtown Palo Alto came within an alley of PAIX, the Palo Alto Internet Exchange, one of the major crossroads in the country for data traffic, threatening vast disruption. Then yesterday, a series of electrical outages and fluctuations left a good-size chunk of San Francisco powerless for several hours during the middle of the business day, including hosting service 365 Main, which powers many of the Web's most popular sites and boasts of doubly redundant backup in case of blackouts.

The effect rippled through the wired world. LiveJournal and Second Life went dead, AdBrite dimmed, Craigslist became unlisted, the 1Up gaming network went down, Facebook turned blank, Six Apart couldn't get it together, and Yelp was rendered silent. Unable to work, Web 2.0 programmers slathered themselves with sunscreen and stumbled into the unfamiliar daylight. Families were reunited as thousands of idled bloggers pushed away from the keyboard and were greeted by loved ones. Global temperature dropped as servers and PCs rested silently.

Soon enough, though, normality was restored, and the words "wake-up call" were zipping across the Net. "It exposed a larger vulnerability," said Technorati exec Derek Gordon . "If this could happen to such a collection of major websites, what would happen if this was part of a major catastrophe? This was sort of a wake-up call." And Don Dodge notes that this is exactly why companies that can afford it, like Microsoft and Google, are building their own multiple data centers.

Still, alarms about something as daunting and expensive as replacing aging infrastructure tend to get the snooze treatment until something truly calamitous happens. For a preview, see the Onion's report on the Great Web Crash of '07.

Network Reliability in San Francisco and New York

It's funny - I spent a half hour the other day on the phone sharing some insights with a team from the New York City Economic Development Corporation, the city agency that is developing a telecommunications plan for the Big Apple. They are focusing on ways to assess and ultimately improve network reliability so that even while terrorists fly jetliners into skyscrapers, blackouts occur, or steampipes explode, the investment banks and global media companies can stay connected.

My advice was - telecom networks are among the most resilient infrastructures we have. Let the carriers worry about that, as their customers will demand what they think they need. But they depend on two critical underlying infrastructures that are old, weak, decaying, and highly vulnerable: physical conduits (tunnels, roads, even sewers and water mains). It's also an areas where local governments have some regulatory pressure to apply (versus telecom where they have almost none).

Two days later, Pacific Gas & Electric in San Francisco proved my point for me by letting a transformer explosion knock some important web services offline. GigaOM has great coverage:

This resulted in a transformer blowing up, and causing even more disruptions, especially at 365 Main, one of the large co-lo/data center facilities situated in the SOMA area of San Francisco.

This resulted in massive outages at some of Web 2.0’s brand name companies - Six Apart, Facebook, Technorati and Yelp - knocking out their systems and web services out flat. Whatever the reasons behind the failure might be, yesterday was a rude reminder of how fragile our digital lives are.

The seemingly invincible web services (not to mention the notional wealth they signify) vanish within a blink of the eye. It was also a reminder, that all the hoopla around web services is just noise - for in the end the hardware, the plumbing, the pipes and more importantly, the power grid is the real show.

Full article. Also see O'Reilly Radar blog's coverage.

Update: Sean Ness of IFTF forwarded me a blog comment by somafm that has a fairly detailed technical explanation of the chain of events that brought down 365 Main, the AboveNet data center that was at the heart of web outages caused by the San Francisco blackout:

365 Main, like all facilities built by AboveNet back in the day, doesn't have a battery backup UPS. Instead, they have these things called "CPS," or continuous power systems. What they are is very very large flywheels that sit between electric motors and generators. So the power from PG&E never directly touches 365 Main. PG&E power drives the motors which turn the flywheels which then turn the generators (or alternators, I don't remember the exact details) which in turn power the facility. There are 10 of these on their roof.

The flywheels (the CPS system) can run the generator at full load for up to 60 seconds according to the specs.

There are also 10 large diesel engines up on the roof as well, connected to these flywheels. If the power is out for more than 15 seconds, the generators start up, and clutch in and drive the flywheels. There are no generators in the basement. (There is a large fuel storage in the basement, and the fuel is pumped up to the roof. There are smaller fuel tanks on the roof as well. )

Here's what I think happened. Since there were several brief outages in a row before the power went out for good, it seems that the CPS (flywheel) systems weren't fully back up to speed when the next outage occurred. Since several of these grid power interruption happened in a row, and were shorter than the time required to trigger generator startup, the generators were not automatically started, BUT the CPS didn't have time to get back up to full capacity. By the 6th power glitch, there wasn't enough energy stored in the flywheels to keep the system going long enough for the diesel generators to start up and come to speed before switching over.

Why they just didn't manually switch on the generators at that point is beyond me.

So they had a brief power outage. By our logs, it looks like it was at the most 2 minutes, but probably closer to 20 seconds or so.

Update #2: From Good Morning Silicon Valley:

OK, it's all happenstance and coincidence, but those inclined to see omens and portents might be excused for thinking that the gods are displeased with the Net. Almost a month ago, a huge fire in downtown Palo Alto came within an alley of PAIX, the Palo Alto Internet Exchange, one of the major crossroads in the country for data traffic, threatening vast disruption. Then yesterday, a series of electrical outages and fluctuations left a good-size chunk of San Francisco powerless for several hours during the middle of the business day, including hosting service 365 Main, which powers many of the Web's most popular sites and boasts of doubly redundant backup in case of blackouts.

The effect rippled through the wired world. LiveJournal and Second Life went dead, AdBrite dimmed, Craigslist became unlisted, the 1Up gaming network went down, Facebook turned blank, Six Apart couldn't get it together, and Yelp was rendered silent. Unable to work, Web 2.0 programmers slathered themselves with sunscreen and stumbled into the unfamiliar daylight. Families were reunited as thousands of idled bloggers pushed away from the keyboard and were greeted by loved ones. Global temperature dropped as servers and PCs rested silently.

Soon enough, though, normality was restored, and the words "wake-up call" were zipping across the Net. "It exposed a larger vulnerability," said Technorati exec Derek Gordon . "If this could happen to such a collection of major websites, what would happen if this was part of a major catastrophe? This was sort of a wake-up call." And Don Dodge notes that this is exactly why companies that can afford it, like Microsoft and Google, are building their own multiple data centers.

Still, alarms about something as daunting and expensive as replacing aging infrastructure tend to get the snooze treatment until something truly calamitous happens. For a preview, see the Onion's report on the Great Web Crash of '07.

Network Reliability in San Francisco and New York

It's funny - I spent a half hour the other day on the phone sharing some insights with a team from the New York City Economic Development Corporation, the city agency that is developing a telecommunications plan for the Big Apple. They are focusing on ways to assess and ultimately improve network reliability so that even while terrorists fly jetliners into skyscrapers, blackouts occur, or steampipes explode, the investment banks and global media companies can stay connected.

My advice was - telecom networks are among the most resilient infrastructures we have. Let the carriers worry about that, as their customers will demand what they think they need. But they depend on two critical underlying infrastructures that are old, weak, decaying, and highly vulnerable: physical conduits (tunnels, roads, even sewers and water mains). It's also an areas where local governments have some regulatory pressure to apply (versus telecom where they have almost none).

Two days later, Pacific Gas & Electric in San Francisco proved my point for me by letting a transformer explosion knock some important web services offline. GigaOM has great coverage:

This resulted in a transformer blowing up, and causing even more disruptions, especially at 365 Main, one of the large co-lo/data center facilities situated in the SOMA area of San Francisco.

This resulted in massive outages at some of Web 2.0’s brand name companies - Six Apart, Facebook, Technorati and Yelp - knocking out their systems and web services out flat. Whatever the reasons behind the failure might be, yesterday was a rude reminder of how fragile our digital lives are.

The seemingly invincible web services (not to mention the notional wealth they signify) vanish within a blink of the eye. It was also a reminder, that all the hoopla around web services is just noise - for in the end the hardware, the plumbing, the pipes and more importantly, the power grid is the real show.

Full article. Also see O'Reilly Radar blog's coverage.

Update: Sean Ness of IFTF forwarded me a blog comment by somafm that has a fairly detailed technical explanation of the chain of events that brought down 365 Main, the AboveNet data center that was at the heart of web outages caused by the San Francisco blackout:

365 Main, like all facilities built by AboveNet back in the day, doesn't have a battery backup UPS. Instead, they have these things called "CPS," or continuous power systems. What they are is very very large flywheels that sit between electric motors and generators. So the power from PG&E never directly touches 365 Main. PG&E power drives the motors which turn the flywheels which then turn the generators (or alternators, I don't remember the exact details) which in turn power the facility. There are 10 of these on their roof.

The flywheels (the CPS system) can run the generator at full load for up to 60 seconds according to the specs.

There are also 10 large diesel engines up on the roof as well, connected to these flywheels. If the power is out for more than 15 seconds, the generators start up, and clutch in and drive the flywheels. There are no generators in the basement. (There is a large fuel storage in the basement, and the fuel is pumped up to the roof. There are smaller fuel tanks on the roof as well. )

Here's what I think happened. Since there were several brief outages in a row before the power went out for good, it seems that the CPS (flywheel) systems weren't fully back up to speed when the next outage occurred. Since several of these grid power interruption happened in a row, and were shorter than the time required to trigger generator startup, the generators were not automatically started, BUT the CPS didn't have time to get back up to full capacity. By the 6th power glitch, there wasn't enough energy stored in the flywheels to keep the system going long enough for the diesel generators to start up and come to speed before switching over.

Why they just didn't manually switch on the generators at that point is beyond me.

So they had a brief power outage. By our logs, it looks like it was at the most 2 minutes, but probably closer to 20 seconds or so.

Update #2: From Good Morning Silicon Valley:

OK, it's all happenstance and coincidence, but those inclined to see omens and portents might be excused for thinking that the gods are displeased with the Net. Almost a month ago, a huge fire in downtown Palo Alto came within an alley of PAIX, the Palo Alto Internet Exchange, one of the major crossroads in the country for data traffic, threatening vast disruption. Then yesterday, a series of electrical outages and fluctuations left a good-size chunk of San Francisco powerless for several hours during the middle of the business day, including hosting service 365 Main, which powers many of the Web's most popular sites and boasts of doubly redundant backup in case of blackouts.

The effect rippled through the wired world. LiveJournal and Second Life went dead, AdBrite dimmed, Craigslist became unlisted, the 1Up gaming network went down, Facebook turned blank, Six Apart couldn't get it together, and Yelp was rendered silent. Unable to work, Web 2.0 programmers slathered themselves with sunscreen and stumbled into the unfamiliar daylight. Families were reunited as thousands of idled bloggers pushed away from the keyboard and were greeted by loved ones. Global temperature dropped as servers and PCs rested silently.

Soon enough, though, normality was restored, and the words "wake-up call" were zipping across the Net. "It exposed a larger vulnerability," said Technorati exec Derek Gordon . "If this could happen to such a collection of major websites, what would happen if this was part of a major catastrophe? This was sort of a wake-up call." And Don Dodge notes that this is exactly why companies that can afford it, like Microsoft and Google, are building their own multiple data centers.

Still, alarms about something as daunting and expensive as replacing aging infrastructure tend to get the snooze treatment until something truly calamitous happens. For a preview, see the Onion's report on the Great Web Crash of '07.

May 28, 2007

Telepresence: it's the details?

In the first years after its founding in 1968, one of the biggest projects the Institute for the Future undertook was a study of online collaboration systems, and their impact on organizational behavior. The dream of the electronic system that's as good as a real meeting refuses to die; but unlike some futuristic technologies (I'm talking to you, personal jet pack), this one seems to be getting closer to reality, as this weekend's New York Times article on the latest high-end telepresence systems suggests.

High-end videoconferencing — the magical ability to be two places at once — has had a bumpy past, plagued by jerky gestures, out-of-sync lips and sound and cumbersome equipment. Few executives liked what they saw, including unflattering pictures of themselves, and most thought the business tool was not worth the price.

But now, thanks to new technology, videoconferencing is delivering on its promise as an alternative to traditional business travel. The high-definition TV images are sharp. Broadband fiber-optic cable has replaced tired telephone lines. And the equipment is often installed in studios that are handsome and appropriately corporate....

Two things are notable about this upsurge in telepresence.

First, the video, audio, and connections are all unquestionably getting better. But what's really interesting to me about these systems, and what makes them more successful, are the low-tech details that HP, Cisco and other companies use to fill in the gaps between video and reality.

Cisco’s virtual meeting room includes an IP (Internet Protocol) phone, three broadcast-quality cameras, three ultrasensitive mikes, three 60-inch plasma screens, a crescent-shaped table that seats six and soft back-lighting.

“The table is maple to complement faces,” said a Cisco spokeswoman, Jacqueline Pigliucci. The studios are painted in identical colors, to give the impression that the people on the screen are in the same room.

The couple people I've talked to who've used these systems say that the room design is what really makes the illusion work. Another is that the service on these high-end systems is very good: as one consultant quoted in the New York Times article says, "Walk in a Halo room, and everything is ready to run." (No one ever has to reboot a real conference room.) Of course, seamlessness comes at a cost: about $18,000 a month, to be precise.

In other words, it's not just that the technology is getting better in the conventional, specs-are-getting-more-impressive kind of way: the experience of using these systems is changing for the better because their designers are paying more attention to deployment and maintenance. Nothing breaks the illusion of seamlessness like having to reboot the computer the video conference was supposed to run on.

The second notable thing is who's really using these systems.

It might be just an artifact of a very small sample size, but the heaviest users I've heard of are groups who already have standing meetings, not people who are using these systems to substitute for first-time meetings with prospective clients. The technology isn't bringing together people who have never met before, but is strengthening an connection between colleagues. As Business Week reported earlier this year,

A typical user is private equity star Blackstone Group. Several times a week, CEO Stephen A. Schwarzman gathers senior managing partners around a polished conference table in the firm's New York headquarters on Park Avenue for a five-way video call.... Blackstone has 40 video rooms stationed around the world. One executive is so enthralled with the system that he keeps the conference connection running in his office all day long. "We're big proponents of videoconferencing because of the way it enhances the quality of meetings," says Harry D. Moseley, Blackstone's chief information officer.

Financial and consulting firms have been particularly avid purchasers. Deloitte & Touche USA is installing a dozen $250,000 video suites made by Polycom so that various business units can collaborate on outsourcing ideas or interview job candidates from India. AIC Ventures, a real estate investment company, has three video rooms: one in its home base of Austin, Tex., another in Dallas, and one in Chicago. They are used for everything from reviewing new Web page designs to celebrating the close of a big deal with a (now crystal-clear) ring of a tabletop gong.

This is a bit like the experience we've had at the Institute with Google Docs: that collaboration tool has its uses for asynchronous collaboration among geographically-dispersed authors, but the best uses come when authors are in the same room, and able to talk about the document in real time.

Despite this, at least one telepresence consulting company argues that this isn't the future: "effective inter-company business," they maintain, "will be propelling this industry forward in the coming years (remember where you heard it first!).... The future of telepresence will be about connecting with vendors, customers, and joint venture partners... to lower the shared costs of business relationships."

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May 25, 2007

Cool bar

The i-bar, a 10 meter-long bar that's also an interactive display.

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April 26, 2007

The End of Mobile Social Web 1.0

I first met Dennis Crowley in 2001, a few months before he and partner Alex Rainert, both grad students at NYU's Interactive Telecommunications Program, launched the mobile version of Dodgeball as part of their thesis project. I remember thinking, this is interesting. Not long after that, Clay Shirky (inspired largely by Dodgeball and other ITP projects), wrote a great piece on what he called "situated software". In short, Dodgeball was an early indicator of a new ecosystem of lightweight apps create by small communities of users for each other.

And it's been fascinating to watch Dodgeball work its way through the multiple challenges of innovation in the mobile application space - from overcoming walled gardens, to massaging their UI model, to the dozens of social hacks to make the service appealing and fun without being annoying. (Crowley used to give presentations that had a whole slide called "The Ex-Girlfriend Problem"). In the process, they figured out how to make Dodgeball scale beyond its small early adopter community in downtown Manhattan.

When Google picked up Dodgeball 2 years ago, there were cheers throughout the scattered remnants of Silicon Alley. Gotham City still had something to teach the West Coast math geeks about taking the web to the streets. Developers in California spend their weekends hunched underneath their desks eating pizza and playing Doom. As Crowley's Dodgeball profile summed it up, New York's new breed of mobile developers were more likely to "spend my weekends either (a) fixing this website, (b) on a chairlift or (c) hungover." No Second Life here, we're looking for tools to have a more interesting, intense, serendipitous First Life.

So it's come as a real shame that Crowley and Rainert have left Google. It's truly the end of Mobile Social Web 1.0. While Dodgeball never figured out how to monetize its network without really pissing people off (there was an unsuccessful attempt to create an Absolut Vodka user that people could friend to get invited to events with free drinks), it was a light in the dark for entrepreneurs trying to figure out how to break open the mobile Internet, despite the obstacles imposed by mobile carriers. And it was just plain fun.

The worst part is that the future of the mobile social web looks bleak. Twitter has stolen a lot of the thunder as Dodgeball stagnated over the last year due to benign neglect inside the G-plex. But as a great comment on today's ValleyWag story speculating on a shutdown of Dodgeball puts it:

Twitter is just a suburban man's Dodgeball. They have no lives, therefore, they twitter.

If Twitter is the mobile social web 2.0, I want a downgrade.

More importantly though, I fear what this development has to say about Google's much-touted R&D model of letting employees spend a day working on their own projects. To date, the only thing that Google has figured out how to monetize out of beta is search.

If two talented and motivated innovators like Crowley and Rainert - who were given ALL of their time to work on an idea that was ALREADY PROVEN to be successful - were frustrated enough to leave the money and free gourmet food behind, it tells me that the Google research emperor might not have any clothes.

April 13, 2007

Language Schools in the New, Voice-Enabled Second Life

Second Life has finally caught up with every other immersive VR world (games) and will soon have voice capabilities. Entrepreneurs are stepping up and exploiting this new medium to offer interesting services like virtual language schools.

Technology Review: A Boon to Second Life Language Schools

Immersive language learning in a realistic environment with native-speaking teachers will soon be available online, in the popular virtual world Second Life. Starting in September, a language school called Languagelab.com will offer English and Spanish classes. The cost of the classes will be comparable to those in the real world, which can cost several hundred U.S. dollars for a semester-long course. "You won't be taking classes in LanguageLab because it's a lot cheaper," says LanguageLab founder David Kaskel, an entrepreneur and PhD candidate at the Center for Computing in the Humanities at King's College, London. "We think it's a lot better than in a physical space because there's more you can offer than in a classroom."

I have to wonder, though, if this is one of those examples of good intentions gone very very bad. Isn't the whole idea of language immersion about gaining the deep, rich cultural and human context that language is embedded in? Doing it in a virtual space seems even worse than doing it in a classroom, where you are stuck for 90 minutes with a teacher and classmates. No logging off if you don't know what to say. You're on the spot.

Seems like a case of bad virtualization to me.

February 28, 2007

MagicBoard - lightweight interaction space

I'm surprised that this software was developed in 2003 and I haven't heard more about it. MagicBoard is like a lightweight version of Jeff Han's Multi-Touch Interaction work that was demoed at TED recently.  The setup could be as simple as a whiteboard, a video camera, and a projector (image below links to video).  When I mentioned this to Alex, he immediately started imagining an  environment with multiple translucent screens with the cameras in front and projectors behind the screens.

Magicboard

The user works on the board as in the usual way, drawing or writing with ordinary marker pens. Whenever she chooses, the user can "grab" an electronic copy of the things that have been drawn or written with the marker pen. This copy is projected back onto the board, precisely overlaying the original markings with the appropriate colour. The physical ink may then be erased and the electronic version manipulated on the board's surface: it can be duplicated, moved, enlarged or reduced, printed, or hidden for a moment before being recalled.

(from Barney Pell's blog)

December 14, 2006

Second Life avatars consume as much electricity as Brazilians

A few weeks ago I saw an estimate by Russel Seitz of how much cyberspace weighs. (Two ounces, if you're interested.) Now, Nick Carr (author of Does IT Matter?, which I've written about here and here) calculates that a Second Life avatar consumes as much electricity as a Brazilian:

If there are on average between 10,000 and 15,000 avatars "living" in Second Life at any point, that means the world has a population of about 12,500. Supporting those 12,500 avatars requires 4,000 servers as well as the 12,500 PCs the avatars' physical alter egos are using. Conservatively, a PC consumes 120 watts and a server consumes 200 watts. Throw in another 50 watts per server for data-center air conditioning. So, on a daily basis, overall Second Life power consumption equals... 60,000 kilowatt-hours....

Which, annualized, gives us [an average avatar consumption of] 1,752 kWh. So an avatar consumes 1,752 kWh per year..... [T]he average citizen of Brazil consumes 1,884 kWh, which, given the fact that my avatar estimate was rough and conservative, means that your average Second Life avatar consumes about as much electricity as your average Brazilian.

Which means, in turn, that avatars aren't quite as intangible as they seem. They don't have bodies, but they do leave footprints.

From Mark Baard via Tim Bray.

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August 01, 2006

Yahoo! Design Expo

Yesterday I went to the Yahoo Design Expo, an event bringing together bright design students from the U.S., England, and Brazil.

The exhibit had a number of demos or performance art-like pieces, which ranged from a bit weird (but I'm not very avant-garde) to fun to pretty compelling. Peter Merholz is right that Aaron Koblin's work is mighty cool, but I thought that the expo overall exhibited a few interesting themes. First, as Larry Tesler pointed out, they all played with a few big themes:

  • Tangible interfaces;
  • Collaborative/social media things;
  • Geolocation;
  • Wacky performance art stuff.

Okay, the last one might have been mine. (And for anyone who was there, yes, I'm the one that nearly destroyed the project with the spitballs and the ship's wheel. And yes, I hate art that much. I truly do.)

I talked for a few minutes with Joy Mountford, who has been organizing this expo every year since 1990, and got Yahoo to sponsor it after she joined the company as a senior designer. Joy is one of those Silicon Valley interface design types who's made the pilgrimages to all the storied, hot but unstable, or interesting places-- she founded Apple's International Interface Design Project, worked at Interval Research in the 1990s, and now it at Yahoo-- and taught here and there. (This ACM Ubiquity interview is a good intro to her work.) It's the kind of career path that's like a river. To visitors it seems meandering. Those more familiar it can decipher its logic and know its more picturesque turns. And the river itself is absolutely determined to get somewhere.

We talked about how the expo has evolved over the years. In particular I wanted to know when the tangible interface stuff-- which connects with my own work on the end of cyberspace-- started showing up, and when people started trying to move interface design beyond the WIMP interface. She said that there had always been such projects, but they'd become more prominent in the last few years, and now were commonplace: everyone in design and UI circles takes for granted that this is the future.

But the most interesting thing she said was that while in the Olden Days, students had to do a lot of fudging and improvising-- using magnets instead of sensors, or doing videos that showed how something would work if the technology were available-- today, the sensors, RFID tags, and just about everything else you need to make a working prototype are within an intelligent student's reach. At least four of the projects were using Max, a high-level programming language that makes it pretty easy to build simple systems combining sensors, logic, and actuators.*

As Larry Tesler put it, an exhibit like this is worth putting on at a place like Yahoo for two reasons: first, it gets Yahoo people thinking outside the box; and second, art students are a group that's regularly thinking about things that everyone else thinks about a few years later. As William Gibson might put it, they have an unusually high concentration of the future.

My instinct is that this is true for the tools they use, as well: just as CAD has gone from an exotic expensive thing to something that you play with in Second Life, and robotics is now as accessible as Lego, If design students are able to build M.A. projects with this stuff, when my daughter is in high school she'll be building anti-sibling detectors to keep her younger brother and his various robots (which he will have also built) out of her room.

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July 17, 2006

Memory spots

HP has announced a new device, Memory Spots. They're similar to RFID tags, in that they're passive, wireless, and are designed to carry information around on physical objects; however, they have more processing power and memory, and HP doesn't envision them being used in the supply chain.

My instinct is that while the company talks about early uses in documents and medical contexts, the big niches will be elsewhere, as an augment objects that have have complicated histories or are embedded in rich social networks.

More on the Spots at End of Cyberspace.

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July 07, 2006

Emotion maps

Via Smartspace:

Christian Nold, a London-based artist... is combining a GPS receiver with a Galvanic Skin Response sensor to get a picture of the emotional map of a location. The results--which he calls Biomapping-- are stunning, and the implications could be interesting as well for marketers, urban planners and surely others interested in how people respond emotionally to the landscape around themselves -- from excitement in a commercial district to anxiety at a busy crossing to tranquility in a country setting.

As Nold explains,

Bio Mapping is a research project which explores new ways that we as individuals can make use of the information we can gather about our own bodies. Instead of security technologies that are designed to control our behaviour, this project envisages new tools that allows people to selectively share and interpret their own bio data.

The Bio Mapping tool allows the wearer to record their Galvanic Skin Response (GSR), which is a simple indicator of emotional arousal in conjunction with their geographical location. This can be used to plot a map that highlights point of high and low arousal. By sharing this data we can construct maps that visualise where we as a community feel stressed and excited.

Personally, I wonder if this isn't an experiment that instead of indicating "How... our perceptions of our community and environment... [will] change when we become aware of our own and each others intimate body states," will help us figure out what kinds of emotional states we don't want revealed. If I were a mugger, isn't this the kind of information I'd like to see about a mark? (Perhaps it's information that talented thieves can already sense, even if they're not quite conscious of it?)

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June 22, 2006

Adam Greenfield on Everyware

Adam Greenfield gave a talk at the Institute today. Here are the notes:

What

AG's notion of ubicomp draws on Weiser's vision of computing being "invisible but everywhere around us" (weiser 1990), built upon very cheap computing "spread around like grass seeds", and "embedded, wireless, imperceptible, multiple, and post-gui" (AG, 2006).

This would generate new kinds of modalities of interaction, particularly design "dissolving into behavior."

It would also allow for the instantiation of computing and interaction with it at a wide variety of physical scales, at the level of the body (Body Media SenseWear), the object, the room (Sensasell), the building, the street (Shinjuku RFID lamppost).

But they're also networked together, which allows for some really interesting interactions; and hard to see, literally and figuratively (because you can't detect or sense embedded computing). So what does this look like?

Meaning

In the PC age, you have clear interactions and presentations of self: it's obvious to others that you're online, and it's obvious to you what technologies you're using (or are studying you). In everyware, in contrast, users aren't knowingly engaged in a technical interaction; they're surrounded by many devices, systems and services; their positions (location, orientation) matter.

"The way the self is perceived is beyond the user's control."

Desigers "need to take particular care in crafting these experiences, because... everyware can be engaged" inadvertently, unknowingly, or unwillingly.

When

Isn't this all science fiction? No. Here are three straws in the wind:

Octopus (1997): RFID-based smart card infrastructure in Hong Kong, adopted by 95% of the population, and is used constantly-- at vending machines, public transportation, as a key, an e-money. You don't get much more ubiquitous than this.

New Songdo (2004): Korea's ubiquitous city, filled with RFID, sensors, etc..

Mastercard Paypass (2005): RFID-embedded credit card. Market research suggested that people would spend more when they can just swipe and go; but it hasn't worked out, in part because Paypass is more of a stand-alone system than Octopus. Still, it's a signal that these kinds of everyware are coming to the U.S.

Why Do It?

Why are companies into it?

  • Money.
  • Structurally latent. IPv6 gives enough address to provide a vast number of addresses.
  • "It's technically sweet."
  • Public safety.

How

How to design systems that respect prerogatives of civil liberties, privacy, etc.? AG suggests five ethical principles:

  1. Default to harmlessness. Everyware "should default to a mode that ensures their users' safety." It's beyond graceful degredation, because everyware takes so much responsibility upon itself to take care of people.
  2. Be self-disclosing. You should be able to see what systems are operating in a space, both to geeks and to people who aren't wired up. This requires "a new universal vocabulary of signs" for everyware; and the ability to look under the hood.
  3. Be conservative of face. Everyware should not "unnecessarily embarrass, humiliate or shame their users." Nor should it completely dissolve the boundaries of privacy that people expect.
  4. Be conservative of time. Don't "introduce undue complications into ordinary operations." Having physical equivalents of Clippy the Office Assistant would be a pain.
  5. Be deniable. Everyware "must offer users the ability to opt out, always and at any point." If ubicomp systems offer some functionality and benefit, opting out should just turn those off. (How do you opt out of being photographed by surveillance cameras?)

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May 23, 2006

Larry Smarr on the past and future of telepresence

At tonight's Technology Horizons conference, Larry Smarr gave a terrific talk on the history and future of telepresence-- i.e., systems that "eliminate distance between individuals who want to interact with other people and with other computers." I'm a bit fuzzy-- it was a long day, and tomorrow will be even longer-- but a few notes.

Telepresence has a long history in the laboratory and story. The first AT&T PicturePhone appeared forty years ago. Even as that system bombed, science fiction explored what a world in which telepresence really worked would be like: for example, the bridge of the USS Enterprise (with its giant screen that can alternately be a portal to the outside, a communications screen, or a data display) still resonates with some researchers.

Smarr argues that we're now at the point where we can seriously contemplate creating systems that, under certain conditions, are indistinguishable from reality.

The two most important developments, as I heard them, are

  1. The world has an awful lot of fiber optic cable, and we know how to push an amazing amount of information through it; and
  2. We have displays that can push as much detail as humans can handle. The input rate to the human eye-brain system (which takes up about 25% of your brain) is roughly 1 Gbps. We're crossing that threshold now, meaning that the foundational capability to do telepresence is here.

What'll this mean? To me, Smarr's most compelling line was that Thomas Friedman argued that relatively slow technologies had made the world flat. In 2015, Smarr argues, a world in which telepresence work won't be flat; it'll be a single point.

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May 18, 2006

3D models from Second Life

Gizmodo reports on a new service that lets you create models of objects you create in Second Life:

Those amongst you who spend all your waking time on Second Life: rejoice! Simon Spartalian and Mike Beradino of Recursive Instruments are launching a milling service for SL users on June 1, so you can have actual physical representations of your avatar, builds or favorite SL objects made out of anything from foam to wax to stainless steel, up to 9”x5”x5”.

As 3pointd writes,

Part of the goal of the project is to bridge the virtual and the real “by developing a cultural authority in the virtual that till now has been reserved for the physical,” Spartialian says. The service will allow residents to create physical objects that can take on personal importance or perhaps even come to have financial weight around the edges of SL’s in-world markets.

The Recursive Instruments blog has lots of geeky goodness.

[hat tip to Jason]

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May 08, 2006

phone shui

060507_fsfone

Jason Li at Virtual China writes: Samsung Motorola has recently put forth a patent for the Feng Shui Phone, which, according to Unwired View, does the following (and I quote):

  • Three-dimensional Hall-effect sensor for measuring the strength of electromagnetic fields and to form a compass to determine the geographic direction in which the main wall of the house faces.
  • Digital camera to determine color saturation, order and balance of the surroundings.
  • GPS receiver to determine geographic location of the phone.
  • The coordinates are then sent to the GIS databse through wireless network to to get the information about the surroundings of the location, e.g. the distance from the undesirable sites such as major airports, landfills, and factories.
  • Cellphone microphone is used to measure noise level of the location.
  • AM/FM radio to measure the AM and FM transmission strength and the distance form nearest AM/FM towers.
  • The table with the chi values of each parameter is stored in phones memory and is used for calculation of chi  values of different parameters.

Via PostShow; info from Unwired View

May 02, 2006

Entropia comes to your ATM

We Make Money Not Art reports that a massive multiplayer online game has taken the next step in translating virtual currency into real money:

A card that gamers can use at cash machines around the world to convert virtual dollars into real currency has been launched.

The card is offered by the developers of Project Entropia.... The Entropia economy works by allowing gamers to exchange real currency for Project Entropia Dollars (PEDs) and back again into real money. Gamers can earn cash by accumulating PEDs via the acquisition of goods, buildings and land.

The new cash card allows people to access their virtually acquired PEDs and convert them into real world money at any cash machine in the world. The card, issued by MindArk, is associated with the players Entropia Universe account and has all of the features of a real world bank account: players can transfer, withdraw, deposit and even view account balances using the system.

It'll be interesting to see how well it works.

Update, 18 May 2006. Apparently, MindArk went after Dan Hunter after he criticized the card.

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April 28, 2006

Sim City, aka Cad Land

One of the largest future market opportunities for very low-cost 3D printers is children. They love to create objects, and they, their parents, and their schools will buy them in large quantities. Consider the past. Many of us grew up playing with Tinkertoys, Creepy Crawlers, Incredible Eatables, Play Dough, Lincoln Logs, Erector Sets, and Lego bricks. All of them are about creating three-dimensional objects.

Today's kids are producing 3D objects on computers. Consider SIMS (a.k.a., SimCity), the most popular computer game in the world. The buildings, furnishings, and surroundings are fully described as 3D models.

(Terry Wohlers)

It had never occurred to me to think of massive multiplayer game spaces as breeding-grounds for design and engineering skill; but maybe 20 years from now there'll be a generation of kids for whom virtual world-building and rapid prototyping are as natural a combination as word processing and printing were for mine-- or rather, the cohort that came about 3 years after me.

More on this at End of Cyberspace.

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April 27, 2006

Quote of the day

From bitsandspaces:

Architecture in 2010 will inevitably fall into three classes: physical, virtual, and hybrid 'bits and bricks' architecture.

Pure physical architecture will become rare. Examples could include the most extreme of sustainable buildings, architecture in developing countries, or buildings that for cultural reasons renounce the integration of computer-driven technology. Pure physical buildings can also be the outcome of very natural reactions to specific conditions. The traditional building technologies that developed over centuries in response to the unique needs and circumstances of a certain region are one example.

Virtual architecture will be an alternative in many respects to the excessive production of physical architecture. It will put an end to the non-sustainable expansion of area used per person, which has more than doubled in industrialized countries since the middle of the last century. With improved virtual reality environments and computers, whose performance needs to increase by a factor of one thousand, realistic virtual surroundings will be the natural working environments for most people in information societies.

However, 'bits and bricks' architecture will ultimately predominate -- most buildings will have thousands of sensors, processors, and software integrated in their structure. They will be monitored, controlled and protected by computers and communicate with inhabitants and other buildings. Their aim will be to optimize the use of resources and the comfort of the environment they are providing through active and reactive behavior.

Personally, I think building in developing countries hardly constitutes something "rare," though much of it happens without direction from professional architects, and I'm skeptical about the VR argument, but the notion of a "bits and bricks" architecture is intriguing.

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March 28, 2006

UK pipes to be mapped in 3D

Londonpipes

a BBC article describes a plan to map out digitally underground pipes and electrical systems in UK cities, which eventually would be available to workers with some kind of mobile device:

The maze of pipes and cables that snake beneath the UK's streets are to be mapped in a £2.2m pilot project. An intimate knowledge of this tubular underworld is expected to help reduce the number of holes that need to be dug by utilities, and cut traffic jams. Nottingham and Leeds researchers will trial new 3D mapping technologies at half a dozen UK locations.
...
"When utilities and highways authorities are digging in the street, they often find things they didn't expect, or don't find the things they were looking for," explained Mike Farrimond, director of UK Water Industry Research Ltd, which is managing the mapping project. "If we had detailed 3D maps of what was down there, we'd be much more efficient at finding and fixing leaks, and connecting people to services."

(via SmartMobs)

March 24, 2006

Digital graffiti

Adam Green describes "Graffiti for Gen W:"

Wiffiti (shown in this picture) is a cell phone graffiti board that can be placed in bars, airports, or any public place. You can also view Wiffiti boards over the web. Messages are posted by text messaging to a specific number for each board, and appear in random overlapping patterns reminiscent of a tag cloud. The method of posting and the visual presentation is the essence of cool, and captures the lifestyle of Gen W better than any product I've seen so far.

Wiffiti boards also have a live Web feed: here's one from the Someday Cafe, in Davis Square, Somerville. (A marriage proposal made and accepted on another board.) This is cool, but there's more to it than that, according to the Wiffiti blog:

The screenshots are updated every minute right now - we might change the timing as we expand the network.

This feature is key to Wiffiti. It enables people on line to see what people are messaging at locations. Add to that the vision of thousands of screens to get a snapshot of what is being communicated on the street at any time. Then imagine a timelapse version where you can surf Google maps, click on a Wiffiti screen, see what people are saying now, an hour ago, a day ago a week ago…

Our technology is essentiually a closed loop between the web, the location and the user's phone.

Wiffiti is not like those screens you see at rock concerts that are used for one night to post text messages or names and are just used to be cool. By having a closed loop between the web, the location and the user, we have the opportunity to create a unique on-line/off-line experience that we believe will dramatically impact the way people communicate in locations.

We'd imagined such things in scenarios at the Institute; another example of the future jumping the shark on us.

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March 09, 2006

Wifi wine glasses, medical monitoring, and sociability of aging in place

The New Scientist has an article about a research project that turns drinking glasses into communication devices:

Long-distance lovers can still drink together

Could glowing, Wi-Fi wine glasses let people in long-distance relationships feel more in touch with their other half?... [MIT Media Lab researchers] Jackie Lee and Hyemin Chung... have incorporated a variety of coloured LEDs, liquid sensors and wireless (GPRS or Wi-Fi) links into a pair of glass tumblers....

When either person picks up a glass, red LEDs on their partner's glass glow gently. And when either puts the glass to their lips, sensors make white LEDs on the rim of the other glass glow brightly, so you can tell when your other half takes a sip. Following tests in separate labs, Lee says the wireless glasses really do "help people feel as if they are sharing a drinking experience together".

The technology could also be used to check that hospital patients or elderly people are drinking enough water, Lee says.

There are a couple interesting things here. First, it draws on real-world social activity: it doesn't require users to learn (or learn how to interpret) some new behavior, but piggybacks on very familiar ones. As the article notes, "communal drinking is an important social interaction that helps bind friendships and relationships." This sort of social mimicry has long been part of GUI design-- desktops and trash cans jumped from the real world to computer screens more than twenty years ago-- but we can now start to think about getting rid of the middleman: eliminating the intermediate step of creating visual metaphors, and putting the electronics and interactivity directly in things.

The second thing is the last paragraph: that this system has medical monitoring or aging in place applications. Our work suggests that aging in place could be the first major market for smart home and smart devices: elders who want to continue to live independently in their own homes will be the early adopters for these systems. This is significant market for two reasons: first, there's lots of evidence that retiring Boomers will be willing to spend money to stay healthy and maintain their independence, so potentially it's a lucrative market; and second, the emotional and psychological value of these systems will be far greater in this market than elsewhere. Technology that lets your refrigerator talk to your local grocer is nice; but it doesn't hold a candle technology that lets your 80 year-old mother live safely in the same house she's been in for the last thirty years.

There's a deeper connection between these two things. Ten years ago, as I understand it, the future of in-home elder care would have focused on automation: creating robot nurses, or other systems that do things for you. Today, the focus is more on systems that enable and encourage good behavior, and aim to keep elderly people active and connected to others. The first person who notices that you've been sleeping a lot more, and eating very little, shouldn't necessarily be your doctor; it should be a sibling, or your son or daughter. More and more, these systems become tools for both gathering information about user patterns-- making sure someone's drinking enough-- and communication channels linking elders with friends and family.

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February 23, 2006

Cafes, the new garages?

Jackson West writes about the growing importance of cafes in the Bay Area as workspaces:

Forget Palo Alto garages-- San Francisco coffee shops are where to get your
startup off the ground. Internet cafes are emerging as an important place to get work done, hold meetings and network. Since writers, designers, developers and anyone else who can work from their laptop are going to show up, you can even recruit talent, publicize your project and even demo your product for potential users and investors.

I think this won't come as news to many, but the notion that cafes can legitimately be thought of as business places (and not just to sell coffee, but to conduct a wide variety of businesses) has a lovely early modern quality about it.

At the same time, it reinforces a point that many smart writers about the relationship between the Internet and physical places have made: Web access (and especially wireless access) doesn't make place irrelevant, it just changes the criteria people use for deciding which places they're going to work in. In an interview we conducted a couple months ago, MIT professor William Mitchell explained how unwiring Internet access and other facilities was changing both the ways users think about workspace, and the opportunities architects have to design interesting spaces:

In architecture, in making the layout of a building, adjacency is a scarce resource. You can never satisfy all of the adjacency requirements that exist. Everybody would like to be next to the coffee machine and simultaneously next to the best view and simultaneously next to the people they work with. That's impossible.

When you introduce wireless connectivity, though, you eliminate a bunch of requirements for adjacency. You no longer have to be adjacent to a network jack in order to have connectivity, or adjacent to paper files in order to do your work. You can take them, sit down anywhere, and work.

What happens then is that adjacency demands that had previously been latent and unsatisfiable have now become satisfiable, so they take over, and reclustering begins to emerge.... If there's been a kind of latent demand for clustering, socializing, serendipity, getting together, all of that kind of stuff, if you loosen up the old adjacency constraints people are going to satisfy those demands. If people are working in loud environments and they'd really like to be working in the garden or in the sunshine or something, then that's what's going to happen.

This is something that will only become more pronounced as time goes on:

I think we are seeing a very clear movement towards much more flexible and nomadic occupation of space -- of architectural space, of urban space.... [Furthermore,] as digital technology becomes really good -- becomes really small, really reliable, really capable, and really ubiquitous -- it can disappear... [I]t becomes less and less necessary to build architectural environments around specialized technical requirements. If you've got better control systems you can have operable windows and natural light. Do you remember old-fashioned computer labs that used to be darkened spaces because the screens were so dim? Well, you don't need that anymore because screens are bright -- they just work better. Similarly, it used to be that classrooms were darkened because the audiovisual equipment meant you had to darken the space. Well, now we can put natural light into classrooms because, again, the display technology is powerful enough.

The interesting paradox is the more high-tech a space really is, the less high-tech it looks. And you can go back to very basic human things like light and air and view with operable windows and sociability. So you start to go back to being able to build the architecture around the human beings rather than the technical systems. And it's the opposite of what everybody thinks, what most people think, and it's a tremendously exciting thing for architects.

Likewise, the shift from garages to cafes reflects not a sense that you can completely do away with offices or meeting-spaces, but a shift in preference away from spaces that are privately owned and isolated, to ones that are more public, that provide services, and offer the potential for fruitful random encounters and social interactions.

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February 08, 2006

Mobile paradise

The latest example of cities turning themselves into experimental spaces for new technology applications:

Korea Plans to Build "Mobile Paradise"
South Korea plans to construct a "mobile paradise," a special district next year, where people will be able to enjoy a seamless service from the world's latest wireless technologies.

The Ministry of Information and Communication (MIC) Wednesday revealed the grandiose scheme, dubbed the M1 (Mobile No. 1) project, as part of its annual business plan.

"All existing and burgeoning mobile technologies in this planet will be used in the special district, which will be designated later," MIC assistant minister Suk Ho-ick said.

"The special district is kind of a free technology zone that will create a new mobile environment. It will play the role of test-bed for up-and-coming wireless platforms," Suk added.

Make sure to check out the "Mobile Garden of Eden" graphic in the article.

[props to Anthony]

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February 06, 2006

End of cyberspace terms

I've now posted to the End of Cyberspace blog all the suggestions David Pescovitz and I got for our Wired "'Cyberspace' is Dead" article. They range from John Seely Brown's philosophically-informed Infomated World, to Andy Clark's tongue-in-cheek Interactatron (shades of Woody Allen's Sleeper), to David Sifry's contention that cyberspace is a fine term and won't disappear.

Looking over them, what's interesting is that they (and the suggestions that have come in from readers) fall into roughly three categories. Some look for a new term to describe the post-PC, post-cyberspace world. Some argue that the word "cyberspace" will either evolve in its meaning, or is already broad enough to cover a variety of international models. Some contend that in the future, computing will be so commonplace we won't have a word for it.

At the same time, all of them agree with the premise that the world of devices, communications, and human-computer interaction will be significantly different from the present.

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December 14, 2005

Virtual guitar, real game

Recently we noted the Virtual Air Guitar project, and the philosophical contradictions therein (namely, creating a virtual version of what's already a virtual activity). Gizmodo editor Joel Johnson writes in Slate about the new Guitar Hero Playstation game, the growing popularity of new kinds of game controllers, and its implications for the boundaries between games and reality.

First, Guitar Hero. It's a "game," inasmuch as you play it on a Playstation. But basically, what you do is, well, play guitar:

Strap on your Guitar Hero SG controller, plug-in, and CRANK IT UP. Guitar Hero™ creates all the sensations of being a rock star, as you rock out to 30 of the greatest rock anthems of all time and more.

Soundtrack includes songs as made famous by such legendary artists as the Red Hot Chili Peppers, David Bowie, Boston, Sum 41, Ozzy Osbourne, Audioslave, White Zombie, Franz Ferdinand, and The Ramones. So kiss that air guitar goodbye and get ready to rock.

(Interesting mix of generations there: I'd guess the universe of players who'd listen to both Boston and Sum 41 is pretty small.)

Why's this matter? Game-specific controllers have, with very few exceptions, been the kiss of death for video games. But that may change, Johnson argues:

With its upcoming Revolution console... Nintendo will ship its next-generation box with a remote-control-shaped wand that tracks motion on three axes....

Nintendo has figured out that gamers don't want to pay an extra $20 with each game just to have a unique controller. That's why the Revolution wand has a tiny port on the bottom into which you can plug other control mechanisms. Need a guitar? All a manufacturer has to do is build a cheap, plastic shell with a few buttons. And all you'll have to do is slide the Revolution controller inside and go. With the promise that every single Revolution console will have the wand to build off of, developers will surely take more design risks.

Golf clubs and baseball bats seem likely. We'll almost certainly see swords. Even baby dolls could be rigged to accept the Revolution controller as part of a family simulation, à la the Sims. If the Revolution makes the price of peripherals negligible, we may be entering a new stage of gaming: the virtual reality era. Instead of trying to force our way into worlds with awkward headsets and body suits, we'll be doing the next best thing: taking a little bit of the game out of the virtual world and putting it into our own two hands.

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November 02, 2005

Quote of the day

"Computing reunites the world of matter with the world of things that matter." --Brian Cantwell Smith, via Epistemographer

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October 15, 2005

Quote of the day: Karl Schroeder, "Cyberspace, R.I.P."

From Karl Schroeder, "Cyberspace, R.I.P.":

It's this overlay of the virtual over the real that makes the cyberspace metaphor obsolete. Cyberspace, after all, is conceived as something like the astral plane--a digital reality that exists "elsewhere." But it's precisely this "elsewhere" that's being eroded by applications like Davison and Reid's augmented reality system. Increasingly, the digital world is being married to the real world, with surprising results.

My personal theory is this: when the only way to use a computer was to sit still and look through a little window (the screen) into a virtual space, the cyberspace metaphor worked best for us. But with cell phones, PDAs and geographical applications such as store-finders and the proposed "taxi" key for cell phones (which simply summons the nearest cab when you press it), we're no longer staring through a window into cyberspace. The window's been broken, and the cyber world has spilled out into our own space.

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September 26, 2005

Search engines in the real world

A brief article on using RFID to track items, with quotes from Paul Saffo and myself.

One point I made in the interview that didn't make it into the article: I think that for a lot of applications, reprogrammable RFID tags will become a must. I'm just paranoid enough of the scenario of thieves using RFID readers to identify who's got the iPod, or the real Rolex versus the fake, to be wary of having factory-issued tags on everything. If, on the other hand, I could rewrite them with my own personal serial numbers that mean nothing to anyone else, they'd become a lot more useful, and I'd be more comfortable using them.

Whether that entirely negates any post-purchase value retailers and manufacturers would gain from RFID tags remains to be seen. But if I have to choose between creating value for myself and creating value for a store, there's really no contest.

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September 02, 2005

An Internet of Things, or an Internet of Verbs?

I've been a big fan of Kevin Ashton's notion of "an Internet of Things;" I think it's one of those happy phrases that is compact but deeply meaningful. There aren't many moments when techno-punditry clarifies instead of muddling our understand, much less achieve a kind of poetic elegance; but for me, the Internet of Things does it.

I think that the core insight of the term-- that lots of things that currently aren't linked to the Internet, and capable of sharing information with each other, will become networked and interactive in the future-- is right on. If there's a technological inevitability, this is it.

I've recently been obsessing about the metaphor of "cyberspace," why it's held such potency, what intellectual avenues it has opened and closed, and whether it's going to survive. At Monday's FutureCommons event, I led a little discussion on the end of cyberspace, at which Ross Mayfield pointed out something very revealing:

NetGens think of the computer as a door, not a box. When they are on, they have 5-7 IM windows open and multiple tabs into different communities. Each community provides a way of being, to express facets of their identity while engaging in an activity. Most activities are centered around objects to spin stories and hold conversations. They don't go to places, it's more likely they augment plazes in the real world. With increasing mobility they tap groups for what they need to get done no matter where they are and make where they are matter. They Google, Flickr, Blog, contribute to Wikipedia, Socialtext it, Meetup, post, subscribe, feed, annotate and above all share. In other words, the web is increasingly less about places and other nouns, but verbs.

This got me thinking. There are any number of terms people have coined recently for the convergence of-- or the new kind of world created by-- mobile technologies, ubiquitous connectivity, social software, etc. etc.. Wade Roush talks about continuous computing; Paul Dourish talks about social navigation; you also see the terms sociable computing, pervasive computing, etc. etc. No surprise that a thousand rhetorical flowers are blooming, given the newness and amorphousness of the phenomenon they're trying to describe; also no surprise that many others follow Mark Weiser, who coined the terms ubiquitous computing and calm computing, in putting together combinations of "something" + "computing."

Here, I think, is a small thing that points to something very big.

For the last twenty or so years, our language for describing the Internet has been rich in spatial metaphors-- there was cyberspace, the Information Superhighway, what have you-- but pretty poor when it came to describing user interaction. How many millions of times did we read that something was "just a mouse click a