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  • IFTF's Future Now is a group weblog, founded by Institute research director Alex Soojung-Kim Pang in September 2003. Its contributors include IFTF researchers interested in emerging technologies, the future of Asia, and the social and economic impacts on new technologies; IFTF corporate affiliates; academic partners; and members of the Innovation Lab, a Danish futures group with offices in Aarhus and Copenhagen. A complete list of contributors is available here.

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30 posts from March 2008

March 31, 2008

Was the subpoena sent by txt message, too?

Earlier this year we noted a proposal by the NYPD to require that environmental monitoring devices used in New York City be registered by the police. Now the New York Times reports that lawyers representing the NYPD are asking for records from the TXTmob service, which was used by protesters at the 2004 Republication National Convention:

When delegates to the Republican National Convention assembled in New York in August 2004, the streets and sidewalks near Union Square and Madison Square Garden filled with demonstrators. Police officers in helmets formed barriers by stretching orange netting across intersections. Hordes of bicyclists participated in rolling protests through nighttime streets, and helicopters hovered overhead.

These tableaus and others were described as they happened in text messages that spread from mobile phone to mobile phone in New York City and beyond. The people sending and receiving the messages were using technology, developed by an anonymous group of artists and activists called the Institute for Applied Autonomy, that allowed users to form networks and transmit messages to hundreds or thousands of telephones.

Although the service, called TXTmob, was widely used by demonstrators, reporters and possibly even police officers, little was known about its inventors. Last month, however, the New York City Law Department issued a subpoena to Tad Hirsch, a doctoral candidate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who wrote the code that created TXTmob.

Lawyers representing the city in lawsuits filed by hundreds of people arrested during the convention asked Mr. Hirsch to hand over voluminous records revealing the content of messages exchanged on his service and identifying people who sent and received messages.

[h/t to Jess]

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Pearl River Downturn

China's economic boom has often been compared to the West's industrialization, only running in fast-foward. IT looks as if the decline of Western industrial regions may be playing out in the China on the same accelerated time frame. BusinessWeek Asia is reporting on "China's Factory Blues" this week on how a perfect storm of recent developments - from the decline in the US housing market to soaring commodity prices and new labor regulations - is shuttering factories in the Peal River Delta at an alarming rate.

The forecasts are pretty alarming in a country grown addicted to vigorous growth. "Comprehensive statistics on shutdowns are hard to come by. But the Federation of Hong Kong Industries predicts that 10% of an estimated 60,000 to 70,000 Hong Kong-run factories in the Pearl River Delta will close this year. In the past 12 months, 150 factories making shoes or supplying shoemakers have closed in Dongguan, says the Asia Footwear Assn. More plants will disappear as demand slows: UBS (UBS) analyst Jonathan Anderson expects overall export growth of just 5% or less for China this year."

That would be a problem in any economy. But in a place like southern China, where you are already dealing with a huge population of young, socially isolated migrant workers (with, I suspect a huge male-female imbalance) the situation could become combustible much sooner than anyone suspects. Or, it will just mean a lot of suffering. Either way, it's going to be a new set of challenges for modern China.

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March 29, 2008

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March 28, 2008

Growth of homeland security studies

An article in (of all places) Slate describes the growth of academic programs in the U.S. dealing with homeland security and emergency management.

The traditionally slow-moving education industry is churning out a slew of students with specialties in "mass catastrophe" and "international disaster." More than 200 colleges have created homeland-security degree and certificate programs since 9/11, and another 144 have added emergency management with a terrorism bent....

DHS has doled out more than $300 million since 9/11 to eight prestigious U.S. universities to open "centers of excellence" devoted to narrow topics like "the psyche of terrorists" or "microbial risk analysis." Though the funding is a pittance in federal-budget terms, the investment is a notable deposit into higher-education coffers and a forceful message to colleges: Build these degree programs and students will register.

Universities, which recognize a good business venture and an admirable mission, have spent millions of dollars trying to enhance their offerings with electives on cybersecurity and agricultural terrorism. Thousands of military and law-enforcement experts have also enrolled in certificate programs to expand their expertise.

Educators say terrorist training camps probably have rigorous curricula with hefty reading lists and hard-grading teachers. America could use an army of tech-savvy terror experts who have the smarts to thwart the next Chernobyl or to whip out an orderly evacuation plan when Katrina's sister arrives. It's fitting that the generation of American students that grew up with violent video games are the ones outsmarting the real villains.

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March 26, 2008

ZuiPrezi

My friends at Kitchen Budapest have released a sandbox / alpha / play with it at your own risk version of ZuiPrezi, their non-linear zooming mapping/presentation tool.

I won't go into it in detail (just yet anyway), but while it's been designed to make presentations more interesting, I think it has the potential to have a fantastic impact on the kinds of collaborative mapping exercises that futurists do a lot of.

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March 25, 2008

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March 24, 2008

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March 23, 2008

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March 22, 2008

New study on Chinese-EU energy cooperation

SciDevNet reports on a new study proposing cooperation between the EU and China on alternative energy research and development:

China and the European Union (EU) can significantly advance low-carbon technologies if they cooperate closely on technological development and market access, according to a new report.

'Interdependencies on Energy and Climate Security for China and Europe', outlines common challenges faced by the China and the EU in dealing with the impact of climate change on energy security — despite differences in their economic development.

The report was presented in Beijing last month (28 February). Contributors include UK think tank Chatham House and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).

In order to meet its fast-growing energy demands, China will need to add power generation capacity of 1260 gigawatts by 2030. And despite stable economic development, the countries of the EU will need to generate 862 gigawatts of additional energy by 2030 to replace outdated generation facilities.

If conventional technologies are used, both China and the EU will be locked in a high-carbon development model, the report warns.

But if they work together, the EU and China — which together account for 30 per cent of the world's energy consumption — could create unprecedented opportunities for global transition to low-carbon energy generation, says the report.

China's huge energy demands, low-cost manufacturing, and cheap local technological talent offer a shortcut for the production of clean energy technologies such as wind, solar and clean coal.

China has already produced 80 per cent of the world's energy-saving lamps — many of which are based on technology created in the EU.

The report recommends that EU research bodies establish research and development centres in China and increase the involvement of Chinese expertise in the development of clean energy technology.

It also suggests that the EU builds 'low-carbon economic zones' in China and establishes a joint technology platform to improve energy efficiency in the building sector.

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March 20, 2008

FCC Rules for Telcos Against Landlords

It's tough to say what the impact of a decision like this is for the US market, where there are already so many obstacles to making money on the last mile.

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Communications Commission unanimously approved a rule on Wednesday banning exclusive telephone service agreements in apartment buildings, giving tenants their pick of providers.

The five-member commission said in a release that exclusive contracts between carriers and apartment-building owners “hurt consumers and harm competition, with little evidence of countervailing benefits.” It noted that the deals have also blocked residents from getting bundled voice, video and high-speed Internet service packages.

(Full article)

When I looked at the South Korean broadband miracle in 2004, it was widely understood that cozy partnerships between large housing manufacturers and so-called BLECs - building local exchange carriers - was one of the important economic drivers for rapid broadband diffusion. In an environment dominated by incumbents, startup broadband carriers needed the revenue predictability of long-term exclusive deals with more or less captive customers. It is true that housing itself is more of a commodity in places like Seoul, and thus developers had powerful incentives to bundle the broadband or keep prices competitive. Why would you make a deal that undermines your ability to sell a $1 million apartment by not controlling a $40/month cost?

The telcos now have the legal authority to bust open any building they like, which presumably means more competition for consumers. But the one thing the US can't afford is any measure that slows down the pace of residential broadband deployment. Taking away the ability of landlords to make exclusive deals that bring alternative broadband providers into their buildings, and protect them from the aggressive tactics of incumbent telcos, I think is a step in the wrong direction.

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March 19, 2008

Amateurs versus professionals

A pretty good overview of the debate over amateur versus professional media creation at Knowledge@Wharton.

Of course, in most cases the answer will be "both." The real debate will be over the details.

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Accounting for the future

Some of the most interesting things I've read in the last year are books like Daniel Gilbert's Stumbling on Happiness and Eliezer Yudkowsky's work on cognitive biases and risks [pdf], which take a close look at the psychological limitations of thinking about the future. Of course, the claim that futurists-- or OR people, accountants, etc.-- make is that the tools they use can correct for these biases.

But a Wharton accounting professor's recent studies suggest that even the apparently most rigorous quantitative tools can contribute to our holding faulty views of the future:

Accounting techniques like budgeting, sales projections and financial reporting are supposed to help prevent business failures by giving managers realistic plans to guide their actions and feedback on their progress. In other words, they are supposed to leaven entrepreneurial optimism with green-eye-shaded realism.

At least that's the theory. But when Gavin Cassar, a Wharton accounting professor, tested this idea, he found something troubling: Some accounting tools not only fail to help businesspeople, but may actually lead them astray. In one of his recent studies, forthcoming in Contemporary Accounting Research, Cassar showed that budgeting didn't help a group of Australian firms accurately forecast their revenues. In a second paper,he found that the preparation of financial projections added to aspiring entrepreneurs' optimism, leading them to overestimate their subsequent levels of sales and employment.

"It's been shown in many studies that people are overly optimistic," Cassar says. "What's interesting here is that, when you use the accounting tools, the optimism is even more extreme. This suggests that using the tools, which a lot of academics and government agencies say is good practice, can lead to even bigger mistakes."

The second of the two studies is more interesting here, because it asks whether doing things like writing business plans and creating sales projections make entrepreneurs more realistic or less realistic in their views of the future. He draws on the work of behavioral economists, who

have documented a number of mental shortcuts and biases that can lead people to depart from the logic that traditional economic orthodoxy would suggest. One of the concepts, for example, introduced by Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman and co-author Dan Lovallo, is that "an inside view" can distort decision making. A person who adopts an inside view becomes so focused on formulating his particular plan that he neglects to consider critical outside information, like other people's experiences in pursuing the same goal.

"Individuals form an inside view forecast by focusing on the specifics of the case, the details of the plan that exists and obstacles to its completion, and by constructing scenarios of future progress," Cassar summarizes. "In contrast, an outside view is statistical and comparative in nature and does not involve any attempt to divine the future at any level of detail."

Doing financial projections for an entrepreneurial venture, Cassar realized, entails the creation of an inside view. The entrepreneur builds a storyline of success in her head and then plays it out in her spreadsheet, showing rising sales year after year. "Humans are good at storytelling and building causal links," Cassar notes. "They think, 'I'll go to college, I'll write a business plan, I'll raise some capital and then I'll go public or sell out to a big competitor.' There's a probability attached to each of these steps, but they don't think about that. They put all the links together and evaluate the likelihood of success at a much higher probability than is realistic."...

People who did financial projections were the most likely to overestimate the future sales of their ventures. In other words, "the same management activities that entrepreneurs rely on to cope with uncertainty appear to be causing individuals to hold optimistic expectations," he writes. Interestingly, writing a business plan also led to optimism about the likelihood of success, but it didn't lead to overly optimistic expectations because it's also "positively associated with the likelihood that the nascent activity will become an operating venture," he adds. Put another way, people who write plans are more likely to start companies, thereby justifying their optimism.

The details are worth looking at, but the basic moral is clear: what seem like rigorous tools can lead people astray, through a combination of their apparent rigor, and the ways their use generates inside views. The interaction of users and tools co-produces what looks like objective data, and a particular way of looking at that data that's likely to exaggerate the odds of success and downplay the odds of failure.

Now for entrepreneurs you can argue that this is a good thing, and that entrepreneurs aren't successful if they dwell too much on the risks of failure. Starting your own company is an exercise is controlled, disciplined self-delusion. But how much do these kinds of biases-- ones generated by a combination of apparently good information and processes that generate inside views-- affect the work of futurists? I wonder.

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Quote of the day

The study of business is afflicted by confusion between the results of a survey of what people think about the world and a survey of what the world is really like. At another recent meeting I heard a platform speaker announce that 40 per cent of books would be electronically published by 2020. A pesky academic asked exactly what this number meant and what evidence it was based on. The speaker assured the audience that the number had been obtained in a survey by eminent consultants of the opinions of the industry’s thought leaders.

I imagine most of the thought leaders had no more idea than anyone else what the question implied, or what the answer was, and did not devote more than the briefest consideration to their response, so I am not surprised that the median answer was close to a half. If you want to know the future of publishing, you will learn more by peering into a crystal ball. It will at least give you time to think. (John Kay, "Research that aids publicists but not the public")

March 18, 2008

RIP Arthur Clarke

I doubt there's anyone who thinks seriously about the future who hasn't read Arthur C Clarke-- probably a lot of Clarke, as he wrote about a hundred books and an uncountable number of essays. Now the Guardian reports,

Arthur C Clarke, the pioneering science fiction author and technological visionary best known for the novel and film 2001: A Space Odyssey, has died at his home in Sri Lanka, aged 90.

Clarke, who wrote more than 100 books in a career spanning seven decades, died of heart failure linked to the post-polio syndrome that had kept him wheelchair-bound for years.

His forecasts often earned him derision from peers and social commentators.

But although his dreams of intergalactic space travel and colonisation of nearby planets were never realised in his lifetime, Clarke's predictions of a host of technological breakthroughs were uncannily accurate.

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March 17, 2008

The Future of Presence, Continued

John Thackara, who invited me to give a talk on telepresence and travel at the Design of the Times festival in Newcastle last October (which I ironically travelled on a jet plane to give), is pushing the discussion of telepresence and travel further. He has published the text of a recent talk at the Pixelcache festival in Finland:

Traveling without moving has become an economic and environmental imperative. Matter is more expensive than energy; energy is more expensive than information; it is cheaper to move information, than people or things. So what is to stop us moving less, and and tele-communicating more? (Full text: From MySpace to fakespace: How close are we to travel without moving?)

My own view of the subject is actually a lot more pessimistic. As I wrote here last year, if history is any lesson, the more telepresence we get, the more mobility we're going to need. If telecommunications is good at one thing, its maintaining long-distance relationships that generate demand for long-distance travel:

Over the last 50 years we've seen a simultaneous rise in both business telecommunications and travel. In fact, I don't think we appreciate that the second half of the 20th century was about two intertwined revolutions, the telecom revolution we hear about all the time but also a quieter mobility explosion, whose ripples are just now being felt in the big developing economies.

At many times people on one side of the debate or the other have wrongly forecast that one side of this equation would overtake the other - we would see the death of cities, the death of distance, and the end of travel. But what's important here is that these things happened because of each other, not in spite of each other. This particular kind of presence, international business presence, is facilitated by a hybrid set of infrastructure and human activities - making calls and getting on planes.

Now, today, the Internet, for all its distance-diminishing potential isn't really breaking this relationship. In fact. much of what we use our network technologies for is arranging travel. If you look in your email inbox or keep a diary of mobile phone calls - a safe bet is that 75-90 percent of the messages are about arranging travel or planning meetings. So right off from the start I want to break you of any mental habit of thinking that the Internet is going to make us stop moving.

If anything, its going to make things worse. For instance, the Internet is a fundamental part of low-cost airline business models. They are utterly dependent upon the efficiency of Internet bookings, and they are now the biggest driver of expansion in air travel from London to Lahore. For instance, on any given flight of Brazilan low-cost carrier Gol, 1 of every 3 or 4 passengers is flying for the first time ever.

John's main recommendation to designers is to "escape from our disciplinary silos". But it seems to me that it's a bit too little, too late. I've tried to start pushing the discussion further, with some more specific ideas:

The first [idea] is to rely on virtual for long-distance interactions, but for some travel. Any relationship that we try to put solely online is doomed to failure, but by pledging from the start to commit to at least one face-to-face meeting can help resist demands for more travel and meetings. If a team knows that it will get together once a year to bond, share knowledge, etc - that could eliminate anxious need for monthly or quarterly trips.

Second, Satisfy the desire of movement by more intense local mobility. People love to move and travel. By thinking about ways to increase mobility within buildings, neighborhoods, regions - we may be able to satisfy some of that urge for long-distance energy-intensive travel that can only be accomplished by air travel. This means investing in better designed workspaces, and public spaces (and blurring the lines between the two).

Finally, I think we all need to keep our eyes on lead users - the 12-25 year olds that are developing entirely new kinds of presence online. Much has been written about how social practices are changing on the social, immersive, multimedia web, but almost none of this looks at place and mobility. What kinds of new, altered and hybrid boundaries are they creating? How can we empower them to be the agents of transformation and shapers of more sustainable future forms of presence?

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HourTown: Lightweight Infrastructure for Small Business

Sometimes the future shows up sooner than you think. Or your forecasting isn't quite as long-range as you think it is. HourTown, a new Palo Alto-based startup launching in the next few weeks, is giving me that feeling.

In our research last year on the future of small business for Intuit, which was published in 3 reports available for all on the web here, we forecast that the broad diffusion of connected technologies was merging with a demographic wave of new entrepreneurs to drive strong future expansion of small business. While forecasters have long highlighted maverick freelancers, and the growing entrepreneurialism of the "creative class", we saw something far more universal.... very small businesses, what we called "personal businesses", could thrive using technology to manage resources, time and customers efficiently and in customized ways.

So when co-founder Ryan Donohue told me about HourTown, the new service he is launching, I realized we were on the right track with this forecast. Essentially, HourTown is a simple, easy-to-use customer relationship management system for people that provide personalized local services. It's Web 2.0 for the guy that cleans your pool. In addition to dead-easy scheduling and communication and hooks into Craigslist ads, it also helps you generate leads by publishing into Google Base and other search indices.

There's been so much excitement about sites like Etsy over the last six months (or say AliBaba before that) - platforms that provide small businesses the infrastructure and reach to go global. But HourTown is the first of the Web 2.0 platforms that I've seen that are looking to transform the way local, face-to-face small business economies work by providing new tools for discovery, relationship building and synchronization of highly mobile consumers and service providers.

Best of luck to the HourTown crew. FYI, I need my grass cut on Tuesday at 9:30 am.

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March 16, 2008

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March 15, 2008

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March 14, 2008

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March 06, 2008

Revolutionary IT in Cuba?

A short but interesting piece in the New York Times on IT and political activism in Cuba.

A growing underground network of young people armed with computer memory sticks, digital cameras and clandestine Internet hookups has been mounting some challenges to the Cuban government in recent months, spreading news that the official state media try to suppress....

“It passes from flash drive to flash drive,” said Ariel, 33, a computer programmer, who, like almost everyone else interviewed for this article, asked that his last name not be used for fear of political persecution. “This is going to get out of the government’s hands because the technology is moving so rapidly.”...

[T]he government’s attempts to control access are increasingly ineffective. Young people here say there is a thriving black market giving thousands of people an underground connection to the world outside the Communist country.

People who have smuggled in satellite dishes provide illegal connections to the Internet for a fee or download movies to sell on discs. Others exploit the connections to the Web of foreign businesses and state-run enterprises. Employees with the ability to connect to the Internet often sell their passwords and identification numbers for use in the middle of the night.

Hotels catering to tourists provide Internet services, and Cubans also exploit those conduits to the Web.

Even the country’s top computer science school, the University of Information Sciences, set in a campus once used by Cuba’s spy services, has become a hotbed of cyber-rebels. Students download everything from the latest American television shows to articles and videos criticizing the government, and pass them quickly around the island.

“There is a whole underground market of this stuff,” Ariel said.

This sounds similar to the story told in Annabelle Sreberny-Mohammadi's great article "Small Media for a Big Revolution," about the role that cassette tapes played in Iranian protest movements in the late 1970s.

She talks about three technologies in particular: the cassette tape, the leaflet, and foreign news services. Cassette tapes are small, easily hidden, highly portable, and relatively easy to copy with equipment ranging from the cheap to the industrial-strength and expensive; they also fit in well with a culture that had 65% illiteracy, and still favored oral over printed negotiation. Single-page xeroxed leaflets "were another form of small media utilized by the opposition." These were likewise easy to produce, copy, and publicize. Finally, Iran's intelligentsia had "had long supplemented… domestic information channels with various international media such as imported newspapers and news magazines, Persian-language broadcasting… and short-wave radio" (BBC Persia was a favorite).

The difference in that case was that new information technologies were seen as tools of the state and modernizers; much of what Sreberny-Mohammadi is interested in is how traditional institutions and centers of political discourse and information exchange-- in particular the mosque and the bazaar-- appropriated modern technologies for their own use. As she puts it,

The traditional elements with the help of perceptive advisors embarked upon an ingenious and creative adaptation of modern technologies of communication to serve their own purpose…. Current media technologies such as audio tapes and xerography allow multiple points of production and distribution so that they are almost untraceable and irrepressible, providing powerful tools of political propaganda that even the most authoritarian regime finds hard to control.

Despite the differences between the two cases, one can imagine that the problems the Iranian government of the 1970s had with tapes, leaflets, and BBC are likely to be even harder to deal with in an age of flash drives and cell phone cameras.

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March 05, 2008

Technology, perception and coffee

Slate as an article about experimenting with a new $11,000 coffeemaker, the Clover 1S, that is inspiring rave reviews among coffee fanatics. You can read the article in various ways-- a sign of the amazing ways Western civilization is decaying, perhaps-- but I see it as an interesting example of how new technical capabilities change the way we apportion our attention. Just as the invention of the telescope and microscope in the seventeenth century made it possible to study phenomena that had previously been unknowable, so do things like exceptionally precise coffeemakers encourage us to think about ordinary things like coffee in new ways.

[There are] six variables that contribute to the taste of brewed coffee—choice of bean, grind, "dose" of coffee, brewing time, temperature, and amount of water. The first three, for better or worse, are in the hands of the barista ("Call me when you get a better grinder!" [Clover rep David] Latourell half-teases the Grumpy staff)—but the Clover can precisely regulate the last three.

Adams spends several hours brewing cups of coffee with different temperatures and brewing times, and comes up with some very different results-- and, just as important, exactly the same results when he resets the machine to a previous setting.

I'm becoming a Clover addict, just as I feared. It's not the tasty coffee itself that's drawing me in—although that caffeine euphoria certainly colors my mood. It's the joy of tinkering, really delving into the possibilities of a coffee bean in a way I've never considered before....

The immediate consequence of the Clover and its precision isn't necessarily better coffee, but more attention to coffee. By creating this rigorous laboratorylike brewing environment, it encourages cafes to explore the nuances of different beans, where and how they're grown and dried and sorted and roasted....

Is owning a Clover worth $11,000? Not for the individual—don't be silly. But even a smattering of Clovers in the right hands promises to broaden the way we think about coffee. The very fact that an $11,000 coffee machine is receiving such excited media attention seems like a clear sign that we're headed toward a "third wave" of coffee, an age of terroir, aided by technology that can give different beans the different careful treatments they deserve.

[To the tune of 2Pac, Dr. Dre & Roger Troutman, "California Love (Remix)," from the album "All Eyez on Me".]

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Art as Personal Business in the City: Brooklyn's Creative Freelance Economy

Our phase one report for Intuit on the Future of Small Business forecast continued expansion number of personal businesses.

I spent the morning at the Brooklyn Public Library for a panel discussion organized by the Center for an Urban Future and the Brooklyn Economic Development Corporation. The topic was "Harnessing Brooklyn's Creative Capital: The Impact of Self-Employed Creative Professionals on the Borough's Economy". The panel consisted of an interesting range of freelance activists and organizers, including the head of the Freelancer's Union and the Brooklyn Writer's Space a local legend in the co-working scene.

According to the Center for an Urban Future, "freelance businesses has been a faster growing part of the Brooklyn economy than employer-based businesses". The BEDC reported that the number of creative self-employed persons in Brooklyn grew at five times the rate of Manhattan over the 2002-2005 period. Brooklyn now has 22,000 creative self-employed workers. More than 70% are independent artists, writers, photogrpahers, jewewly makers, designers - making Brooklyn's "creative crescent", a cluster of waterfront neighborhoods stretching from Greenpoint in the north to Red Hook in the south, the largest concentration of artists in the history of the world.

The discussion centered mostly around local issues like the lifestyle and cost-competitiveness of Brooklyn vis a vis Manhattan, but there was also raging debate around what the city could do to support freelancers. Three issues were paramount: affordable an flexible working space for various kinds of creative work, health insurance, and disability insurance.

A transcript will be available soon from the Center for an Urban Future's website.

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Therapeutic Cities

Some of you may know that my wife and I welcomed a little girl to the world last month (Stella!). Despite the fact that my mother was a nurse for 40 years - or perhaps because of it - I've never spent a lot of time around hospitals. In fact, like many of you I share an aversion to the centralization of sick people.

However, during the many down periods before and after the birth, I spent some hours wandering the campus of Mount Sinai Hospital and School of Medicine on Manhattan's Upper East Side. In addition to being a first-rate place for care (if it was good enough for Gwenyth Paltrow and her baby, its good enough for me), it's one of the nation's leading medical schools for research.

The experience - marked by moments like sharing a cafeteria table with some senior Mount Sinai surgeons and a flock of Eastern European visiting doctors eagerly soaking up the latest stent procedures - gave me a new understanding of the importance of biomedical research facilities for cites. At the Institute for the Future, my colleaugue Alex Pang and I have been looking at how science and R&D facilities are slowly but surely returning to cities (skip to page 71) after a long hiatus in the masted planned science cities and suburban science parks of the Cold War. One of my main realizations in this work was the deep linkage between teaching and research hospitals and biomedical innovation - put frankly, these places require lots of people to be patients, and subjects of clinical studies. Putting them in big cities makes a lot of sense.

Freshly inspired by the experience, I began drawing up an outline for a paper on what I'm calling "therapeutic cities". The main idea is that cities - in addition to being one of our best sustainability technologies - may be one of our best health technologies. There are many dimensions to this idea - from the benefits of walkability to the mental health of aging populations when they are integrated, not isolated.

I'll be developing this theme in future blog posts, but I wanted to post a link to a piece in The Economist that talks about the transformation of Cleveland by the Cleveland Clinic and Rochester, MN by the Mayo Clinic, to jumpstart the conversation.

Cleveland's 37,350 employees make it Ohio's second-largest private employer, after Wal-Mart. Mayo is Minnesota's biggest private employer, with a staff of more than 30,000 in Rochester and several thousand more who work for the regional health system. “One thing to note”, says the Cleveland Clinic's chief executive, Delos Cosgrove, “is that health-care jobs are good jobs.” Another thing worth noting is that neither the Cleveland Clinic nor Mayo has been touched by the national push to unionise nurses.

Read the full article

being one of our best sustainability technologies

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March 04, 2008

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