Google's Corporate Prediction Market: Families that Trade Together, Stay Together

Bo Cowgill, the head of Google's internal prediction market - which they claim is the largest corporate prediction market in existence - has released a paper detailing the company's experience over the last two-and-a-half years. Among the main conclusions:

• There is a distinct optimistic bias, especially among new hires and days when GOOG is on rise
• There are "strong correlations in trading for those who sit within a few feet of one another"
• People who share social networks also have correlated trading behavior, though its not as as pronounced as the physical proximity correlation

The physical proximity correlation is intriguing, as the report states that on average Google employees were moving an average of every 90 days. Presumably, there is some intense synergy between prediction markets and water coolers.

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