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  • IFTF's Future Now draws on research and forecasting at the Institute for the Future, a Palo Alto, CA think tank specializing in the future of technology, health, and organizational change. It began in September 2003.

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  • IFTF's Future Now is a group weblog, founded by Institute research director Alex Soojung-Kim Pang in September 2003. Its contributors include IFTF researchers interested in emerging technologies, the future of Asia, and the social and economic impacts on new technologies; IFTF corporate affiliates; academic partners; and members of the Innovation Lab, a Danish futures group with offices in Aarhus and Copenhagen. A complete list of contributors is available here.

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36 posts from December 2007

December 30, 2007

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December 29, 2007

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December 28, 2007

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The complex relationships between media

From Marc Andreesen's blog, quoting the New Yorker, July 14, 1951:

The most encouraging word we have so far had about television came from a grade-school principal we encountered the other afternoon.

"They say it's going to bring back vaudeville," he said, "but I think it's going to bring back the book."

Before television, he told us, his pupils never read; that is, they knew how to read and could do it in school, but their reading ended there. Their entertainment was predominantly pictorial and auditory -- movies, comic books, radio.

Now, the principal said, news summaries are typed out and displayed on the television screen to the accompaniment of soothing music, the opening pages of dramatized novels are shown, words are written on blackboards in quiz and panel programs, commercials are spelled out in letters made up of dancing cigarettes, and even the packages of cleansers and breakfast foods and the announcers exhibit for identification bear printed messages.

It's only a question of time, our principal felt, before the new literacy of the television audience reaches the point where whole books can be held up to the screen and all their pages slowly turned.

Anyone who watches an hour of cable news is probably exposed to more words and numbers-- in the form of headlines, crawls, stock tickers, etc.-- than their grandparents saw in a day. Of course, that's a total guess. But as I mentioned a little while ago, my son is keen to start reading more on his own so he can play more advanced video games. The bottom line is, the relationship between new media and old skills is always more complicated than we think.

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December 27, 2007

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December 24, 2007

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December 22, 2007

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December 21, 2007

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December 20, 2007

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December 19, 2007

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December 18, 2007

Check

Atul Gawande has a terrific article in last week's New Yorker on an information technology that, after several years' testing, looks like it could transform intensive care. It's mainly been used in the reduction of line infections, which Gawande explains are

so common that they are considered a routine complication. I.C.U.s put five million lines into patients each year, and national statistics show that, after ten days, four per cent of those lines become infected. Line infections occur in eighty thousand people a year in the United States, and are fatal between five and twenty-eight per cent of the time, depending on how sick one is at the start. Those who survive line infections spend on average a week longer in intensive care.

This new technology was developed a few years ago by Johns Hopkins professor Peter Pronovost. After the first trial using it in a hospital,

The results were so dramatic that they weren’t sure whether to believe them: the ten-day line-infection rate went from eleven per cent to zero. So they followed patients for fifteen more months. Only two line infections occurred during the entire period. They calculated that, in this one hospital... [it] had prevented forty-three infections and eight deaths, and saved two million dollars in costs.

For years we've heard that information technology could solve some of the most tractable problems with our health care system, and this seems to make that promise true. So what is this technology?

A checklist.

Not a gigantic database, or RFID tags in unconscious patients, or steerable needles (which boffins at UC Berkeley are now working on); but pieces of paper listing the steps you're supposed to take when doing something. You know what they are.

So why are they good-- good to the point of being able to save lots of lives and millions of dollars in an average hospital? Checklist offer

two main benefits, Pronovost observed. First, they helped with memory recall, especially with mundane matters that are easily overlooked in patients undergoing more drastic events. (When you’re worrying about what treatment to give a woman who won’t stop seizing, it’s hard to remember to make sure that the head of her bed is in the right position.) A second effect was to make explicit the minimum, expected steps in complex processes. Pronovost was surprised to discover how often even experienced personnel failed to grasp the importance of certain precautions. In a survey of I.C.U. staff taken before introducing the ventilator checklists, he found that half hadn’t realized that there was evidence strongly supporting giving ventilated patients antacid medication. Checklists established a higher standard of baseline performance.

Tools like checklists aren't just accidental media containing information; when you look at how they're used, they turn out to be aids to memory, objects that help standardize what can be chaotic practices. Under some circumstances, they're tools for diffusing practices and raising standards.

The power of checklists rests in their simplicity, particularly the simplicity of their use. Documents behave predictably. That predictability, I would argue, in turn is important for its incorporation into work practices. With a checklist, you can easily see that steps have been followed: it's a bit like how strips of paper in air traffic control centers serve as tools for tracking who has responsibility for a plane.

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December 16, 2007

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December 15, 2007

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December 14, 2007

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December 13, 2007

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December 12, 2007

Rent-A-Lab: Nanotech Space for Let

Ironically, the business of making really small things requires some really big and expensive equipment. Or at least that's the thinking behind the three-year old NSF-sponsored National Nanotechnology Infrastructure Network. Technology Review has a good run-down today on the $14-million a year program that supports 13 nanoengineering labs at universities around the country in order to make lab space available on a leasable basis to private firms, without imposing the usual intellectual property restrictions on the work.

To date, 700 companies (mostly startups) have taken advantage of the program to reduce capital outlay for basic research facilities. It seems like an interesting model, but as I learn more about private-sector companies like Alexandria Real Estate Equities (yes that is the worst home page in the history of the Internet), which are making a small fortune building biotech lab space, I have to wonder what the future of this program is. The equipment for nanotech is expensive, and sharing costs between public and private institutions makes sense, especially at the seeding phase. But when will it transition to a more market-based approach? Perhaps nanotech isn't going to benefit from the "garage science revolution" that seems to be in the works for biology.

The other thing here - is this the beginning of the end for university IP management, and the revenues it produces, or just an evolution of the model? The universities won't have any claims to the IP produced by these startups in space that they have heavily subsidized, and presumably grad students will be working on these projects (who can resist the cheap labor?). I wonder how much these schools realize they are creating a model that says "we have no intellectual stake in the research being done on our campus". It potentially relegates the university to the role of facilities manager. With more and more of the transdisciplinary learning in fast-moving fields like biotechnology and nanotechnology being done on the job, maybe Alexandria should set up a university and we can just do away with the academics all-together?

Side note: also on the nanotech newswire is a new report by the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology, that depicts 8 scenarios of:

a near-future world in which exponential general-purpose molecular manufacturing becomes a reality. The purpose is to offer plausible, logical, understandable "stories" that illustrate the challenge of contending with the implications of advanced nanotechnology. What will that future look like? What can we learn from picturing it now that might help us avoid the worst pitfalls and generate the greatest benefits?

The report is a part of the Center's ongoing task force, and co-authored by IFTF Affiliate Jamais Cascio. Press release is here and the scenarios are here.

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December 11, 2007

Human evolution is speeding up

The Guardian reports on a new study of the pace of human evolution.

Humans are evolving more quickly than at any time in history, researchers say. In the past 5,000 years, humans have evolved up to 100 times more quickly than any time since the split with the ancestors of modern chimpanzees 6m years ago, a team from the University of Wisconsin found.

The study also suggests that human races in different parts of the world are becoming more genetically distinct, although this is likely to reverse in future as populations become more mixed....

The researchers analysed data from the international haplotype map of the human genome, and analysed genetic markers in 270 people from four groups: Han Chinese, Japanese, Africa's Yoruba and northern Europeans.

They found that at least 7% of human genes have undergone recent evolution.... Some of the changes were tracked back to just 5,000 years ago, and "today they are in 30 or 40% of people because they [are] such an advantage," said Hawks.

The most interesting line in the piece, though, is this reflection on evolution and built environment:

"The widespread assumption that human evolution has slowed down because it's easier to live and we've conquered nature is absolutely not true. We didn't conquer nature, we changed it in ways that created new selection pressures on us," said anthropologist Dr John Hawks, who led the study.

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December 10, 2007

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December 08, 2007

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December 07, 2007

Finally, an inexpensive solution to the Chinese Hamster Ovary cell transportation problem

Wired reports on a impressive piece of improvisational science: while waiting for their lab's equipment to arrive, UC Merced engineering professor Michelle Khine, an expert in microfluidic systems, and her research group "designed complicated patterns in Auto CAD, printed them onto Shrinky Dinks, and then heated the plastic toys in an inexpensive oven."

As the sheets became smaller, the lines of print would bulge out. Taller and more pronounced, the miniaturized pattern served as a perfect mould for forming rounded, narrow channels in PDMS -- a clear, synthetic rubber.

In addition to making some simpler devices, Khine and her team emblazoned a Christmas tree design into a piece of PDMS and showed how it can blend different types of food coloring to make a rainbow pattern. Since microfluidic devices are sometimes used for biological research, the young professor also showed that Chinese Hamster Ovary cells can flow through through the narrow channels.

An article published in the Royal College of Chemistry's journal Lab on a Chip describes the lab's

rapid and non-photolithographic approach to microfluidic pattern generation by leveraging the inherent shrinkage properties of biaxially oriented polystyrene thermoplastic sheets [those would be the Shrinky Dinks-- ed.]. This novel approach yields channels deep enough for mammalian cell assays, with demonstrated heights up to 80 µm. Moreover, we can consistently and easily achieve rounded channels, multi-height channels, and channels as thin as 65 µm in width. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of this simple microfabrication approach by fabricating a functional gradient generator. The whole process—from device design conception to working device—can be completed within minutes....

Unlike the expensive setup and laborious processing required to make the silicon wafers, this approach only requires a laser-jet printer and a toaster oven, and can be completed within minutes. Moreover, we can achieve multi-height designs within the device, which typically requires a laborious and iterative process using standard lithographic approaches.

A few weeks ago I pointed out Attila Csordás' article on DIY biology. This is another data-point suggesting that the DIY biology world isn't close-- if you're ingenious and have the toys at hand, it's here.

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December 06, 2007

Journey finds new singer on YouTube

While some bands are lucky enough to have a reality show based on the search for their new lead singer (e.g., Rock Star: INXS), others have to do it the old-fashioned way: a painful series of auditions. But when those fail, what is a band to do? In the case of ballad superstars Journey, they found their answer in the world of new media—YouTube, to be specific.

From the mouth of guitarist Niel Schon (via Stereogum, via Blabbermouth):

I was frustrated about not having a singer, so I went on YouTube for a couple of days and just sat on it for hours. I was starting to think I was never going to find anybody. But then I found THE ZOO and I watched a bunch of different video clips that they had posted. After watching the videos over and over again, I had to walk away from the computer and let what I heard sink in because it sounded too good to be true. I thought, 'he can't be that good.' But he is that good, he's the real deal and so tremendously talented.

Good news for Journey fans who haven't had the chance to hear "Don't Stop Believin'" and "Faithfully" live yet.  Even better news for all of those rock star wannabes who flood YouTube and MySpace with videos and audio clips of their performances in hopes of being "discovered" by a Web-savvy A&R exec or a surviving superband in search of a new lead singer. 

Blended Urban Reality: What Would Jane Jacobs Think of Facebook?

In my teaching at NYU's Interactive Telecommunications Program from 2002-2004, I encouraged students looking to design interactive interventions to read the classics of American urban thinking for inspiration and caution - Kevin Lynch's The Image of the City, Christopher Alexander's A Pattern Language, and Jane Jacobs' Death and Life of Great American Cities. The idea was to get them to turn around their thinking - not to see technology as something that could dramatically transform public spaces and overturn existing ways of living, but rather as something that could be blended into a very complex urban ecosystem of places, people and objects. Alexander's A City is Not a Tree is a sort of riff on just how complex a system something as mundane as a street corner can be.

Until yesterday, I really didn't know anyone else who was thinking like this, but I had coffee with Andrew Blum, a freelance writer living in Brooklyn. As we both commiserated about the lack of dialogue between architects/urban designers and information technologists (the former tend to see themselves as involved in a grander project and abhor silicon, while the former see the world through the aspatial lens of ubiquity), Andrew pointed me to his piece in the recent homage to Jane Jacobs', Block by Block: Jane Jacobs and the Future of New York. At the end he starts to dig into what social networks like Facebook might mean as they are grounded in urban settings:

A tenet of modernist planning was that cities didn’t matter any more, that communications technology (much less the threat of nuclear war) rendered them useless and inefficient. Of course, the opposite has proved true. As technology has lowered the barriers between places, the differences between them have become accentuated. At least at a global scale, when ideas and capital flow freely, they tend to dry up in some places and pool in others—as in New York. But the influence of communication technology is beginning to have an impact at the neighborhood scale as well. Jacobs wrote that “word does not move around where public characters and sidewalk life are lacking.” Now it does. There are the people paused at the top of the subway stairs, occupying two spaces at once, one physical, one virtual. And in neighborhoods around the country—this one in particular—community online message boards and blogs are thriving, entirely in parallel with news passed stoop to stoop.

The “in parallel” part is crucial. Outside.In, a website designed to gather and organize neighborhood news, published a list of “America’s Top 10 Bloggiest Neighborhoods.” What was striking (but perhaps not surprising) is that all were living examples of the kind of places Jacobs championed: Clinton Hill in Brooklyn, Portrero Hill in San Francisco, Shaw in Washington. If the physical form of a neighborhood is conducive to community, so is its virtual form. But the other striking thing about the list was that all the neighborhoods were in a state of change—gentrifying or recently gentrified. It’s certainly demographic: a neat and obvious alignment of hipster and blogger. But it also means that the newly emerging character of these places is being forged, at least in part, online. These are incontrovertibly real-world neighborhoods, but their community is as virtual as it is physical. With each year, we get better at navigating between the two.

Facebook and MySpace have begun to show how textured online group interactions can be. It’s easy to think of social networking in terms of Hudson Street, and easy to think of Hudson Street in terms of social networking. Both are at their best when they can successfully balance the public and the private. In his book Emergence: The Connected Lives of Ants, Brains, Cities, and Software, Steven Johnson—who, not coincidentally, created Outside.In—shows the similarities between the ad hoc, bottom-up life of the Web and that of urban neighborhoods. Yet so far, the two aren’t fully feeding off of each other. Those bloggy neighborhoods excepted, we’re not fully connected, neighbor to neighbor. But we’re connected enough, I think, that the payoff is becoming visible: in a community where common ties are electronically buttressed, we may be able to reap the global environmental benefit of high-density living without sacrificing the local ties of a medium-density neighborhood. Jacobs’s legacy may be crashing up against a conflict of scales, but this could soften the blow.

Full article or buy the book

I hope that we see more great stuff from Andrew, and others like him, that will continue to push out dialogue and thinking about blended urban reality to the next level. And in the meantime, hopefully critics that don't get it like The New Yorker's Paul Goldberger will retire and move to Florida (if they can afford to live in Seaside of course).

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December 05, 2007

Moving from Stranger Anxiety to Stranger Neutrality

It was just pointed out to me that a friend's daughter (about 10 years old) is a big fan of a handheld gaming system.  In this system, the children are able to play with anonymous strangers -- but can only choose someone to play with if they have their code. And they can only get the code if they physically know the person.  Further, even if they have a great time with Anonymous Gamebuddy, they can't ever find that person again.

While clearly this is a system designed to eliminate stranger danger (parents can keep kids off computers, so they can't just know someone on AIM and get their code...), it seems to me that, along with other like-minded "pick up game" formats, it will reset the current crop of gamers to be neutral with regards to people they bump into randomly and have one-off interactions.  Maybe it will be a good game, maybe not.

Because there is no recurring interaction, there is no need for a reputation system. It's reputationless. In a way, it relies on the singularity of the objective: play a game with me, then go away.

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December 04, 2007

American students rank 17th in OECD scientific literacy survey

The Chronicle of Higher Education (sub req) reports on "an international assessment of scientific literacy among 15-year-olds" conducted by the Program for International Student Assessment, sponsored by the OECD. The assessment

shows American students to be scoring slightly below the average for the group of 30 nations that sponsored the test, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.... The United States posted an average score of 489 on a 1,000-point scale (with the mean set at 500), placing it just above the Slovak Republic and Spain, and just below France and Iceland [and 17th overall]. The top scorer was Finland, with an average score of 563, followed by Canada, Japan, and New Zealand.

A close examination of the results for the United States shows that racial and ethnic gaps in educational performance contributed to the nation's mediocre showing. The average score for non-Hispanic white 15-year-olds in the United States was well above the international average, at 523, but black U.S. students posted a mean score of 409—below the averages for every other OECD nation and all but eight of the 27 non-OECD nations and jurisdictions. The average score for Asian-American students was a 499, while the average for Hispanic-American students was 439.

The entire report is available at the National Center for Educational Statistics.

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December 03, 2007

Servers and SUVs

British environmental group Global Action Plan has released a study [pdf] of the carbon footprint of the British IT industry. They argue that "servers are at least as great a threat to the climate as SUVs or the global aviation industry:"

"Computers are seen as quite benign things sitting on your desk," says Trewin Restorick, director of the group. "But, for instance, in our charity we have one server. That server has same carbon footprint as your average SUV doing 15 miles to the gallon. Yet, whereas the SUV is seen as a villain from the environmental perspective, the server is not."

The report, An Inefficient Truth [actually, "The Inefficient Truth"-- ed.] states that with more than 1 billion computers on the planet, the global IT sector is responsible for about 2% of human carbon dioxide emissions each year – a similar figure to the global airline industry.

Part of the reason is that many IT managers don't have incentives to conserve energy: most neither pay their own energy bills, nor see how much energy they consume. It's a nice example of how turning a real cost being into an externality dulls incentives to conserve-- and makes it harder for well-intentioned people to do so.

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Outsourcing Technical Services - India Today, Anywhere Tomorrow

My trip to Budapest in October was eye-opening on a number of levels, but one that I haven't had a chance to reflect on too much was the suprising level of service jobs being outsourced to Central Europe (and I suspect even further east as well). Alex and I visited Graphisoft Park with Gabor Bojar (sort of the Bill Gates of Hungary) and I was amazed to see how many technical centers were being re-located there - from Germany, Austria, Switzerland and other much higher cost locations. According to Bojar, wages for equally skilled English-speaking engineers in Hungary are significantly lower than Western Europe. Microsoft, Cannon and IBM were some of the companies setting up shop.

India has been the name in the services and business process outsourcing game, and that's sure to continue, but since services in many ways are even more globally mobile than manufacturing, it doesn't seem to be a sustainable lead in the long term. AP ran a piece in November about a similar tech services cluster popping up in Dalian, China. Next up: Accra? Cape Town? Buenos Aires?

Along with SAP, Hewlett-Packard Co., IBM Corp., Britain's BT Group PLC, Japan's Yokogawa Electric Corp. and some 230 other foreign companies have flocked to Dalian in the last decade. Now, a critical mass of development is coming. Ground broke this year for both a $2.5 billion Intel Corp. factory and a $6.5 billion nuclear power plant for the city. Cranes line the busy waterfront as office and apartment towers rise at a furious pace.

Companies say they are drawn to Dalian by a polyglot work force, local spending on communication and other infrastructure, help in hiring, tax breaks for high-tech investment and free rent in the city's brick and glass office park. Wages for a new college graduate in Dalian are about $250 per month, company officials said -- about the same as in India but lower than in Beijing or Shanghai.

The revenue of $1.9 billion generated last year in Dalian by operations such as writing and testing software, operating computer systems and accounting and finance is still dwarfed by outsourcing in Bangalore. The Indian city, Asia's leader in the industry, brought in $11.3 billion from such operations in 2006.

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December 02, 2007

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December 01, 2007

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