About the Institute for the Future

About Future Now


  • IFTF's Future Now draws on research and forecasting at the Institute for the Future, a Palo Alto, CA think tank specializing in the future of technology, health, and organizational change. It began in September 2003.

Who is Future Now?

  • IFTF's Future Now is a group weblog, founded by Institute research director Alex Soojung-Kim Pang in September 2003. Its contributors include IFTF researchers interested in emerging technologies, the future of Asia, and the social and economic impacts on new technologies; IFTF corporate affiliates; academic partners; and members of the Innovation Lab, a Danish futures group with offices in Aarhus and Copenhagen. A complete list of contributors is available here.

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December 18, 2007

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Jason Downs

Sounds good in theory (and practice), but the problem with lists is that they 'trap your thinking'. Don't beleive me? Give someone a problem with multiple (say, 4)solutions, and then provide them with a two X two matrix that seems to provde a solution. Chances are that 99/100 time all you get is an answer that fits into one of the boxes. Ever thought that maybe there might be 6,7,8,9,10 etc solutions? We've been trained to think that the tool (the checklist/matrix) solves the problem. While you are busy following the checklist, you are not thinking for yourself. Sure, you might be adjusting headrests, but are you paying attention to numb fingers? What about sweaty palms? There has to be a balance; and checklists don't provide balance. The secret is to start with the checklist and then switch to independant, creative thought in order to solve problems. The challenge is that most people don't make the jump.

Be careful about offering checklists as solutions. Most of the time checklists only save the lazy and useless from making simple mistakes.

Maybe a better solution would be to properly train (and then provide ongoing training) to professionals who aren't financially tied to 'thruput'. Ask if the system demands quickness instead of care.

Seems harsh? Consider this the other end of the balance.

Alex Soojung-Kim Pang

Jason, Point taken. And certainly all lists or workflows tend to concentrate attention in ways that can be counterproductive.

I think that where something as simple as checklists can make an unambiguous difference for the better is in complex, high-risk situations. Gawande talks about how bomber pilots during World War II adopted checklists to help them fly increasingly complex planes. Likewise, doctors and nurses in ICUs have to make hundreds of small decisions every day, often under pretty stressful conditions; the experience with using checklists when inserting lines radically decreases infection rates, because they serve as reminders of all the things you have to do to put in a line correctly.

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