Don Dodge on The Next Big Thing: MacroMyopia overestimating the short term and underestimating the long term

Don Dodge's blog at Microsoft has a good post on the "long live email" / "email is dead" meme whiplash circulating through Silicon Valley, and why we need to avoid "macro-myopia" in anticipating technological change:

There is a severe case of MacroMyopia spreading across the blogosphere. Today it is The Death of Email. Yesterday it was Inbox 2.0 - Email meets Social Networks. Macro-Myopia is the tendency to overestimate the short term impact of a new product or technology, and underestimate its long term implications on the marketplace, and how competitors will react. [read more]

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