IFTF's Future Now

Get There Early: Outrage and Insurance

[This is an extract from Chapter 3 of Bob Johansen's new book, Get There Early: Sensing the Future to Compete in the Present. The previous extract, on responses to the "VUCA opportunity" in science and leisure, is here; on health and education, is here; a discussion of "the VUCA opportunity" is here; the introduction to the chapter is here. -Ed.]

The Outrage Industry. Out of all the companies with which I have worked, Target is the only one for which a community relations person has been present at every workshop I have done—across the company. Target’s relationships with its local communities are a visible part of its corporate strategy. Target stores are in local communities, and the corporation makes a noble attempt to be active local contributors. Five percent of Target’s profits are dedicated to the local communities they serve.

Just as it is difficult for large corporations to develop intimate relationships with individual customers, it is difficult for a large corporation to engage with many different local communities. Even within a single community where a single Target store is located, there are many different kinds of people and many different views on most issues. Target is very community minded, but the communities it serves are extremely diverse. It is difficult if not impossible to please all community members. Target’s community commitment gets played out in the real world of communities in which people do not always agree on what is appropriate.

Technorati Tags: IFTF, risk, Get There Early, VUCA, Bob Johansen, future

links for 2007-08-31

• Trying to Connect the Dinner Plate to Climate Change - New York Times
  (tags: sustainability food greenhouse_gas)
• "Algorithmic Seeking an Edge," Futures Industry Magazine (July/August 2007)
  "Algorithmic trading in the U.S. futures industry is well past its infancy." The article examines the impact of: attempts to speed up algorithmic trading systems; off-the-shelf software; and efforts by traders to adapt to this faster, data-intense world.
  (tags: economics business computer trading work)
• Node idea | comment | EducationGuardian.co.uk
  "A new science fiction novel is threatening to completely overhaul the way literary criticism is conducted, claims John Sutherland."
  (tags: science_fiction culture search)

Get There Early: Positive Responses in Science and Leisure

[This is an extract from Chapter 3 of Bob Johansen's new book, Get There Early: Sensing the Future to Compete in the Present. The previous extract, on responses to the "VUCA opportunity" in health and education, is here; a discussion of "the VUCA opportunity" is here; the introduction to the chapter is here. -Ed.]

Science in a VUCA World. Science issues fuel confusion, but science can also help us understand the volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity around us. The changes underway in science and technology are vivid and evident to anyone who is paying attention. From stem cells to biotech to global warming, it seems that there is a science and technology story in the newspapers every day, and most of the stories concern both hopes and fears.

IFTF did a study for the government of the United Kingdom that synthesized forecasts of science and technology, thinking out ten, twenty, and fifty years ahead. This was an independent outside look, to provide input to science policy makers in the United Kingdom. In this project, we did a series of expert panels and drew together forecasts from around the world. We created an online exchange among experts as a way of synthesizing the forecasts as the project unfolded.

Technorati Tags: Bob Johansen, future, Get There Early, IFTF, VUCA

links for 2007-08-30

• Workplace Innvotion
  (tags: workspace work UK)

I for one welcome our new computer overlords

The National Academies' Center for Education has been working on a study of the future of computers and work. By 2030, they ask, what kinds of capabilities will computers have; how well will those capabilities prepare them to do jobs currently done by humans; and what proportion of the workforce might be displaced or rendered unemployable?

The results are rather scary. After looking at trends in machine vision, speech, reasoning, and movement, and estimating how important these are for doing various kinds of work, the author estimates that displacement rates could be over 80% in some fields-- sales, administrative support, food preparation, and personal care. These are also the sectors that employ the largest number of people. The safest fields for humans? Law (6%), medicine (10%), science (10%), and engineering (11%)-- fields which currently employ the smallest number of people.

[Source: Stuart W. Elliott, "Projecting the Impact of Computers on Work in 2030," p. 37, available online [PDF].]

A draft of the article is available online, and it has a lengthy description of its methods.

At first glance, it looked to me like there was an obvious flaw in the study. The high rates of replacement in "education, training, and library" suggested a systematic under-valuing of tacit knowledge or the social dimensions of work. If you assume that education is learning facts, and librarianship is finding books-- and nothing else-- then these high displacement rates would make sense, but otherwise they wouldn't. However, the relatively low replacement rates for repairmen and protective services suggests that that's not so. Any method that undervalues teachers isn't likely to also overvalue Larry the Cable Guy.

So the best places for humans in the future will be litigious, technocratic societies that spend a lot on health care. Actually, that sounds a lot like California.

Technorati Tags: computer, future, work

Sue Me, Sue You, Sue Everybody!

In addition to attending the Bandwidth Conference, I moderated a panel there on Saturday afternoon called "Sue Me, Sue You, Sue Everybody!" The topic was, of course, about the impact of the RIAA's rampant lawsuits against music fans who download illegally and, in a few cases, innocent people who somehow get swept up in the lawsuit spree. The panel featured three great intellectual property experts: Eric Steuer (Creative Commons, Wired, and Meanest Man Contest), Jason Schultz (Electronic Frontier Foundation), and Larry Feldman (DMusic and Boycott RIAA).

The panel was videotaped at the request of Larry Feldman. Here's a five minute clip featuring Larry and Jason. Larry talks about Boycott RIAA and explains why Fair Use should be a last-resort defense. Jason talks about the way the marketplace is changing to include new and different infrastructures outside of the major label system, possible payment systems for digital music, and the pitfalls of  tying a business model too tightly to technology.

Enjoy!

Get There Early: Positive Responses in Health and Public Education

[This is an extract from Chapter 3 of Bob Johansen's new book, Get There Early: Sensing the Future to Compete in the Present. The previous extract, which starts the discussion "the VUCA opportunity" is here; the introduction to the chapter is here. -Ed.]

Health in a VUCA world. The threats to health are everywhere, from global pandemics to the products we use in our homes. Health has become a filter for purchase of a wide range of products and services, beyond just response to disease. Now, health criteria are important for food products, beauty products, cleaning products, and even products to ensure healthy housing, air, and water.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), based in Atlanta, is focusing its strategy on global health and safety—but health is what everyone is most concerned about. The CDC has also recognized that, even though it is a U.S. government agency, health is a global challenge. Pandemics are a concern because the world is interconnected in many ways, including the spread of infectious diseases. The dilemma for the CDC, and for us all as a global society, is how to be responsive to treating and preventing disease while creating more effective approaches to long-term health. The vision for the CDC is long-term health. The CDC is attempting to raise the health aspirations of Americans, encouraging us to focus on healthy living within the context of radical uncertainty.

Technorati Tags: Bob Johansen, future, Get There Early, risk, VUCA

links for 2007-08-29

• Venture capital to boost innovation in Arab world - SciDev.Net
  Two venture capital funds have been launched in Oman and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to encourage innovation in science and technology and establish knowledge-based industry in the Arab world.
  (tags: R&D arab middle_east development venture_capital UAE)
• Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies
  (tags: ethics future cyborg)
• Neptune Undersea Observatory
  The goal of the NEPTUNE project is to establish a regional cabled observatory in the northeast Pacific Ocean. The Project’s 2,500-km network of fiber-optic/power cables will encircle and cross the Juan de Fuca tectonic plate in the northeast Pacific Oce
  (tags: blue_economy sensing science oceanography oceans)
• Scientists Create Their Own Web 2.0 Network With NanoHUB
  "NanoHUB.org, a so-called science gateway for nano-science and nanotechnology housed at Purdue University, is taking the tools of Web 2.0 and applying them, along with a few tricks of its own, to further nano-scholarly pursuits."
  (tags: science social_software socialnetworking web2.0)
• Bill St. Arnaud
  "This blog is focused on... user controlled and managed processes that will have a profound effect on the way we do science, education and business over the Internet" such as "web services, service oriented architecture (SOA) and Web 2.0 technologies."
  (tags: blog internet research science web2.0 technology)
• The Reading and Riding Connection
  How NCLB ignores poverty
  (tags: poverty, learning, NCLB, education. VUCA)
• North-West Passage is now plain sailing | Environment | Guardian Unlimited
  "The North-West Passage – the sea route running along the Arctic coastline of North America, normally perilously clogged with thick ice – is nearly ice-free for the first time since records began."
  (tags: arctic northwestpassage north_pole climate_change)

But the good news is we'll save fuel sailing from Asia to Europe

The Northwest Passage will soon be open, and doubtless more intrepid captains sailing between Asia and Europe will be using it. The National Snow and Ice Data Center reports that

Of particular note is imminent opening of the fabled Northwest Passage through the channels of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. This shortcut between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans was first navigated by Roald Amundsen in the early 1900s. It took his group over two years of arduous and dangerous navigation through narrow lanes of open water amongst thick, compact ice. Analysts at the Canadian Ice Service and the U.S. National Ice Center confirm that the passage is almost completely clear and that the region is more open than it has ever been since the advent of routine monitoring in 1972. The Northwest Passage traces from Baffin Bay in the South toward M'Clure Strait.

[from NSIDC; large version here]

I haven't seen an estimate yet of how long it'll be before it's possible to sail along the northern coast of Russia.

[via The Guardian]

Technorati Tags: Arctic, climate, North Pole, Northwest Passage

Get There Early: The VUCA Opportunity

[This is an extract from Chapter 3 of Bob Johansen's new book, Get There Early: Sensing the Future to Compete in the Present. The previous section is available here; an overview of the book is here. -Ed.]

The VUCA world is sparking new ways of thinking and acting—ways to deal with the original dark meaning. The most successful leadership strategy is to flip the danger, like an aikido move in martial arts where you absorb the attack but redirect the energy of the attack in a positive direction. The martial arts teach a relaxed awareness that allows for appropriate and proportionate response, whether that response is an attack, a retreat, or a clever way to manage the dilemma without resort to violence. Aikido practitioners speak of blending with an attack, flowing with its direction and gently spinning it off in a safe direction. The Foresight to Insight to Action Cycle provides a way of engaging with the VUCA dangers in search of opportunities. Such a turnaround is exactly what leaders must do in response to the dangers of today’s world.

Consider microeconomics as practiced by Nobel Prize-winner Muhammad Yunus in Bangladesh:

Technorati Tags: Bob Johansen, future, Get There Early, IFTF, risk, VUCA