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  • IFTF's Future Now draws on research and forecasting at the Institute for the Future, a Palo Alto, CA think tank specializing in the future of technology, health, and organizational change. It began in September 2003.

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  • IFTF's Future Now is a group weblog, founded by Institute research director Alex Soojung-Kim Pang in September 2003. Its contributors include IFTF researchers interested in emerging technologies, the future of Asia, and the social and economic impacts on new technologies; IFTF corporate affiliates; academic partners; and members of the Innovation Lab, a Danish futures group with offices in Aarhus and Copenhagen. A complete list of contributors is available here.

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December 20, 2006

Web 2.0 for Day Traders

Inkling, one of the Institute's technology partners, just launched Worthio - an sort of prediction market meets social site for stock market speculators. The site lets you rate stocks quickly on whether you're bullish or bearish, and presents the aggregate group opinion. You can also add people to your network and watch what they think. There are also discussion around stocks.

Interesting twist - will the "wisdom of crowds" devolve into "herd mentality" on the trading room floor?

Comments

Wow, a new way to frontrun! ;)

Seriously, I think markets are subject to vast amounts of herd mentality and traders struggle to sort through a signal to noise situation that has the unfortunate characteristic that noise can be so substantive that it can capitalize valueless enterprises long enough for them to buy OTHER companies that doe have value, thus backfilling and oddly substantiating the optimistic projections.

In that case, what is noise? At what point does mass hysteria become a valid signal (presumably before the banks fail or someone is crushed in a stampede for the exit doors)?

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