IFTF's Future Now

The Israeli Tech Cluster

I've been thinking a lot about the Israeli tech industry lately, not only because of the current conflict in southern Lebanon which is raining rockets down on my colleague Aharon Kellerman, communications geographer at the University of Haifa, but also because I've been advising Contigo, an Israeli Wifi startup here in Silicon Valley that will be "turning WiFi into a managed mobile social network through seamless bandwidth sharing". In the process, I've been learning lots about how much dynamism and entrepreneurial energy Israel produces.

In our most recent Ten Year Forecast, Alex Pang and I wrote a piece that among other things, looked at how small countries are pursuing strategies of scientific and engineering specialization. Singapore in biotech, Korea in stem cells, etc. Israel has managed to continually leverage the comraderie and world-class technical training of its military officers into success in the communications technology marketplace. As one blog I recently read put it, "how come every 3rd cover of Red Herring is about an Israeli company?" And don't forget ICQ, the service that started the modern instant messaging craze by giving bored soldiers a way to chat.

So keep an eye on Israel... if peace and stability ever get a chance there, it's prospects for technical and business leadership are almost unlimited.

P.S. Just watched an incredible movie about 2 friends from Nablus in the West Bank who sign up for a suicide mission to Tel Aviv - Paradise Now.

links for 2006-07-29

• U.S. defense contractors sending classified work to China? | News.blog | CNET News.com
  "Chinese companies are performing research for classified systems bound for the Defense Department."
  (tags: outsourcing China globalization)

links for 2006-07-28

• Are Cities the new countries?
  "Are we witness to a new era of the secessive city state or the start (strengthening?) of a delusional, parasitic concentration of energy footprints?"
  (tags: geography culture cities globalization architecture)

links for 2006-07-27

• Clipper CS-1
  "The Clipper is a "virtual office", a completely self-contained and enclosed 'capsule', 4' wide, 7' long, and 4.5' high, designed specially for concentrated (and ergonomically correct) computer use."
  (tags: office workstation)
• Softwall
  "The paper softwall is a lightweight, freestanding wall that can be arranged into almost any shape, or easily compressed into a compact sheaf and stored away."
  (tags: office design)

links for 2006-07-26

• ACM Ubiquity - WHY FEATURES DON'T MATTER ANYMORE: THE NEW LAWS OF DIGITAL TECHNOLOGY
  "[I]f there's one lesson to be learned from [Apple's]... recent successes, it is a very simple one: features don't matter any more. Welcome to the Age of User Experience."
  (tags: design technology interface)
• On The Emerging Future of Complexity Sciences
  Two traditions in complexity-- one of which sees complexity "as an emerging phenomenon to be understood," the other "an engineering problem to be tackled"-- are in the process of convering.
  (tags: complexity emergence)
• UT Dallas nanotechnologists demonstrate artificial muscles powered by highly energetic fuels
  "University of Texas at Dallas (UTD) nanotechnologists have made alcohol- and hydrogen-powered artificial muscles that are 100 times stronger than natural muscles, able to do 100 times greater work per cycle and produce, at reduced strengths, larger contr
  (tags: nanotech biomimicry biotech)
• Scientists Say They’ve Found a Code Beyond Genetics in DNA - New York Times
  "Researchers believe they have found a second code in DNA in addition to the genetic code... [that] sets the placement of the nucleosomes, miniature protein spools around which the DNA is looped."
  (tags: biology science genetics)

Swapthing

Recently the Institute hosted a talk by Jessica Hardwick, the co-founder of Swapthing. As she describes it, Swapthing is "eBay for barter, and a system for providing social networking around things." Pretty simple concept, really.

Two things struck me during the talk. First, it's another version of what I first noticed with del.icio.us and ThinkLink: a relatively small outfit that's able to grow thanks to the abundance of IT.

Second, Swapthing is spending infinitely more energy on the social networking and community stuff than on the economics. This might seem counterintuitive, but I suspect it's a smart gamble. One model they're not following is that of barter trading markets, where participants get credit for things they donate, then "spend" that credit on other things. (I also suspect that eBay may have lowered the barrier for auctions enough to challenge systems that rely on proxies for currency; I don't know how you'd test that hypothesis, thought.) There are some tax reasons for staying away from all this-- once you start to handle money, you become an entirely different kind entity as far as the IRS is concerned-- but mainly Swapthing assumes that participants can figure out the value of items on their own, but could really benefit from networking tools. More value can be created by concentrating on the social side, most notably by building the reputation system (which is obviously essential), and giving participants the opportunity to build swap circles and groups (e.g., new moms in Portland, the First Methodist Church of Springfield, Peninsula School families).

There might be a parallel here to a real estate developer who tries to create a vibrant new downtown area. They aren't trying to create new economies; they're trying to create a space that supports economic activity.

Jessica is also interviewed on the wonderfully transparently-titled A Hot Web 2.0 blog from Silicon Valley.

Technorati Tags: collaboration, IFTF, Institute for the Future, social software, Web 2.0

links for 2006-07-25

• MIT makes move toward vehicles that morph
  MIT engineers report they may have found a way for structures - and materials - to move [like birds' wings]... essentially morphing from one shape into another.
  (tags: biomimicry materials)
• Buck Rogers, Watch Out!
  2001 article on NASA's Morphing Project studying "smart" materials -- substances with uncanny properties, such as the ability to bend on command, "feel" pressure, and transform from liquid to solid when placed in a magnetic field."
  (tags: biomimicry flight materials)
• Know It All: Can Wikipedia conquer expertise?
  New Yorker article on Wikipedia, its history, growing pains, success, controvery, etc..
  (tags: encyclopedia opensource wiki cooperation)
• O'Reilly Radar > Bionic Software
  Bionic "systems that combine human and computer activity to produce better results than either can alone are becoming both more widespread and more explicit."
  (tags: AI folksonomy socialsoftware web2.0)
• Mikkel Holm Sorensen, Ph.D.-student
  "My research has focused on issues in biomimetic IT design, i.e. IT designed with support from models of living and complex systems. Biological approaches to IT design are blooming these years and I am convinced that we are one the verge on completely new
  (tags: biomimicry IT design Denmark)
• The Internet Is Your Next Hard Drive
  "New Web-based services don't just store your data online -- they keep it synchronized across your laptop, desktop, and mobile phone." But who's this Pang guy they quote?
  (tags: Internet web2.0 memory)
• "I make $1.45 a week and I love it" | Salon Technology
  Article on MTurk.com, an Amazon site that aggregates small amounts of labor from "turkers." An interesting piece on the complicated economics/motivations of micro-freelancers.
  (tags: economics web2.0 work)
• BigMother.dk
  Mikkel Holm Sørensen's blog. Sørensen completed a Ph.D. at ITU on "Ambient Intelligence Ecologies - Toward Biomimetic IT."
  (tags: biomimicry software IT)
• The Digital Universe Journal
  "The Digital Universe Foundation has established a free online, refereed journal in order to foster important discussion concerning the Digital Universe and all aspects of collaborative and online knowledge dissemination."
  (tags: encyclopedia opensource collaboration)
• The Future of Free Information [pdf]
  "Ultimately the question will become: what sort of massively collaborative information projects deserve the support of the intellectuals of the world?"
  (tags: encyclopedia opensource collaboration)

Household carbon cap and trade in the UK?

According to The Telegraph, Britain's DEFRA is studying the possibility of implementing household cap and trade markets for atmospheric carbon.

Labour plans carbon cap on household energy use

Plans to impose a limit on the amount of carbon that every household in the country is allowed to emit are being drawn up by the Government.

The proposal, which gets one obscure reference in last week's Energy Review, is to impose an overall cap on household energy use, starting in five years' time.

The "cap and trade" scheme, to be administered by energy suppliers who would hand out energy saving equipment to bring down household consumption, would be revolutionary in its effect on how we heat and light our homes....

The proposed new "cap and trade" arrangements would impose a cap on overall household emissions and allow companies to trade any amount of ''undershot'' below that target with other companies by selling them permits to emit carbon, or purchase more permits to pollute if they overshot.

In other words, it would be like the European Union carbon trading scheme now in place for big companies, except that it would be the responsibility of the supply companies, not the domestic user, to reduce household emissions overall....

Cap and trade markets for sulfur dioxide are everyone's favorite example of how markets can be used to reduce pollution; but those succeeded in part because the number of players involved was not very large (when the U.S. implemented cap-and-trade in the 1980s, it knew that power plants were the main generators of sulfur dioxide), and those players could apply (however grudgingly) prior familiarity with commodities markets. Creating enough knowledge about how households are consuming energy and producing (or contributing indirectly to) emissions would, the article notes, "require more snooping about what we use energy for - through smart meters."

Technorati Tags: UK, energy, environment

links for 2006-07-22

• Biomimetic Robots
  Another Stanford project from the Center of Design Research, led by Cutkosky. Sponsorded by the Office of Naval Research, it is a collaboration between Stanford, Berkely, Harvard, and Johns Hopkins
  (tags: Stanford biomimicry us)
• Micro Structures and Sensors Lab - Biomimetics Project
  Another lab from Stanford's Center of Design Research. This project is trying to create a robotic, autonomous cockroach.
  (tags: biomimicry us Stanford)
• Professor Benjamin Wu
  From UCLA Bioengineering, he seems to be the top dog in biomimetics. His research: Biomimetic Microenvironments for Tissue Repair.
  (tags: biomimicry UCLA us)
• Monbouquette Laboratory
  UCLA Chemical Engineering. Research includes biotechnology, Biosensors, Biocapsules, and Nanotechnology.
  (tags: biomimicry UCLA us)
• Deming Group
  UCLA Bioengineering. Research focus is on biomaterials that are prepared from renewable sources.
  (tags: biomimicry UCLA us)
• Digital Biology
  University College London, Computer Science. A really funky interest group that focuses on biologically inspired computation.
  (tags: biomimicry UCL uk)
• Laboratory for Computational Motor Control
  Johns Hopkins Biomedical Engineering. Building a 6 legged cockroach meant to maximize velocity.
  (tags: biomimicry us JohnsHopkins)
• LAMB - Lab for Active Materials and Biomimetics
  Johns Hopkins Mechanical Engineering.
  (tags: biomimicry us JohnsHopkins)
• Biologically Inspired Tactile Sensing
  Johns Hopkins, Mechanical Engineering, Locomotion in Mechanical and Biological Systems Lab. This project is in conjuction with Stanford's Biomimetics Lab and Berkeley's Poly Pedel Lab.
  (tags: biomimicry us JohnsHopkins Stanford Berkeley)
• P3 ceramicsteel writing surface
  Large sheet whiteboard surface. Magnetic.
  (tags: whiteboard)
• Cool Tool: Marker Board Walls
  On creating wall-sized whiteboards.
  (tags: collaboration whiteboard DIY)
• erase-rite
  Whiteboard/projection screen.
  (tags: whiteboard)
• Dry Erase Paint
  Coating that is painted over a surface, then cured with intense light.
  (tags: whiteboard)
• Dry Erase Skin Overlay
  Dry erase surface with adhesive back. $3.25/sf or $5.38/sf for magnetic.
  (tags: whiteboard)

links for 2006-07-21

• Reverse-Engineering of Polarization Vision/Information Sensing in Nature
  A UPenn professor is modeling a visual sensor off of animals whose eyes are sensitive to light's polarization
  (tags: biomimicry us UPenn)
• Sangbae Kim's Biomimetic World
  An entire lab at Stanford devoted to biomimetics and revoluationary direction adhesive.
  (tags: biomimicry us Stanford)