Saffo on Forecasting

I see that Jim McGee reports on a talk that Paul Saffo gave on Forecasting, repeating his quip "... Never mistake a clear view for a short distance." ... Although Paul uses some graphs, this is not about quantitative forecasting. Remembering that Paul is a lawyer and not a mathematician, this is more about rules of thumb you should consider as you go about thinking about predicting if some future might possibly occur. Worth reading.