IFTF's Future Now

links for 2005-04-30

• Robots 'confirm' global warming
  "Scientists using deep-sea diving robots have found the heat exchange between Earth and space is seriously out of balance."
  (tags: robotics environment science c2st)

iPod-cellphone smackdown

For the last few days, Tech Review bloggers have been arguing about whether, in the next few years, we'll continue to carry around several mobile devices (cellphone, iPod, etc.) or whether we'll carry an electronic Swiss Army knife-- a cell phone that also plays MP3s, is a camera, and makes Julienne fries. (Our story to date: It started with a Wall Street Journal article, which Wade Roush critiqued; picked up steam with a Business Week profile of coming "iPod killers," which prompted another response; all this, in turn, inspired an Eric Hellweg reply. It's the kind of exchange that's the very definition of intelligent blogging.)

In the latest turn, Wade Roush makes a subtle-yet-sensible argument in favor of the survival of multiple devices:

Many technologists I've talked with believe that in the long run, the answer will be two: one communications device and one entertainment device. They probably lean toward the two-device solution because, as technologists, they know how difficult it is to build a single device that's good at sending and receiving data wirelessly and good at storing and displaying that data.

But I tend to think the answer is just one.... I think people switch devices during the course of the day, depending on what activity they're engaged in. They may carry a cell phone from 9 to 5, then stuff the phone in their purse or duffel bag and don an iPod for their trip to the gym after work.

So while people will only manually carry or wear one sophisticated PDA-sized device at a time, they'll still own more than one.

In the end, I'm not sure the iPod versus cell phone debate is really an either/or situation; it's more like a Venn diagram.... [T]he iPod circle is not a subset of the cell-phone circle; rather, the two overlap.

This strikes me as right on-- though, to be honest, I'm one of those people who feels naked without his cellphone, and I really liked having my entire music collection in a little tiny box in my pocket (before I broke my 20GB iPod). But certainly, Wade's sense that the real issue to think about isn't just device design, but use and context, is unquestionably the right way to go.

links for 2005-04-29

• The future of engineering education?
  "As part of our current discussion on engineering education, arup.com asked Emma Shepherdson of our New York office to tell us about her recent doctoral work on the subject, completed at MIT."
  (tags: education engineering future c2st)
• U.S.– CHINA COMMISSION HEARING, April 21-22, 2005
  excellent set of resources on S&T in China, challenges to U.S. global leadership, US China high tech dynamics, and so on
  (tags: China Asia technology economics science)
• Xiao Qiang: The Development and the State Control of the Chinese Internet
  XQ's analysis of state of the Internet in China today
  (tags: China Internet government)
• Beijing is dying; Many are crying
  The Olympic drive to modernization is ruining the city forever, says this writer.
  (tags: architecture China city memory)
• photo 1 of the trash mines on China's Hainan island
  (tags: environment China)
• Trash mines, Hainan Island, China. Photo 2.
  has to be seen to be believed...
  (tags: China environment)

New AI Brainwave

Having done corporate work in AI, I have a strong interest in practical artificial intelligence. This Infoweek article is a good overview of the direction of new AI work, by IBM, Intel, Msoft and PARC. Note the mention of Bayesian Techniques as being key.

... Now a new generation of researchers hopes to rekindle interest in AI. Faster and cheaper computer processing power, memory, and storage, and the rise of statistical techniques for analyzing speech, handwriting, and the structure of written texts, are helping spur new developments, as is the willingness of today's practitioners to trade perfection for practical solutions to everyday problems. Researchers are building AI-inspired user interfaces, systems that can perform calculations or suggest passages of text in anticipation of what users will need, and software that tries to mirror people's memories to help them find information amid digital clutter. Much of the research employs Bayesian statistics, a branch of mathematics that tries to factor in common beliefs and discount surprising results in the face of contrary historical knowledge. Some of the new AI research also falls into an emerging niche of computer science: the intersection of artificial intelligence and human-computer interaction ...

links for 2005-04-27

• Feds Rethinking RFID Passport
  The "State Department... is reconsidering a privacy solution it rejected earlier that would help protect passport holders' data" on RFID tags embedded in passports.
  (tags: RFID security)
• Energy Initiative Workshop Series
  Lawrence Berkeley Labs research on alternative energy.
  (tags: environment energy c2st)
• Tiny porphyrin tubes developed by Sandia may lead to new nanodevices
  On the use of porphyrin nanotubes to split water-- and potentially creating a cheap source of hydrogen.
  (tags: energy small_world c2st)
• Outlining Finland’s technological future
  "[T]he Tekes study outline how the organisation wants to align future technology programmes and long-term research funding, as well as promote international cooperation."
  (tags: R&D science technology future c2st Finland Europe)
• Science and Engineering Workforce Project
  2003 dissertation fellowships-- a quick list of people doing interesting stuff relating to the training of scientists and engineers.
  (tags: university education STS technology science c2st)

Rethinking RFID passports

Yet another data-point on just how malleable, still-under-construction a technology RFID is:

Feds Rethinking RFID Passport

Following criticism from computer security professionals and civil libertarians about the privacy risks posed by new RFID passports the government plans to begin issuing, a State Department official said his office is reconsidering a privacy solution it rejected earlier that would help protect passport holders' data.

The solution would require an RFID reader to provide a key or password before it could read data embedded on an RFID passport's chip. It would also encrypt data as it's transmitted from the chip to a reader so that no one could read the data if they intercepted it in transit.

Frank Moss, deputy assistant secretary for passport services, told Wired News on Monday that the government was "taking a very serious look" at the privacy solution in light of the 2,400-plus comments the department received about the e-passport rule and concerns expressed last week in Seattle by participants at the Computers, Freedom and Privacy conference. Moss said recent work on the passports conducted with the National Institute of Standards and Technology had also led him to rethink the issue.

At the Commerce Department conference I attended earlier this month, I heard a couple speakers express concern that while RFID tags were secure enough for supply chain applications, the versions being put into credit cards, and proposed for passports, were way too insecure. It strikes me that if these criticisms aren't either dealt with or disproven, the technology's reputation, and its deployment in other less sensitive contexts, could suffer. Fortunately, in this case, things seem to be moving in the right direction.

RFID Issues

An insightful article in the RFID Journal on RFID tagging application do's and dont's ... while some are debatable, they do cover many of the key issues in play. "... In a study by Allied Business Intelligence, RFID transponders used for supply chain management in 2002 represented a paltry 1 percent of sales volume. Yet by 2007, supply chain usage is expected to represent a whopping 46 percent of the RFID market..."

links for 2005-04-25

• More Research in Europe: Towards 3% of GDP
  "This web page focuses on the Communication "Investing in research: an action plan for Europe" adopted by the European Commission on 30 April 2003, aiming at increasing investment in European R&D to approach 3% of GDP by 2010. "
  (tags: Europe policy science c2st)
• Blogs and the crisis of authorship
  nice paper by Chris Chesher
  (tags: blogging)
• SSRN-Amateur-to-Amateur by Dan Hunter, F. Lastowka
  "[C]opyright law needs to be adjusted in order to recognize the opportunity and desirability of decentralized content, and the expanded marketplace of ideas it promises."
  (tags: copyright law cooperation pro/am)
• What a way to go
  "[W]hat are the greatest threats to humans and can we do anything about them?... 10 scientists talk about their greatest fears and explain how society could be affected."
  (tags: future science c2st)
• NESTA Futurelab: Learning with Digital Technologies in Museums, Science and Galleries
  "In the museum of the future, distinctions between real and virtual, already blurred, will matter even less as both museums and learners better understand the processes of inquiry and of learning itself."
  (tags: future science education museum c2st)

links for 2005-04-24

• Less Filling! Sounds Great!
  "Every now and then I muse on the idea of a futuristic house where any wall or surface area is usable for sights and sounds."
  (tags: displays smart_home ubicomp)
• Smart devices, small worlds
  "[I]n urban environments, our mobile devices are now capable of having conversations amongst themselves, giving us the opportunity to network ourselves along with them."
  (tags: society ubicomp cooperation digital/physical)
• Investment in R&D: A Snapshot of progress, targets and current trends. 24.09.04
  "in 2000, Europe set itself the goal of becoming the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world. As the main driving force behind the creation of new knowledge, boosting public and private investment in R&D was recognised as pivotal
  (tags: future Europe R&D science)

Making Stick Figures Walk

A clever animation of a Genetic Algorithm process (GA), instructive for understanding how difficult problems can be solved with this method. A GA is designed to solve problems that are too difficult to solve using mathematical optimization .. they search through lots of options by using a method inspired by genetics: using population, mutation and crossover. In this simple example a stick figure is 'taught' to walk using a genetic method. Via the Illinois GA Lab blog. Also, GAs and their application.