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  • IFTF's Future Now draws on research and forecasting at the Institute for the Future, a Palo Alto, CA think tank specializing in the future of technology, health, and organizational change. It began in September 2003.

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  • IFTF's Future Now is a group weblog, founded by Institute research director Alex Soojung-Kim Pang in September 2003. Its contributors include IFTF researchers interested in emerging technologies, the future of Asia, and the social and economic impacts on new technologies; IFTF corporate affiliates; academic partners; and members of the Innovation Lab, a Danish futures group with offices in Aarhus and Copenhagen. A complete list of contributors is available here.

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February 01, 2005

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Peter Dreyer

Hmmm, what's even worse, Univ. of Aarhus is only number 101... Despite that it is an interesting list (not the actual ratings, but the concept).

I guess the list would change dramatically, if it was to list universities according to specific faculties. If the list had highlighted science and technology I am sure that universities in Korea, China, India, Israel - and Aarhus would appear in top 40. If you narrow the scope for patent portfolios, the list would probably change again.

Certainly, the list will change over time, but one can hope that globalisation will lead to a convergence in ratings (meaning that the difference between a position as number 20 and 220 is minimal) due to an enhanced exchange of academic resources and collaboration. Otherwise the future looks bleak for the US and Europe (Aarhus being the exception).

Alex

After sleeping on it, I realized one major problem with such a list:

Lots of universities (and even more colleges) don't aspire to global influence, but have strong local or national influence. Seoul National is an excellent example: it's incredibly important within Korean government and business, but not very prominent outside Korea. Likewise, there are lots of universities in small countries that are training-grounds for their nation's elites, but don't register on the global radar.

In a similar vein, American state universities often are notable for two things: production of state elites, and research geared to the local economy. The former isn't something you can convert into global reputation (if I want to get into North Carolina politics, I don't go to the University of Virginia), but the latter can be. Texas A&M and the Colorado School of Mines, for example, both have alumni who run oil companies or ministries in the Middle East or South Asia.

So a reliance on research output measures and awards is going to view an institution through a very narrow window, and miss an awful lot. That doesn't mean such measures are utterly worthless. But we need to be very aware of their limits.

Alex

And I'm sure the list will change a lot over the next 20 years. It'll be interesting to see how many of the top 50 schools are new in 2025. I'll go out on a limb and predict that all the newcomers will be from the Pacific Rim-- mostly China and Taiwan, with at least one from Korea and Australia.

Hyungsub

It's quite embarrassing to find that the "Score on Alumni" for Seoul National University is *0*. Did you know that SNU produced the second highest number of American Ph.D.s only after UC Berkeley?

Alex

Okay, a SECOND problem with the report: no attempt to measure the number of graduates who go on to get graduate degrees. Though since the report was pretty heavily skewed to institutions with graduate schools, that's not necessarily surprising.

And does SNU really produce the second highest number of American Ph.D.s? That's amazing. (Wait: here's the report.)

(Another data point: according to "http://www.taemag.com/issues/articleid.16418/article_detail.asp">The American Enterprise, 2/3 of Korean nationals who get U.S. engineering Ph.D.s are SNU grads.)

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